Intervention, Fear, and Self-Goal by Khamenei

The leader of the Islamic Republic continues to attempt to influence the process and outcome of the elections using the unique platform at his disposal. Ayatollah Khamenei, in his latest remarks, has clearly shown solidarity with the most extreme positions of the conservative camp and has once again clarified the depth of his authoritarian perspective. He emphasized that the 'enemy' seeks to create a 'false dichotomy' in the elections, referring to a 'government' and 'anti-government' parliament, and tried to mobilize and rally the social base supporting the regime along with military, paramilitary, security, and ideological networks aligned with the central power to form the parliament he desires. He stated that 'the nation wants a brave and religious parliament that is not intimidated by America; that does not fall for the enemy's tricks; that values dignity and independence and stands against the ambitions of powers that have been cut off from Iran and want to return; a parliament that obliges the government to an endogenous economy.' These remarks clearly target the supporters of the government, reformists, and moderates. At the pinnacle of the political system, amid the formation of a dichotomy (against the hardliners of the conservative camp and the attempt to achieve a social surge to prevent figures like Jannati, Yazdi, and Mesbah from entering the Assembly of Experts), and in fear of the consequences of this in the two upcoming elections, he made a significant and biased statement: 'If the enemy praises a certain group or individual with the aim of creating division among the people, express disgust immediately and take a stance against them.' This statement aligns with the harshest headlines and reports from Kayhan newspaper and the comments of political actors in the authoritarian camp. Khamenei's new remarks came just days after his sharp reaction to the social wave forming against the hardliners; last week he expressed a pointed and harsh opinion reflecting his fear of the results of the upcoming elections, stating: 'An English radio is instructing the people of Tehran to vote for this person, not to vote for that person! What does this mean? That is why we say in elections, people should enter with insight, awareness, and knowledge; to know what the enemy wants; when you know what the enemy wants, you act contrary to it; it is clear... the issue is important.' The head of the political system is visibly anxious about the failure of his closest appointees and allies to enter the Assembly of Experts; if he cannot achieve his desired outcome in this stage (the electoral competition) and by any means (from mobilizing his supporters to extensive and costly advertising with the help of the IRGC and Basij), he will inevitably resort to actions that may be far more costly (such as the Guardian Council's interference in the results of the sixth parliamentary elections or blatant fraud in the 2009 presidential elections), which would further question the legitimacy and democratic authority of the central power and the leader himself. It is noteworthy that according to the constitution, based on Article 110 (the duties and powers of the Supreme Leader), Ayatollah Khamenei has no direct duty or authority in the realization of elections. However, with the right to choose six clerics of the Guardian Council, he effectively plays a significant role in filtering electoral candidates indirectly. The role of these six clerics becomes prominent, especially in the elections for the Assembly of Experts; because only these six — and not all members of the Guardian Council — evaluate and finalize the qualifications of candidates for the Assembly of Experts. This process led to the disqualification of almost all non-affiliated candidates in the upcoming elections. A few days ago, Ahmad Jannati candidly announced: 'Some of the devils said we should let some people into the Assembly of Experts who think about leadership; however, the Guardian Council rejected their qualifications as much as it could.' The disqualifications, according to the Secretary of the Guardian Council, not only included clerics supporting the Green Movement (like Ayatollah Dashtgheib and Ayatollah Amjad) but also affected well-known reformist clerics such as Mousavi Bejnourdi, Ansari, and Montajabnia, as well as prominent clerics like Soroush Mohalati and Ghorvian; and ultimately even prevented Seyyed Hassan Khomeini from running. Regardless of the repeated endorsement of Jannati by the Supreme Leader and the continuous privilege and credibility that the head of the political system bestows upon the Secretary of the Guardian Council, Khamenei's intervention goes beyond the record of his appointees and their arms in the Guardian Council. For example, after the controversial and ambiguous elections of 2009, in his important and famous speech at Friday prayers in Tehran (June 19, 2009), he sought to end any protest or question regarding the elections by making a decisive statement and judgment about the elections. He declared: 'The competitions are over. The Islamic Republic does not betray the votes of the people. The legal mechanisms of elections in our country do not allow for fraud. Anyone involved in electoral issues and knowledgeable about electoral matters confirms this; especially with an eleven million difference! Sometimes the difference between two votes is a hundred thousand, five hundred thousand, a million; now one might say they did something to cheat, they switched them; but how can one cheat with eleven million!?' Khamenei's numerous biases during electoral periods (from his expressed preference and the political groups aligned with the leadership for Nateq Nuri in the 1997 presidential election to his significant and meaningful support for Ahmadinejad in the 2009 presidential election) have certainly intensified the bipolar atmosphere in society: on one side, the dissatisfied social layers from the government (especially the cultural middle class and political, social, and artistic elites), and on the other side, the core of power and the military-security and ideological institutions. In the midst of this bipolarity, a considerable portion of the social strata hesitant to participate in the elections or lacking the necessary motivation to go to the polls, affected by the intensifying competitive atmosphere and deepening divisions and challenges, stand opposite the Supreme Leader. From this perspective, Khamenei's new remarks can perhaps be evaluated and described as an unintentional 'pass' for 'scoring an own goal' in favor of the hardliners and extremists, as well as revealing the first person's fear of the formation of a parliament different from his desired outcomes or the failure of appointees like Jannati, Yazdi, and Alamolhoda.