Increased Russian Military Presence in Syria: Causes and Consequences

From the second half of 2012 until the end of 2014, Bashar al-Assad's forces achieved significant victories against their opponents, leading the Russians to believe that the Damascus ruler could militarily decide the fate of the ongoing battle in his favor. During those days, these consecutive victories overshadowed the Geneva Statement released on June 30, 2012, which emphasized a political solution and the formation of a transitional government for all Syrians, causing both Russia and the Syrian government to distance themselves from this statement. Despite such victories for Assad's army, there was no longer a necessity to pay attention to the provisions of the Geneva 1 negotiations. However, everything changed in the past eight months, as Assad suffered heavy defeats on all fronts, with opposition forces reaching the borders of Latakia, Assad's hometown. Recent battles opened the front in Damascus between 'Jaish al-Islam,' led by Zahran Alloush, and the military forces of the army and Hezbollah. The military situation for Assad worsened daily, causing great concern for his two supporting countries, Russia and the Islamic Republic. A division of labor had been established between these two countries regarding their presence in the Syrian war geography. Iran supported the regions of Damascus and Homs, while Russia designated the coastal areas, especially Latakia and Tartus, as its defensive perimeter. 'Jaish al-Fatah' reached the buffer zone between Assad's forces and his opponents in 'Sahl al-Ghab' by capturing Idlib in the northern fronts. In this area, there is a village called 'Jorin' to the west, which Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, referred to as 'Leningrad' for Assad's forces, meaning it must not fall; otherwise, the opponents will advance to Latakia. However, in recent weeks, Russian military experts assessed that this front could not resist against Jaish al-Fatah for a long time. Therefore, it became necessary for Russian forces to intervene directly in this area. Concurrently with the arrival of Russian forces on the Syrian coast, Jaish al-Islam attacked the 'Asad neighborhood' in the outskirts of Damascus and took 25 checkpoints from the control of Syrian government soldiers. Currently, Damascus is on the verge of a complete siege, and published reports indicate that the people of the capital are gradually losing the calm of the past two years, with UN officials speaking of a new wave of displaced people from Damascus that may escalate in the coming days. This operation has been carried out to downplay the military presence of Russia in Syria, but it is still too early to speak of the ineffectiveness of Russian forces in Syria, as there has not yet been a real confrontation between these forces and Assad's opponents. In central Syria, the forces of the 'Islamic State' (ISIS) have reached near Homs after capturing Palmyra, and this movement could put significant pressure on the capital. Currently, Damascus is on the verge of a complete siege, and reports indicate that the people of the capital are gradually losing the calm of the past two years, with UN officials speaking of a new wave of displaced people from Damascus that may escalate in the coming days. Russia's unsuccessful efforts to maintain Assad's position intensified in recent weeks as Russia sought to revive the peace process and return to the Geneva negotiations. The advance of ISIS in central Syria on one hand and the fragmentation of Assad's forces on the northern and southern fronts on the other made a return to the Geneva negotiations necessary for the Russians. Russia repeatedly emphasized in its diplomatic exchanges that if the Assad regime collapses, chaos would prevail throughout Syria, giving terrorists more space to operate. With this reasoning, Russia proposed forming a coalition consisting of Bashar al-Assad, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey to counter ISIS. This proposal sent the message to Assad's opposing countries that the Damascus ruler remains at the center of Russia's political equation, and Moscow is unwilling to set him aside. Previously, in the developments in Yemen, the Russians acted in favor of Saudi Arabia, and during the approval of UN Security Council Resolution 2216 against the Houthis, Russia did not veto this resolution. Therefore, Russian officials expected their Saudi counterparts to cooperate with them regarding Syria. In this context, Saudi officials somewhat cooperated with the Russians. They agreed for General Ali Mamlouk, head of Assad's security organization, to go to Jeddah and meet with Mohammed bin Salman, the Deputy Crown Prince, Minister of Defense, and head of the King's office. This meeting took place, according to Al-Hayat newspaper, on July 7. The 'Russia Al-Youm' television wrote on its page that Russia is trying to unite Saudi Arabia and Bashar al-Assad against ISIS. This meeting occurred 20 days after Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Moscow and meeting with Putin. In these efforts, Russia was very hopeful of finding a new way to resolve Syrian affairs. Although this meeting was the first meeting of a Syrian official with a Saudi official since the protests began in 2011, it was not a simple meeting given the complexity of the Syrian crisis. Ali Mamlouk asked Saudi officials to cut their support for the Syrian regime's opponents. Mohammed bin Salman accepted this request, on the condition that Iranian forces and Shia militias withdraw from Syria. The subsequent stages of this meeting progressed towards holding presidential and parliamentary elections under the supervision of the UN, but it seems that both parties faced obstacles in their initial request, resulting in no outcome, as Saudi Arabia's request for Assad was impractical, and the Russians could not do anything in this regard. After more than a month of the futility of such a meeting, Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi Foreign Minister, explicitly spoke about Bashar al-Assad's participation in Syria's political future during his visit to Moscow in August, stating that his country sees no place for Bashar al-Assad in Syria's future. These statements prompted Russia to consider alternatives for its diplomatic efforts in Syria, which is the direct deployment of Russian forces to the ongoing battle in Syria. The first positioning of U.S. officials regarding the increased Russian presence in Syria indicates that the United States is very sensitive to this event, and this sensitivity has been communicated to the Russians through Secretary of State John Kerry. On the other hand, the Russians have sent their latest armored creations, such as the A 82, which was unveiled in 2013, to Syria, indicating that Russia wants to stabilize its presence in the coastal areas of Syria by any means possible. One aspect of U.S. sensitivity relates to the interpretation of this Russian military intervention in Syria as a confrontation with the coalition forces that are fighting against ISIS. In this regard, necessary warnings have been given to the Russians. However, it does not seem that the United States desires a confrontation with Russia on Syrian soil. It is unlikely that serious positioning by U.S. officials will ultimately lead to a confrontation with Russia. On the other hand, the Russians also do not seek confrontation with the U.S., but it may not seem that they will reconsider their decision to send forces to Syria. Furthermore, the Russians have sent their latest armored creations, such as the A 82, which was unveiled in 2013, to Syria, indicating that Russia wants to stabilize its presence in the coastal areas of Syria by any means possible. This could mean that even if Bashar al-Assad falls, the Russians will remain in this area and will not allow other forces to enter. This Russian action signifies the fragmentation of Syria, and the Russians are not afraid to pursue their interests through it. Such a Russian presence could also have negative consequences for Syria's neighbors, especially Turkey, which is considered an important member of NATO and hosted the chiefs of staff of the 28 NATO member countries in Istanbul last Saturday. Hulusi Akar, the Chief of the Turkish Army, in his remarks at this meeting, without referring to Russia's entry into the Syrian war, told his guests: 'You have come here at the right place and at the right time. Today, Turkey is situated among three crises: Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine, which threaten not only regional security but also global security.' Turkey has accepted more than two million Syrian refugees and wants to create a safe zone in northern Syria to alleviate this burden. Russia's entry into the Syrian war, especially its air force, may create problems for this region. Another consequence of Russia's entry into the Syrian war will be the radicalization of Assad's opponents. Thus, a large number will join ISIS to fight against the 'infidel occupying forces,' and therefore, Russia's entry will not only fail to solve any problems but will further encourage ISIS to expand its terrorist activities and 'justify' them. In the meantime, new forces will join ISIS, and jihadist slogans will be heard among Islamic groups more than ever before.