Increasing Tension Between Houthis and Riyadh on the Eve of the Fourth Year of War in Yemen

This was the third time in about six months that Saudi Arabia was targeted by Houthi missiles. The recent action by the Shia Houthis came just as the Yemen war is entering its fourth year. This time, they launched 7 missiles, some of which flew towards Riyadh. Others targeted strategic points in 4 southern cities of Saudi Arabia. Media close to the Houthis from Sanaa reported that the target of the Burkan missiles launched towards Riyadh was King Khalid International Airport. According to reports from Riyadh, following the impact of Houthi missile shrapnel, an Egyptian national lost his life and two other Egyptians were injured. Saudi officials stated that all Houthi missiles were intercepted and destroyed in the sky before hitting their targets. This claim is not agreed upon by all missile research observers, who say that in previous instances, Riyadh made similar claims, but the Burkan missile from the Houthis hit its target due to its two-part design. Hussein Aryan, a military analyst residing in Britain, explains this approach of some observers: 'Generally, Saudi Arabia uses the PAC2 Patriot type. This type is for intercepting short-range ballistic missiles that do not separate their warhead from the body. This means that the missile launched by the Houthis should go intact towards the target. However, evidence shows that the Burkan missile used by the Houthis, at least in one case, when the missile reached its final phase, meaning the dive phase, split into two parts, with the motor and guidance section separating and the warhead containing explosives heading towards the target, which Saudi Arabia could not destroy.' Hussein Aryan believes that mediation by a third party is the only way out of this crisis and states: 'It has become clear for both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as other actors including the United States, that the Yemen issue has no military solution and must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.' Aryan mentions that the type of Patriot used by Saudi Arabia, the effectiveness of this system, and the low accuracy of Saudi forces in using this system could be reasons why some say Saudi Arabia has not been successful in intercepting Houthi missiles. However, whether these Houthi missiles were destroyed in the sky or landed in Saudi territory and hit their targets, Riyadh officials point the finger of blame more than any other group towards Tehran. Turki al-Maliki, spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition in the war against the Houthis, described the missile attack last night as a violent and hostile act, stating that it was carried out by Iran-backed Houthis, and this action, according to al-Maliki, showed that the Iranian regime continues its military support for this armed group. Observers assess the Yemen war as a proxy war between Tehran and Riyadh, and from the beginning, Tehran has been accused of equipping the Houthis in Yemen. However, in recent months, the trend of condemning Iran by regional and Western countries has intensified. On Monday, a research group (Conflict Armament Research) announced that it had found evidence that roadside bombs in Yemen are similar to Iranian models used in Iraq and by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Analysts like Peter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), who may have previously raised doubts about the extent of Iran's support for the Houthis, now say that all available evidence indicates some form of Iranian support for the Shia Houthis. Wezeman states: 'If we look at the reports from UN experts, including the investigations by this group CAR and others, there are many signs that some equipment or parts have come from Iran, whether it be remnants of weapons found inside Yemen or, for example, missile remnants that were previously fired towards Saudi Arabia. These new parts must have come from somewhere. The information this group has directs all accusations towards Iran. All of this can be denied and dismissed as a conspiracy, but if I say today that it is Iran, it is based on evidence that is currently very convincing to me that Iran or someone in Iran, whoever it is, is providing this equipment to the Houthis.' However, the Yemen war, which began with Saudi attacks to oust the Houthis from the capital Sanaa and restore power to Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, is now entering its fourth year with about 8.5 million people in Yemen at risk of famine. The famine and chaos, which the UN says can be managed with humanitarian projects worth $350 million, is a figure that the organization states is very insignificant compared to the military costs of this war. Also, on the eve of the anniversary of this war, Amnesty International criticized the actions of Saudi Arabia and its allies, stating that these countries could be brought to court on charges of war crimes. On the other hand, a survey in France has indicated the willingness of the people of that country to cut military aid to Saudi Arabia. However, these efforts to prevent military conflict have not led anywhere for three years. Hussein Aryan believes that mediation by a third party is the only way out of this crisis and states: 'For both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as for other actors including the US, it has become clear that the Yemen issue has no military solution and must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. The attacks carried out by Ansar Allah are actually to have the upper hand in the diplomatic aspect. In contrast, Saudi Arabia also wants these attacks to cease in order to talk with the Houthis and for the Houthis to lay down their arms. In my opinion, the Houthis will not accept this precondition. The best way may be for a country like Oman, as reported, to lead the diplomacy and then continue this process until a result is reached.' Over the past three years, the Yemen war has left more than ten thousand dead and over 53 thousand injured. 22 million people in Yemen need humanitarian assistance, and the war has exacerbated the worst cholera outbreak in modern history, with over a million reported cases of cholera.