How Was Haniyeh Killed? A Review of Various Scenarios

The killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the former head of Hamas's political bureau, and his personal bodyguard, Waseem Abushaban, in the early hours of Wednesday, August 1, in the heart of Tehran, has once again escalated tensions between Israel and the Iranian government to the brink of direct military confrontation. The elimination of the Hamas leader occurred just hours after his attendance at the swearing-in ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian, the new president of Iran, coinciding with Israel's deadly attack on Fouad Shukr, the highest-ranking military commander of Hezbollah and the right-hand man of Hassan Nasrallah. Although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for Haniyeh's assassination, senior officials of the Islamic Republic pointed fingers at this country from the very first moments of the news breaking. Generally, the scenarios regarding how the former Hamas leader and his bodyguard were killed can be categorized into two groups: an attack using projectiles or a bombing at their residence. Over the past eight days, global media have published various reports on the circumstances of Ismail Haniyeh's death, citing different intelligence and military sources. While the Islamic Republic and specifically the Revolutionary Guards claim that Israel killed Haniyeh by firing projectiles at his residence, foreign media, quoting Western and some Iranian intelligence and security officials, confirm the validity of the second scenario. The Persian section of Voice of America, which cannot verify or confirm any of the reports, briefly reviews the main reports presented in defense of both scenarios. Bombing Scenario: On Thursday, August 2, just one day after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh and his personal bodyguard, The New York Times reported, citing seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians and one American official, that the Hamas leader was killed due to the explosion of a bomb planted at his residence. According to The New York Times and based on statements from five Middle Eastern officials, this bomb was planted about two months ago in a guesthouse managed and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This location is part of a large area known as 'Neshat' in an upscale neighborhood in northern Tehran. The five sources told The New York Times that after confirming Haniyeh's presence in his room, the bomb was detonated remotely. The New York Times reported, citing three Iranian officials, that the security breach in protecting Haniyeh's residence was a 'catastrophic failure' of intelligence and security for the Islamic Republic and a 'shame' for the Revolutionary Guards. Two Iranian officials from the Revolutionary Guards also told The New York Times that the explosion shook the building, broke windows, and caused minor wall collapses. The New York Times added that Haniyeh had stayed at this guesthouse several times during his previous visits to Tehran. The report noted that the method of concealing the bomb in Haniyeh's residence remains unclear. Middle Eastern officials stated that planning and executing the operation took months and required extensive surveillance of the area. Two Revolutionary Guards officials told The New York Times that Ziad al-Nakhala, the leader of Islamic Jihad, was present in the adjacent room to Ismail Haniyeh. According to them, little damage was done to Nakhala's room, indicating careful planning of the attack on Haniyeh. They compared the high precision and complexity of this operation to the deadly operation that led to the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of the senior figures in the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Axios also reported on Thursday, August 2, similar to The New York Times, citing 'two informed sources,' that Haniyeh was killed by the explosion of a bomb that had previously been planted in his room. Axios reported that Mossad agents inside Iran detonated the bomb remotely after confirming Haniyeh's presence in his room. They stated that this bomb was a device with advanced technology that utilized artificial intelligence. Axios noted that Israel conducted the operation to kill Haniyeh without prior notification to the United States, and American officials were informed only after the successful operation. Additionally, CNN reported on Thursday, August 2, citing 'an informed source,' that the bomb that killed the former Hamas leader had been secretly planted in his room two months prior. CNN also reported, similar to Axios, that U.S. officials were informed after Haniyeh's killing by the Israelis. On the same day, the Jerusalem Post independently confirmed that Ismail Haniyeh was killed by the explosion of a bomb planted in his room. This Israeli newspaper reported, citing its sources, that the bomb was planted in June of this year and was equipped with advanced remote control technology that had been used in the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. The Jerusalem Post refuted the Islamic Republic's claim of a missile attack on Haniyeh, citing statements from Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli army, who said on Thursday, August 2, that Israel did not conduct any airstrikes anywhere in the Middle East on the night of Fouad Shukr's killing, which was the same night as Ismail Haniyeh's death. Another major report on how the former Hamas leader was killed was published by the British newspaper The Telegraph on Friday, August 3, which claimed that the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, had collaborated with elements from the Revolutionary Guards to plant a bomb in Haniyeh's residence and kill him. According to this report, security elements from the Revolutionary Guards' Ansar al-Mahdi, responsible for protecting locations and personalities, collaborated with Mossad to plant explosives in three separate rooms of the building where Ismail Haniyeh primarily resided, detonating