Increase in Right-Wing Party Seats in Romanian Parliament Despite Ruling Party's Dominance

Despite the increase in right-wing seats in the Romanian Parliament, the ruling Social Democratic Party maintained its position as the main party in the country's legislative body. By the early hours of Monday, December 12, after counting over 99% of the total votes, this party secured nearly 23% of the votes, solidifying its status as the most powerful party in the Romanian Parliament. The Social Democratic Party, along with the National Liberal Party, were the two main parties in the previous parliament and formed the core of the coalition government led by Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. Following Mr. Ciolacu's defeat in the first round of the presidential election, he also stepped down from the leadership of the Social Democratic Party. On the other hand, the far-right party 'Alliance for the Union of Romanians' (AUR) managed to more than double its votes compared to the elections four years ago, claiming over 18% of the total votes and becoming the second-largest party in Parliament, replacing the National Liberal Party. Observers suggest that the rising popularity and votes for this right-wing party are linked to the high vote for Colin Georgescu, the right-wing and Kremlin-leaning candidate in the Romanian presidential election. Mr. Georgescu unexpectedly advanced to the second round of the presidential election as the top candidate. Although Colin Georgescu is not a member of AUR, he is supported by this party in the second round of elections. However, due to the challenge to the results of the first round of the presidential election, the Romanian Constitutional Court must decide whether the second round of elections with Colin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi will take place on the previously scheduled date of December 18. The increase in parliamentary votes for the far-right was not unexpected given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the presidential election, as this faction attempted to portray itself as a 'victim.' Consequently, the National Liberal Party, belonging to the center-right, fell to third place with 14% of the votes, while the center-right party of Ms. Lasconi became the fourth-largest party in the new parliament with over 12% of the votes. The far-right parties S.O.S and 'Romania's Youth' (POT) also managed to enter Parliament for the first time, securing 7.6% and 6.3% of the votes, respectively. According to the Romanian Constitution, parties must have at least 5.5% of the votes to enter Parliament. The party representing the Hungarian minority in Romania, known as the 'Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania' (UDMR), will also be present in the new parliament with approximately 6.5% of the votes. If the parliamentary election results are confirmed, it is likely that a pro-Western coalition government led by the Social Democratic Party will be formed again, although the right and far-right parties will hold a strong position in the opposition. However, the Social Democratic Party will face many challenges in forming a strong and inclusive coalition government. Significant disagreements among various parties over issues such as political restructuring and especially the 8% budget deficit, which is the highest in the entire European Union, will pose many obstacles to creating a broad coalition. The results of the Romanian parliamentary elections indicate an increasing social divide in the country, which includes some of the poorest regions in the European Union. After a campaign primarily influenced by voters' concerns about the budget deficit and rising living costs, right-wing candidates were able to significantly strengthen their position in Parliament by capitalizing on widespread public dissatisfaction with the main pro-Western parties. The far-right parties also consistently spoke about the potential for Romania to be drawn into war with Russia, emphasizing the current government's support for Ukraine, and strongly criticized what they called 'the government's preference for Ukrainian refugees over Romanian citizens.' On the other hand, the formation of the next Romanian government is tied to the presidential elections, as the president is the one who appoints the individual they prefer for the premiership to form the government. Meanwhile, on Friday, December 9, the Supreme Constitutional Court postponed its decision on confirming or invalidating the results of the first round of the presidential election until Monday, December 12. The unexpected results of last week's elections, which led to Colin Georgescu, the right-wing and nationalist candidate, taking the lead, have fueled doubts about the possibility of interference in these elections. Romanian officials claim to have evidence of interference by 'foreign agents.' The Constitutional Court has ordered a recount of nearly 9.5 million ballots and is also examining the possibility of annulling the first round of elections. If annulled, Romania will witness a repeat of the first round of the presidential election in two weeks, with the final round of elections postponed to the end of 2024, about four weeks later. In such a situation, the fate of the next prime minister will not be clear until 2025.