Increased Washington-Tel Aviv Interactions Ahead of Iran's Oil Sanctions

As the U.S. prepares to reinstate sanctions against Iran, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, who has traveled to Israel, met with the Prime Minister of Israel to discuss coordination between the two countries regarding Iran. The Israeli Prime Minister deemed these sanctions important for 'containing Iran's aggressive behavior.' Simultaneously, an Israeli cabinet minister stated that the sanctions, effective from November 4, will 'greatly harm Iran.' Steven Mnuchin, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, tweeted on October 21 after meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, that they discussed 'U.S.-Israel cooperation in combating terrorism, enforcing Iran sanctions, and expanding economic relations.' This was Mnuchin's second official visit to Israel since he took office. Netanyahu also tweeted that in this meeting, he called for stopping Iran's 'dual aggressive program; achieving a nuclear arsenal and conventional weapons' and 'Iran's plans for dominance in the Middle East.' Netanyahu likely referred to Iran's long-range missiles when mentioning 'conventional weapons.' According to Netanyahu, the JCPOA 'did not block Iran's path to obtaining a nuclear bomb but effectively paved the way for them to achieve a nuclear arsenal; it provided them with hundreds of billions of dollars in cash, credit, and investment, and financed their increasing aggression.' Additionally, according to the Jerusalem Post, Netanyahu once again praised Donald Trump, the U.S. President, for withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran, adding that this step has 'intensified global pressure on Iran, the main terrorist and aggressive regime.' The U.S. exited the JCPOA on August 6 and implemented the first round of sanctions against Iran, which received the most support from Israel. In recent months, Netanyahu has lobbied in Europe to persuade three European powers to also exit the JCPOA; although he was unsuccessful, he emphasized that with European companies withdrawing from cooperation with Iran for fear of U.S. secondary sanctions, 'the JCPOA is effectively dead' and Europe's efforts to remain in the JCPOA 'are futile.' According to Israeli media, ahead of November 4 and the implementation of a new round of U.S. sanctions, which Washington has declared aims to 'reduce Iran's oil exports to zero,' U.S.-Israel coordination against Iran has expanded. According to Haaretz, a joint team from the U.S. Treasury and the Israeli Ministry of Finance has been formed as part of this close cooperation against Iran. Moshe Kahlon, Israel's Finance Minister, recently visited the U.S. to discuss this with his counterpart. Meanwhile, Ayelet Shaked, Israel's Justice Minister, who is also a member of the country's security cabinet, stated that the new U.S. sanctions 'will be very painful for Iran.' Shaked, a leader of the right-wing 'Jewish Home' party, also told the Jerusalem Post that her country 'will use everything in its power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb if the sanctions are not sufficient' and is prepared to 'enter other avenues.' This Israeli minister did not provide further details but it seems to imply a threat of military action against Iran. She also stated that it is important to wait and see what effect the upcoming sanctions will have on Iran. Some experts say that in the past decade, Israel has used the tactic of threatening military action against Iran, both directly and implicitly, as leverage on global powers to implement Israeli objectives against Iran. Iran, which has always emphasized the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, has remained in the agreement following the U.S. exit from the JCPOA and is awaiting more practical proposals from Europe to preserve the JCPOA. Last month, the three European powers presented a mechanism called the 'Special Financial Instrument' to support the JCPOA, one of the main goals of which is to protect the interests of European companies; according to Federica Mogherini, the EU's foreign policy chief, this proposed mechanism 'will likely be operational before November.' However, Iran has requested more serious and practical actions from Europe against the U.S. to safeguard the JCPOA. On the other hand, some international experts have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the European plan to create a special payment channel to facilitate trade with Iran and circumvent the unilateral but powerful U.S. sanctions, pointing to the repeated exit of medium and large European companies from the Iranian market and their distancing from cooperation with Iran. Iran acknowledges that U.S. sanctions have had significant effects on the dire state of its economy since mid-summer but emphasizes that the U.S. goal of 'reducing' oil exports to zero will not be realized, claiming that it has 'new customers for its oil.' Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, emphasized several times two weeks ago that the U.S. sanctions effective from November 4 will not have a practical impact on Iran, as he stated that any sanctions the U.S. could have imposed have already been implemented. Despite this 'assurance' from Hassan Rouhani, the U.S. Treasury Department has recently implemented a series of new sanctions against Iran; several major banks, including Bank Mellat, large companies such as Tractorsazi, Isfahan's Mobarakeh Steel, and other major economic institutions in Iran have been sanctioned due to connections, even distant ones, with the military organization Basij. As the sanctions against Iran are reinstated, the Tehran government and the Israeli government, which have been fierce regional enemies for the past four decades, are strengthening their alliances.