Iran and America Negotiations: A Quarter Century of 'Direct' and 'Indirect'

Relations between Tehran and Washington were severed following the 444-day hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy. In the years following that event until the rise of Mohammad Khatami's government, especially during the Iran-Iraq War, there were few developments that could be classified as 'diplomatic.' Two notable examples in this context are the Iran-Contra affair and Iran's role in freeing Western hostages in Lebanon. However, by the end of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's presidency, the completely dark view of the West gradually gave way to an atmosphere that allowed Khatami to come to power with the slogan of 'Dialogue Among Civilizations.' Since 1997, Iran's diplomatic apparatus has engaged in various forms of diplomacy, including 'unofficial,' 'formal and indirect,' and in the specific case of the negotiations leading to the JCPOA, 'formal and direct.' Khatami's presidency from 1997 to 2005 marked the first glimmers of hope for thawing relations with the United States. Kamal Kharrazi was the foreign minister at that time, and the simultaneous presence of Iranian and American officials at international conferences created a space for exchanges. One such opportunity occurred in 2001 at the Bonn Conference, where numerous reports and comments about informal and secret dialogues between the two countries were transmitted. This was not limited to diplomats, as the presence of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan led diplomats from both sides to speak of Qassem Soleimani's role in this process. Although these interactions were said to be mostly indirect, they created a new ground for cooperation between the two countries. However, shortly thereafter, in January 2002, George W. Bush labeled Iran as part of the 'Axis of Evil,' and both sides returned to prior settings of cooperation. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency from 2005 to 2013 was filled with tension in Iran-U.S. relations. During this time, Iran's nuclear file became increasingly complex, and the burden of international sanctions, especially from the United States, grew heavier. One of the few instances of 'diplomatic exchanges' during this period occurred at the Sharm el-Sheikh conference on Iraq in 2007. Manouchehr Mottaki and Condoleezza Rice were the foreign ministers of Iran and the U.S. at that time, and they were present at this conference, reportedly sitting near each other at a lunch. However, before an opportunity for discussion beyond 'hello and greetings' could form, as reported by a BBC correspondent from Egypt, after a female violinist in a red dress appeared in the hall, Mottaki quickly left the venue, either to avoid having a photo taken of him in that setting or to avoid a longer conversation with the U.S. Secretary of State. Shortly thereafter, during the same conference in Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, the then U.S. ambassador to Iraq, spoke of discussions with Abbas Araghchi, a deputy foreign minister, regarding Iran's role in Iraq and its support for proxy groups, which Araghchi denied. One of the diplomatic efforts during this time that also proved fruitless was the presence of Saeed Jalili, then Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, in a meeting with European and U.S. representatives in 2009; a 40-minute meeting that William Burns, the U.S. representative, attended, and in his book, he referred to Jalili's 'unnecessary philosophizing about Iranian culture and history.' However, towards the end of Ahmadinejad's presidency, the first serious diplomatic interactions between Iran and the U.S. took place behind the scenes in Oman, and for a long time afterward, there was no news. During this time, although Ali Akbar Salehi, the then foreign minister, was not directly involved in the negotiations, he sent deputies to Oman to meet with U.S. representatives, including William Burns. Hassan Rouhani's presidency from 2013 to 2021 marked the peak of direct diplomatic interactions between Iran and the United States. Not only did Barack Obama, the then U.S. president, write a letter to Hassan Rouhani, but the first official meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran and the U.S. also took place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in Rouhani's first year in office, initiating hours and days of face-to-face negotiations between senior diplomats from both countries. Mohammad Javad Zarif and John Kerry, the foreign ministers of Iran and the U.S., although at times delegated work on the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA to their deputies, also engaged in hours of negotiations at critical moments, normalizing meetings that had previously been deemed impossible, even walking side by side on the streets of Geneva for a few minutes. Although Zarif and Kerry may have thought they had crossed an irreversible stage, the implementation of the JCPOA proved to be much more challenging than they had anticipated, and within two years of its relative implementation, Donald Trump ordered the U.S. withdrawal. However, even during the first term of Trump's presidency, especially before his exit from the JCPOA, formal interactions continued, and at the first United Nations General Assembly since he took office, Rex Tillerson, the then U.S. Secretary of State, sat down at the negotiation table with Zarif. Two years later, with Joe Biden taking office as president in the U.S., formal and direct efforts between Iran and the U.S. resumed, including discussions in Vienna, Austria, which did not yield results. Ibrahim Raisi's presidency from 2021 to 2023, however, was tied to 'indirect' diplomatic interactions. Iranian diplomats, led by Ali Bagheri, insisted on the indirect nature of diplomatic interactions; a method that many observers emphasized would be time-consuming and could lead to multiple misunderstandings, and the months of 'indirect' negotiations yielding no results confirmed such analyses. Over these years, Tehran and Washington moved further away from the negotiation table, and the prospects for finding a diplomatic solution to the existing situation grew dimmer each day. The beginning of Masoud Pezeshkian's presidency in 2023, following the sudden death of Ibrahim Raisi and his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash, brought the issue of relations with the U.S. back into focus during the electoral atmosphere in Iran; particularly since a seasoned diplomat like Mohammad Javad Zarif had entered the electoral field, making negotiations one of the main topics of early election campaigns. Another reason for this was the presence of an electoral rival named Saeed Jalili, who is a prominent figure in the hostile view towards the West. However, for diplomacy to move forward, Pezeshkian's rise in Iran was not enough, as Washington was also entering an electoral phase. In the 2024 U.S. elections, Donald Trump, who had exited the JCPOA during his first term and launched a maximum pressure campaign, was now returning to the White House with a different approach. Trump's approach to politics and diplomacy is very different from many world leaders and previous U.S. presidents. He is straightforward in his approaches and policies, utilizing unconventional methods including social media, expressing his proposals and threats through short posts. When Trump signed a presidential memorandum regarding the reimposition of the maximum pressure campaign, he told reporters that this option was not his preference, and perhaps the first sparks of diplomatic interactions with Tehran were ignited right there. Weeks of discussion on this matter in the White House, contradictory statements in Tehran, correspondence between the leaders of the two countries, and of course mediation by various countries, especially in the Middle East, have now placed Tehran and Washington on the brink of a diplomatic transformation; an event that, as in the past quarter-century, both sides are using sometimes contradictory terms to describe. Washington states that the meeting on Saturday, April 23, in Oman is a session and will be direct, but Tehran continues to avoid such a definition and insists that this will be an indirect process so that both sides can gauge each other's pulse from a distance. Although there are observers who believe this 'gauging' may lead to a face-to-face meeting at the very first step.