IAEA Director General: Iran Has Materials Necessary to Build Several Nuclear Bombs

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for the agency's involvement in recent talks between Iran and the United States, warning that Iran is not far from the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Rafael Grossi stated in an interview with Le Monde on Wednesday, April 27, that "although Iran has the necessary materials to build not just one, but several bombs, it does not yet have a nuclear weapon." His remarks were made on the day he traveled to Tehran. Mr. Grossi added, "This situation is like a puzzle where the pieces are available, but they have not yet been connected. There is still distance to achieving a complete weapon. However, it must be acknowledged that this distance is not great. Over the past four years, the pace of Iran's activities in this area has been very significant." Rafael Grossi arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for a two-day visit and is scheduled to meet with Iran's Foreign Minister on the same day and with Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization, on Thursday. Mr. Grossi's visit to Tehran comes before the next round of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. He emphasized in his interview with Le Monde that without the agency's participation, any agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program would have no meaning and would merely be "a piece of paper." The Director General added that for an agreement to be meaningful, "there must be a strong verification and monitoring system that only we can provide." Mr. Grossi stated that the purpose of his visit to Tehran is to "rebuild trust" and "restore the scope of the agency's technical oversight," which has diminished since the suspension of the JCPOA and the end of the implementation of additional protocols. According to previous agency reports, Iran's high-concentration uranium reserves provide enough raw materials to build more than six nuclear bombs. Tehran's lack of cooperation with agency inspectors, along with the production of uranium enriched close to weapon-grade, are among the main reasons for the increased tensions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The U.S., Israel, and other Western countries seek to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. However, Donald Trump, during his first term as President in 2018, unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, which was designed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Subsequently, Tehran gradually began to renege on its commitments under this agreement. Trump has recently threatened to consider military action if Iran does not agree to limit its nuclear program. Iran and the U.S. began discussions about a potential new agreement on April 22 in Muscat, the capital of Oman. Both sides described the more than two-hour consultation as "respectful and constructive" and agreed to continue the talks. Meanwhile, the U.S. President has simultaneously dispatched B-2 bombers and aircraft carriers to the region while sending negotiators to reach an agreement. Axios reported on April 27 that "U.S. officials disagree on which path will be more successful, but they agree that without an agreement, the likelihood of war is high." One U.S. official familiar with internal discussions told Axios, "Iran's policy is not very clear, as it is still being formed. It is a complex issue, as it carries significant political weight." On Monday, Trump held a meeting in the "Situation Room" about Iran with his senior advisors, where officials with differing views were also present. The same U.S. official told Axios, "There are different approaches, but no one is shouting at each other." According to the report, one faction, informally led by Vice President J.D. Vance, believes that a diplomatic solution is both desirable and achievable; and the U.S. should be prepared for some compromises to reach an agreement. Another U.S. official stated that Vance plays a prominent role in discussions related to Iran policy. In this faction, Steve Witkoff, Trump's representative who participated in the first round of negotiations with Iran, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are also present. This group also enjoys external support from figures like Tucker Carlson, an influential figure in the MAGA movement close to Trump. Axios reports that this group is concerned that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities could put U.S. forces in the region at risk of retaliation from Iran. They also argue that a new war in the region would significantly increase oil prices at a critical time for the U.S. economy. The news website adds that on the other side, a group including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is highly skeptical of Iran and doubts the possibility of reaching an agreement that would genuinely curb Iran's nuclear program. Senators close to Trump, such as Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) and Tom Cotton (Arkansas), share this view. According to this report, this group believes that Iran is currently in its weakest position and therefore, the U.S. should not compromise but insist on the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, and if Tehran does not cooperate, either directly attack Iran or support an Israeli attack. Some figures like Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also strongly support this approach. He told Axios, "The President once called the Obama agreement in 2015 a deeply flawed agreement. Now the question is whether he still adheres to that belief or not." Dubowitz warned against accepting "a half-baked version of the Obama agreement."