Initial Poll Results of Israeli Elections; Netanyahu and Gantz Claim Victory

Moments after the 15-hour voting period ended in the 21st parliamentary elections in Israel at 11:30 PM Iran time, three television networks in the country released sample ballot results; Netanyahu immediately declared victory. According to the sample ballots from the state television network "Kan", the "Blue and White" coalition led by Benny Gantz secured 37 seats, while the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu obtained 36 seats out of a total of 120 Knesset seats. Sample ballots from Channel 12 assessed 37 seats for "Blue and White" and 33 seats for Likud; sample ballots from Channel 13 predicted 36 equal seats for both "Blue and White" and Likud. Acceptable results from the actual votes will be published early Wednesday, April 21, and the official and final election results will be released next week due to the need for sufficient time to count the votes of diplomats residing abroad and soldiers. Benjamin Netanyahu, minutes after the sample results were announced, thanked the voters in a statement and declared the "victory" of Likud based on the majority of the right-wing coalition, stating that he would start contacts to form a new government. However, spokespeople for the "Blue and White" coalition emphasized in their initial comments that they had obtained the most seats and that the formation of the government should be entrusted to them. The number of seats held by a party does not necessarily make its leader the prime minister; rather, the strength of the right-wing coalition or the left and center coalition determines the outcome of the elections. Benjamin Netanyahu, the 69-year-old leader of the Likud party who served as prime minister once in the 1990s and has held the position for three consecutive terms in the last ten years, appeared to be in a fierce struggle for his political survival more than ever. Three generals, Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya'alon, and Gabi Ashkenazi, all former chiefs of staff, along with Yair Lapid, leader of the "There is a Future" party, formed the "Blue and White" coalition two months ago in hopes of sending home the statesman whose leadership in Israel will soon surpass that of David Ben-Gurion, the founder of Israel. Meanwhile, the sample results from television networks may differ from the actual votes, a phenomenon that has occurred in the past. Experts in Israeli media emphasize that a complex situation has arisen and that we must wait for the counting of the last actual votes. Reuven Rivlin, the President of Israel, will consult with leaders and delegations from all parties that have secured seats in the Knesset in the coming days to determine whether they support Netanyahu's or Gantz's premiership. Until the last moments before the polling stations closed, Netanyahu urged Likud supporters and right-wing backers that Likud needed to secure the most seats to form the next government. Netanyahu's campaign strategy, suggesting that "the country is falling into the hands of the left with Arab support," apparently encouraged many supporters of right-wing and religious parties to vote for Likud, considering the severe weakening of right-wing and religious parties. In his election campaign, Netanyahu particularly highlighted his close friendship with the U.S. President and emphasized three political achievements over the past year: the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, and the designation of the entire Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization from the U.S. perspective. He had previously stated that convincing Donald Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the JCPOA was the result of his efforts. In the final days leading up to the elections, he also indicated that the historic rapprochement of Arab and Islamic countries with Israel was his achievement by showing a map of the Middle East in his office. This week, he "swore" that if he remains prime minister, he will annex large Jewish settlements in the West Bank to Israel. Voter turnout in this country, which has averaged around 65% in recent elections, apparently decreased slightly this time; the unprecedented abstention of Arabs in the Israeli territories from going to the polls has reduced the overall participation rate in the elections. Benny Gantz and other opponents of Netanyahu campaigned with the slogan "Bibi Go Home," telling Netanyahu: you have been a leader for a total of 13 years, enough, go home. One-third of the parties have secured seats. 41 parties and lists registered for this election and were approved by the election oversight committee; however, it seems that 11 to 15 parties and lists managed to secure seats. The threshold for entry into the Knesset for each party has increased this time, reaching at least 3.25% of the votes, equivalent to four seats; Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the "Israel Our Home" party, who initiated the increase in the threshold, seems to have become a victim of this initiative himself. More than 6.3 million Jews and Arabs aged 18 and above among the approximately 9 million population of this country had the right to vote. Israelis living abroad have never had the right to participate in voting, and only diplomats residing abroad vote. It seems that this time the Arab parties have been significantly weakened in the composition of the Knesset; meanwhile, Arabs constitute more than 20% of Israel's population. It has been said that the severe frustration of Arabs in the 1948 territories, especially from the so-called Jewish Nation-State Law that Netanyahu passed last year, which describes Israel as a country exclusively for Jews, is the cause. Many observers in Israel express confidence that even if Netanyahu manages to form his fifth government in coalition with right-wing and religious parties, the corruption and breach of trust investigations against him opened by the prosecutor will lead to new elections in the coming months. It is estimated that in that case, new elections could be held in 6 to 9 months unless Netanyahu protects himself from any prosecution and trial for as long as he is the leader of the country by passing an unprecedented law in the Knesset. In this context, Netanyahu's new promise: the annexation of settlements in the occupied West Bank to Israeli territory.