it from outside Iran on the morning of Wednesday, August 1. A Revolutionary Guards official also told The Telegraph that they are now certain that Mossad had hired Ansar al-Mahdi's security personnel. The report added that the operatives of this operation were seen in surveillance camera footage secretly entering the rooms and leaving after a few minutes. According to the report, these individuals had left the country before the operation on Wednesday but were connected to a contact inside Iran. Another Revolutionary Guards official told The Telegraph that they are now certain that Mossad had hired Ansar al-Mahdi's security personnel. He also added, 'After further investigations, additional bombs were discovered in two other rooms.' Another Revolutionary Guards official told The Telegraph that this operation was a major humiliation for the Islamic Republic and a significant security failure. This official added that currently, factions within the Revolutionary Guards are accusing each other of failure, and Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, has ordered the expulsion, arrest, and possibly execution of several suspicious Guards members. The Jewish Chronicle published one of the most detailed reports on how Ismail Haniyeh was killed on Tuesday, August 15. According to this report, the operation to plant the bomb under Haniyeh's bed was carried out by two Mossad operatives in the Ansar al-Mahdi Guards about nine hours before the deadly explosion. According to the Jewish Chronicle, security camera footage seen after Haniyeh's killing indicates that two members of Ansar al-Mahdi secretly entered his room, left after three minutes, and entered a black car, later being extracted from Iran by Mossad. The report stated that Mossad had several opportunities to kill Haniyeh on Qatari soil but had refrained from doing so due to the country's crucial role in negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages. Projectile Attack Scenario: Hamas, like its supporter the Islamic Republic of Iran, accused Israel of the killing from the very first moments the news broke and promised that it would not go unanswered. Khaled Qaddumi, whom the United States considers 'the liaison between Hamas and the Iranian government,' claimed in an interview with the London-based news outlet Al-Arabiya on Friday, August 3, that 'the appearance of the site after the attack and what happened there and the body of Ismail Haniyeh indicate that targeting was done with an air-launched projectile like a missile.' Al-Mayadeen, a news network close to Hezbollah, reported on Wednesday, August 1, citing 'an Iranian source,' that the deadly operation against Haniyeh was carried out 'using a missile fired from another country, not from within Iran.' It rejected the previous day's report from The New York Times that Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a bomb that had been planted in his residence in Tehran about two months earlier, stating, 'At exactly 1:37 AM, the building where we were stationed shook; the intensity of the shaking was such that I thought it was thunder or an earthquake. I opened the window and saw neither rain nor thunder, then went to the fourth floor where Haniyeh was and realized that the wall and ceiling of the place he was in had collapsed, and he was killed.' Meanwhile, the public relations office of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed in a statement on Saturday, August 5, that Ismail Haniyeh was killed by 'the firing of a short-range projectile.' According to this statement, the projectile 'was fired with a warhead weighing about seven kilograms... from outside the guest accommodation area.' The Revolutionary Guards claimed in another part of their statement that Israel had 'designed and executed' this operation and that the U.S. government had 'supported' it. The Revolutionary Guards concluded their statement by threatening that they would respond to Haniyeh's killing at 'the appropriate time, place, and manner.' However, Amwaj Media, based in Britain, reported on Wednesday, August 1, citing an Iranian security official, that the operation to kill Ismail Haniyeh may have been carried out by a drone or quadcopter following the espionage of one of his security team members. Amwaj Media noted that it could not confirm this claim and reminded that the Islamic Republic might have made this assertion to divert blame from its intelligence failure. Consequences of Ismail Haniyeh's Killing: Despite the various reports published by different global media and the contradictory claims made by Iranian officials, the Revolutionary Guards, and Iran's proxy groups regarding the circumstances of Ismail Haniyeh's killing, tensions between the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups in the Middle East on one side and Israel and its allies, particularly the United States, have once again escalated to the brink of direct confrontation. The common denominator of the narratives presented by international media, based on statements attributed to Israeli, Iranian, and other countries' intelligence and security sources, is the Islamic Republic's intelligence and security failure in protecting Ismail Haniyeh. This comes at a time when various political, military, and intelligence officials of the Islamic Republic have repeatedly claimed their 'intelligence and security oversight' within Iran and the region despite the elimination of numerous military officials and 'nuclear scientists' over the past decades. However, by emphasizing the claim of a projectile or missile attack on Ismail Haniyeh's residence in Tehran, it seems that the Islamic Republic is attempting to divert public attention from this intelligence failure to the 'violation of Iran's sovereignty' by the Israeli government. Therefore, it can be said that the unreliability of the Islamic Republic in protecting the lives of officials of proxy groups and even its own high-ranking officials is another consequence of this 'catastrophic failure' of intelligence and security.