Important Friday Prayers by Khamenei; What is the Leader of the Islamic Republic Seeking in His Speech on October 5?

The Leader of the Islamic Republic will deliver a speech as the Imam of Friday prayers in Tehran on October 5, after about five years. His last Friday prayer was on January 17, 2020, approximately two weeks after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Khamenei's website previously announced that a memorial ceremony for Hassan Nasrallah, the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Lebanon, and Abbas Nilforoushan, the deputy operations commander of the IRGC, both killed in an Israeli attack on Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, will also be held concurrently with his Friday prayers. The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, while the European Union has placed its military wing on its blacklist but does not classify its political wing as terrorist. The political wing of Hezbollah also has representatives in the Lebanese parliament. Khamenei's Friday prayer occurs three days before the first anniversary of the Hamas extremist group's attack on southern Israel, which is recognized as terrorist by the U.S. and the EU, and eight days after the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the most significant figure of the Islamic Republic's proxy arm. Various speculations have arisen regarding Khamenei's motivations for attending today's Friday prayer. AFP reported that his statements could clarify his views and approach for Tehran's next steps following the missile attack on Israel. Some social media users have described Khamenei's presence at today's Friday prayer merely as a 'declaration of presence' to warm the hearts of the Islamic Republic's supporters. Supporters of the regime believe that their pressure for a response to recent Israeli actions compelled Khamenei to 'order' a missile attack on the country. They also consider Khamenei a 'brave' individual and assess his presence as highly significant in the rivalry between the Iranian government and Israel. On social media, Khamenei's presence at today's Friday prayer is either deemed important or insignificant, with almost no middle ground presented regarding this attendance. Significant developments have occurred in the five-year gap between Khamenei's last Friday prayer and today's. These include two rounds of lackluster parliamentary elections in 2019 and 2023, and presidential elections in 2021 and 2025, indicating a growing disaffection among citizens towards the government. The widespread 'Women, Life, Freedom' protests in Iran, which began in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Jina Amini, a Kurdish girl from Saqqez, while in the custody of the morality police over mandatory hijab, have also transformed the landscape of civil and political activities in Iran. Internationally, significant events include Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump in the previous U.S. presidential election, the October 7 attack by the Hamas extremist group on Israel that led to the Gaza war, and escalating tensions between Iran and Lebanon with Israel, as well as two missile attacks by the Islamic Republic on Israel and Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, which has brought Iran closer to Russia, particularly in the exchange of military achievements used in this invasion. After Khamenei's last Friday prayer as Imam, Donald Trump, who ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, was defeated and is now attempting to return to the White House. Trump's action in killing Soleimani is regarded as a turning point in the U.S. and Israel's approach towards commanders and figures known as 'resistance' supported by the Islamic Republic. Khamenei has typically delivered speeches on significant religious and political occasions since assuming leadership of the Islamic Republic. Previously, during his presidency, he frequently participated in Friday prayers and delivered fiery speeches; however, since becoming the leader, he has often attended Friday prayers to clarify a political event or dispute, delegating the role of Imam of Friday prayers to other clerics. His speech on June 18, 1981, in Tehran's Friday prayer, delivered after the dismissal of then-President Abolhassan Banisadr, was one of his historical speeches as a member of parliament. A few months later, he became president. Khamenei's first appearance in Friday prayers as the leader of the Islamic Republic was in July 1989, where he emphasized 'following the path' of Ruhollah Khomeini. On January 7, 1999, in response to the chain murders, he condemned the killings but supported the Ministry of Intelligence, stating, 'Such incidents, as far as we know, occur even more frequently in all security services worldwide.' In September 2007, he addressed the issue of the new Middle East and Hamas and Palestine, calling September 11 a 'pretext' for the U.S. to 'overthrow' Saddam Hussein and install a puppet government neighboring Iran and besiege the Islamic Republic. In that Friday prayer, he supported Hamas's victory in Gaza and its rise to power in that region, stating, 'The U.S. plan to create a new Middle East centered around Israel' was thwarted by Hamas's victory. In June 2009, just days after the controversial presidential election results favoring Mahmoud Ahmadinejad led to widespread protests in Iran, he delivered a speech that resulted in violent confrontations with protesters, widespread arrests, and the house arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi Karroubi. Khamenei, on February 4, 2011, amidst the ongoing 'Green Movement' in Iran and the so-called 'Arab Spring' revolutions in the region, referred to the motivation behind the Arab revolutions as 'Islamic awakening.' In his Friday prayer on February 3, 2012, he emphasized that 'Israel is going to be eliminated; it should not remain and will not remain,' asserting, 'We support any group that fights against the Zionist regime and we have no hesitation in saying this.' Khamenei did not attend Friday prayers from 2012 to 2019, and only the killing of Qassem Soleimani prompted him to speak again as the Imam of Friday prayers in Tehran. On January 17, 2020, following Soleimani's assassination and Iran's attack on the Ain al-Asad U.S. base in retaliation, he defended the attack on Ain al-Asad, stating about the Ukrainian passenger plane, 'This very bitter incident truly burned our hearts and hurt us, but some, following American and British media, try to use this tragic incident to overshadow that glorious funeral and that decisive response of the IRGC.'