Identification of a Highly Mutated COVID Variant; Mahan Ghafari: We May Enter a New Wave

A highly mutated new variant of the coronavirus, after being observed in the United States, Israel, and Denmark, has also been identified in the UK, putting countries on high alert. Scientists are trying to understand how widespread the new variant is and how resilient our immunity is against it. This highly mutated variant, named 'BA.86.2' and nicknamed 'Pirola' on social media, includes over 30 amino acid changes in the spike protein compared to the 'BA.2' subvariant of Omicron. The last time the virus had such significant mutations was with the emergence of Omicron. The World Health Organization has classified this new highly mutated variant as a 'variant under monitoring,' a designation that encourages countries to track and report genomic sequences. Dr. Mahan Ghafari, an epidemiologist and virus evolution researcher at the University of Oxford in the UK, told VOA that since the WHO declared the end of the emergency status, the level of virus tracking and genomic sequencing in countries has decreased. Dr. Ghafari stated that in Iran, over the past three years, not much data has been collected, and there has been no good assessment of the overall spread of the virus across various regions due to 'minimal data,' although Omicron subvariants have also been circulating in Iran. He added that it is unclear what subvariant is currently circulating in Iran. Pedram Pak-Aein, spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Health, stated that sequencing tests to determine the variant and subvariant are conducted on about 200 cases per month, especially regarding foreign travelers and at borders. Pak-Aein mentioned that the 'AG5' or 'Eris' variant has not yet been identified in Iran. Nevertheless, COVID-19 cases in Iran have been on the rise in the past two weeks. Dr. Ghafari commented on monitoring new COVID variants in Iran, saying: 'In Iran, information is more limited, less accessible, reports are less frequently updated, and we do not know whether there is a vaccination planning status for the fall or whether vaccines will be updated.' Dr. Mahan Ghafari stated: 'The emergence of new subvariants reminds us that we have ongoing circulation of COVID in all countries.' He emphasized that given the upward trend in statistics, we may enter a new wave of COVID, and this issue should be monitored in the coming months. With the arrival of fall, many countries, including the United States and several European nations, are preparing to re-vaccinate individuals over 65 or those at high risk. New updated COVID-19 booster vaccines targeting the 'XBB' subvariants of the virus are expected to be available in the U.S. by late September. Moderna has announced that its new vaccine is effective against the 'Eris' variant as well. Many countries worldwide are currently using bivalent mRNA-based vaccines that have been updated for Omicron. However, Mostafa Qanai, a member of the National Coronavirus Vaccine Committee in Iran, recently stated that 'there is no need to create a new vaccine for every mutation of the virus.' Previously, Younes Panahi, Deputy for Research and Technology at the Iranian Ministry of Health, stated that Iran, like other countries, is using 'existing vaccines.' Meanwhile, the only vaccine available in Iran to combat Omicron is 'Barakat Plus,' which has only had two preprints published. The Barakat vaccine, which received approval in June 2021, still does not have its phase three clinical trial article available. Another pressing issue currently affecting countries is addressing diseases whose treatments have been delayed due to the COVID outbreak over the past three years. Dr. Mahan Ghafari noted that during this time, individuals being treated for other illnesses, who were at greater risk from COVID, were overlooked, and healthcare systems have been under pressure, a situation that has been noticeable in the UK. He mentioned another neglected issue is individuals with immune deficiencies who are at risk of severe COVID hospitalization and are unable to eliminate the infection caused by COVID. Now, with the arrival of cold weather, countries are striving to better protect this vulnerable segment of society to receive existing treatments, including Pfizer's Paxlovid pills and updated vaccines in a timely manner.