How the First Nuclear War in the Middle East Began

The American publication Politico recently published a fictional story during the peak of nuclear negotiations between Iran and global powers, describing a future that may unfold with Iran's nuclearization. This story, published on Saturday, December 1, on the front page of Politico's online newspaper, is significant because its author, Matthew Barrows, is a key member of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, whose predictive reports are closely monitored by the White House, State Department, and Department of Defense. "How the First Nuclear War in the Middle East Began" is the title of Matthew Barrows' story, which explains how the current global order is disrupted through a time tunnel. The narrative centers around a character named Jamil Khouri, a Lebanese doctor from an influential and old family, whose members have been involved in Middle Eastern espionage since the 1920s, a decade after World War I when the Ottoman Empire collapsed and a new order emerged in the Middle East, giving rise to Arab countries. In Barrows' story, Jamil plays the role of a spy, unwittingly contributing to the outbreak of nuclear war in the Middle East. The central idea of the author is that Iran has become nuclear-armed, and Saudi Arabia and Israel, dissatisfied and worried about this development, see military action against Iran as the solution. In this context, Jamil must play the role of a spy for Saudi intelligence. In fact, Saudi Arabia, unable to prepare a military response against Iran, needs a powerful ally to rely on, and contrary to expectations, this ally is not the United States but Israel, with Jamil acting as the liaison between Mossad and Saudi intelligence. However, the U.S. has a unique position in Barrows' story, constantly warning about the outbreak of war and its consequences, trying to maintain the current order in the Middle East and the world by any means. Even the U.S. and Iran have come closer to each other, which provides a pretext for the formation of an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Now that the author has gathered all the elements of the story, he seeks a conclusion. If Saudi Arabia and Israel were to crush Iran, how would Iran respond, and would this interaction only affect the Middle East or have broader implications? The next phase in Barrows' narrative is that Iran attacks Saudi Arabia and Israel with nuclear weapons. Israel can somewhat defend itself in this attack, but Saudi Arabia cannot. However, Israel also suffers significant damage from attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah, and similar groups. Meanwhile, major humanitarian disasters occur in Iran and Saudi Arabia due to nuclear radiation, with the number of victims reaching hundreds of thousands. The international scene is also filled with fear and madness that seems uncontrollable. Oil prices soar to $400 per barrel. The U.S., having withdrawn its fleet from the region to avoid nuclear attacks, imposes economic sanctions against Israel and Saudi Arabia. Moscow threatens to target any of the involved parties if they do not agree to a ceasefire. In the absence of the U.S., China gains more power in the region, and Japan, feeling threatened by this, turns to nuclear weapon production. All these elements are part of a scenario that Matthew Barrows prophetically warns will occur in the future, reminiscent of apocalyptic tales that imagine the collapse of the dominant world order and the emergence of evil from this collapse. This is not the first time a story about nuclear conflict in the Middle East has been written. Paul Erdman wrote the famous and bestselling book "Fall 79" in 1976. In this story, the Shah of Iran, having acquired nuclear technology, intends to seize the oil-rich region of the Middle East and declare an Iranian empire. The conflict and nuclear explosion in "Fall 79" render the oil regions of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait inaccessible for over twenty years, leading the Western world into an unprecedented crisis.