Increasing the Real Impact of the Opposition through the Virtual Space

The results of a study indicate that the opposition to the Islamic Republic's use of information and communication technology has played a significant role in changing public opinion in Iranian society and has created limitations for the regime to counteract. This research, titled 'Examining the Impact of Information and Communication Technology on the Activities of the Illegal Opposition to the Islamic Republic of Iran,' was published in the latest issue of the scientific-research journal 'Security Studies' affiliated with the Islamic Republic's army. The importance of this research lies in the fact that it was conducted by a group of researchers from the Islamic Republic's army, whereas previously, such studies were mainly conducted by the Revolutionary Guards under the title of combating 'soft warfare.' According to the findings of this study, information and communication technology has facilitated the activities of the Islamic Republic's opposition by creating communication facilities, easing information dissemination, and providing the groundwork for executing 'psychological operations and soft warfare.' The opposition, considering global and regional developments as well as some internal issues such as nuclear negotiations and human rights in recent years, has easily found the means to influence public opinion and engage in general and organizational communication using new communication facilities (internet and satellite), posing a threat to the regime. Researchers concluded that 'the Islamic Republic is currently facing a virtual and unidentifiable opposition, with the internet being its most important refuge.' Accordingly, information-communication technologies have favored decentralized and cellular networks over other organizational forms by reducing communication and coordination costs; some opposition groups have utilized this to reform their structure and dynamism, redefining their organization based on the internet's network structure. The report states: 'Technology has enabled the opposition to create numerous websites and connect to the global network, continuously planning and executing extensive psychological operations against the Islamic Republic by highlighting internal weaknesses and deficiencies, as well as making accusations in various areas, including human rights, supporting terrorism, and destroying national resources and assets by government officials under the pretext of defending movements and groups in other countries such as Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and the construction of weapons of mass destruction, and reflecting this to international forums.' The statistical population of this study included 61 specialists and experts from Iran's intelligence community, randomly selected from 138 experts, managers, and scholars. In addition to library studies, the research focused on the responses of these individuals to a questionnaire consisting of 16 questions related to the research variables. The geographical scope of the research topic was Iran, and the time frame covered recent years, especially the past five years, during which information and communication technology has developed and become nearly ubiquitous in the country. 81.97% of respondents had a favorable opinion regarding the content of the first hypothesis of the research, which stated that the opposition's use of information and communication technology has increased their influence on Iranian society. 77.5% of respondents also agreed to a high degree that the use of new technologies by opposition groups has faced the government's countermeasures with limitations. The opposition in this research is considered as a group or groups whose demand is to oppose the ruling political structure and change the political regime through peaceful (political) means or violent overthrow. Researchers categorized the opposition into legal and illegal (overthrowing) groups and generally into left and right, focusing on the 'illegal' opposition in their study. Initial investigations revealed that opposition groups rarely use traditional methods anymore and conduct their 'propaganda and psychological operations' using new, more effective, and much more complex methods than before with the help of information and communication technology. The results of this research indicate that communication technologies have updated methods, reducing the costs and risks of activities for the opposition. Quick access to information and conducting affairs without considering geographical distances and independent of time constraints are considered the most central achievements of information technology; in this research, they are viewed as a threat and a factor undermining the national security of the country and one of the most important tools used by the opposition to challenge the regime. Researchers expressed concern that these technologies have 'enabled individuals and groups to pursue their political, propaganda, psychological, and organizational goals from a distance, using only a computer, modem, and telephone line, and to engage in an 'information war' against the government.' According to this report, 'this situation has compelled the regime to enter a 'permanent information battle,' which has significantly impacted the regime's resources, acceptance, and legitimacy.' Information and communication technologies have enabled the opposition to create virtual gatherings and associations, which the regime faces serious challenges in identifying their members domestically. Changes in the opposition's activities with technological advancements Researchers noted that since 1991, the organizational structure of the opposition has shifted from hierarchical to group-based, the method of activity has changed from predominantly secret to completely open, pseudonyms have disappeared, and activities have transitioned from 'hard overthrow' to 'soft overthrow.' Accordingly, the most important factor in changes in the opposition's performance after the 1990s has been the advancement of communication-information technologies. According to this research, these changes include the ease of conducting organizational actions, reducing costs, lowering risks, improving the quality of propaganda-psychological actions and their ease of execution, facilitating the receipt and transfer of financial assistance, increasing cohesion among the opposition, timely and immediate organizational guidance, and the ability to receive such guidance throughout the country, impacting international institutions and human rights organizations through 'fabrication,' promoting targeted rumors, and inciting the public to achieve the 'evil goals of global arrogance,' creating a gap between the people and the regime's officials by highlighting inefficiencies and spreading secularist thoughts in society. The increased speed of internet usage in Iran and the rise in the number of internet users in the country from less than one million in 2001 to about 28 million or 38% of the population in 2009 have raised concerns among the researchers of this study. They concluded that opposition activities in Iran have not been as widespread since the 1979 revolution, and access to online media such as blogs, Facebook, Twitter, and discussion groups has created an alternative media for the opposition to more easily shape public opinion against state media.