Impact of Recent Explosions on Political Landscape in Turkey

Following the explosions in Ankara on Saturday, some analysts pointed fingers at the Turkish government and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Do you agree with these analyses and do you think that given the tensions between the government and the PKK, the AKP was involved in these explosions? Toraj Atabaki: The recent developments in Turkey have led many observers, particularly those supportive of the Kurds, to blame the Turkish government as the perpetrator of the explosions in Ankara. However, I believe that while the Turkish government can exploit this situation for propaganda against the Kurds and shape the political atmosphere in Turkey in its favor ahead of elections, the notion that it itself is behind these explosions should be viewed with skepticism. This is because these explosions have very concerning repercussions for the Turkish government. A government that claims to be a centralized, powerful state cannot ensure security for its citizens in its own capital. This indeed paints a picture of Turkey to the world as a country that lacks necessary security. It is noteworthy that one of the major fault lines of the Turkish economy is the tourism industry. Therefore, the AKP, Erdoğan, and Davutoğlu are worried about projecting an image to the world that Turkey is not a safe country for tourists, and if we face a decrease in the number of tourists in Turkey, which we have already seen signs of in recent months, this could significantly harm the Turkish economy. Mr. Atabaki, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu announced on Monday that all investigations regarding the explosions point to ISIS and that this group was involved in the explosions. What benefit does ISIS gain from the bloody explosions in Ankara? Let me first say that Mr. Davutoğlu acted hastily and repeated the usual refrain that the Kurds and radical left and Islamic groups must be behind this story. However, when much evidence became apparent, Mr. Davutoğlu attempted to adjust his position and has now set aside the Kurds and only focused on ISIS. But if we look at this situation from ISIS's perspective, ISIS could have two main objectives for such behavior, namely the explosion we had in Ankara. First, it emphasizes its long-standing enmity with the Kurds, drawing many supporters of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) into a kind of passivity, telling them not to come out into the streets, not to support this party, and that if they do, they should expect consequences like this. This passivity among the supporters of the HDP means that this party will not be able to shine in the upcoming elections in Turkey. This is exactly what ISIS wants. ISIS does not want the HDP to emerge from the next elections in a way similar to the previous elections, where it secured a significant number of seats in the Turkish parliament and could play a role in Turkey's policymaking. ISIS is trying its utmost to ensure that if a new government is formed in Turkey after these elections, it is entirely from the AKP. In recent years, ISIS has found it easier to coexist with the AKP in power, having had various forms of collusion, military, political, logistical, and so forth. Therefore, a centralized government from the AKP in Ankara is preferable to ISIS than a government that is a coalition of various parties, including the HDP. Finally, what will be the impact of these explosions on the early parliamentary elections in Turkey? The AKP believes that events like the explosion in Ankara will turn people away from the opposition parties, especially the HDP, and that it is the AKP government that can provide stability and security for Turkey, thus we will inevitably return to a single-party AKP government in the next elections, just as we have had in the past 12 years. However, I believe this is a hasty judgment. What we see is that not only are the supporters of the HDP becoming more active and coming out, but many who have been sidelined in recent years and had no interest in participating in elections are now coming forward, saying that there must be an end to these tensions, one side of which is the AKP and the Erdoğan-Davutoğlu government. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the Republican People's Party (CHP) has also aligned with Erdoğan's opponents, stating that the only way out of the current crisis is for more people to participate in the elections in favor of opposition parties and to limit the AKP's seats to a number that cannot form a single-party government without a coalition.