Intensification of Gasoline Imbalance in Iran; Daily Consumption Record of 152 Million Liters Set

The gasoline imbalance and its ramifications have entered the new year of 1402, with a new historical record of gasoline consumption set at 152 million liters per day on the 29th of Esfand. This record and the increase in the country's average consumption occur while, according to media reports, gasoline production in 10 refineries in Iran, under optimal conditions, is a maximum of 117 million liters per day. However, this figure, according to some experts, is achieved by including petrochemical gasoline, which is technically unauthorized and carcinogenic. The website 'Noor News,' affiliated with the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic, has described the increase in gasoline consumption in the country as a 'major challenge' and announced that the Ministry of Oil is resorting to strategic gasoline reserves to supply the country's fuel stations. On the first day of the new year, Jafar Salari Nasab, CEO of the National Oil Products Distribution Company, reported that daily gasoline consumption has increased by 25 million liters compared to the same time last year. Noor News, with a security perspective on gasoline, has reviewed consumption statistics in recent years and stated that the increase in daily gasoline consumption from 88 to 122 million liters in just two years is an issue that cannot be overlooked, as $80 billion, which is twice the country's oil revenues, is spent annually on fuel subsidies. The concerns arising from gasoline consumption and its costs have compelled the government to seek price increases and reductions in quotas, an event that could have social repercussions; repercussions that were last seen in November 2019 with the killing of protesters against the gasoline price increase during Hassan Rouhani's administration. However, the government, without regard for these repercussions, is preparing public opinion for this action, and in this regard, the advisor to the Minister of Economy stated on the 18th of Esfand 1402 that an increase in gasoline prices in Iran is inevitable and that the government must first communicate with the people through authorities, scholars, and experts before raising gasoline prices. These remarks followed the announcement by the Deputy of Industries and Energy of the Transport and Fuel Management Headquarters in an interview with the 'Ham-Mihan' newspaper on the 15th of Esfand, regarding the government's plans for gasoline, including the elimination of government gasoline quotas and increasing its price to 3,000 tomans in the final step. Kazem Azizi emphasized that if the government seeks to control consumption, this action can only occur with a price increase from 1,500 tomans to 15,000 tomans. The 'Ham-Mihan' newspaper also referred to sanctions and currency problems, quoting Kazem Azizi as saying that 'the situation is critical.' Alongside these statements, media and experts close to the government are continuously discussing the gasoline imbalance and the budget needed for imports to prepare public opinion for gasoline changes. In this context, Hashem Orayi, head of the Union of Scientific Energy Associations, reported on the 6th of Esfand last year about a $4 billion import of gasoline and diesel and stated that Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, expressed dissatisfaction with 'why we should have gasoline imports.' The ILNA news agency also reported in Bahman last year, based on information from its reporter in the corridors of parliament, that the government intends to move towards a three-tier pricing system for gasoline starting next spring by reducing the free gasoline quota or the 3,000 toman gasoline. Over the past year, Voice of America has reported several times, citing statements from Islamic Republic officials and media emphasis in Iran on the necessity of consumption management and comparing consumption in Iran with other countries, about fundamental changes in the gasoline sector. Ahmad Vahidi, the Minister of Interior, stated on the 15th of Azar that 'one liter of our gasoline is cheaper than one liter of water.' Voice of America also reported, based on these statements, that the legal requirements and approvals in the 'Seventh Development Plan' and the budget for the year 1403, alongside the statements of Islamic Republic officials, indicate a significant event in the gasoline sector. Regarding officials' and some parliamentarians' references to the necessity of economic surgery, some experts have said that any manipulation of gasoline prices will lead to intensified economic pressures and disrupt political and social relations in Iran. The increase in gasoline prices during Hassan Rouhani's presidency in November 2019 led to widespread protests in Iran. In response to these widespread protests, the Islamic Republic resorted to suppressing the protesters. In this context, Reuters reported on the 2nd of Dey 98 that about 1,500 people were killed in the protests and quoted three sources close to the leader of the Islamic Republic stating that Khamenei had instructed government and security officials to 'do whatever is necessary' to stop the protests.