Iran and Azerbaijan Relations: Potential Friends and Enemies

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan can potentially be close allies or at least neighbors with very good relations. The two countries share maritime, land, and river borders. Iran is the largest Shia country in the world and is governed by Shia clerics who claim to promote religious messages and support like-minded trends. Therefore, Azerbaijan, as the second Shia country in the world, should be one of the best friends of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The population of Azerbaijanis in Iran is larger than the total population of Azerbaijan. However, since Azerbaijan's independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, the Islamic Republic and Azerbaijan have had one of the worst neighboring relations in the region, and current trends suggest that even worse relations may be on the way. Some important issues between the two countries include: 1- Iran and Azerbaijan are among the Caspian Sea coastal states, and the Caspian states have yet to reach an acceptable formula for the legal regime of the Caspian Sea. Iran and Azerbaijan have serious disagreements on how to determine this regime. These disagreements mainly relate to: determining the criteria for dividing the Caspian Sea, the issue of laying pipelines from the seabed of the Caspian Sea, the issue of oil and gas fields claimed by both sides, and how other countries and companies related to non-coastal Caspian states can access it. 2- Azerbaijani people on both sides of the Iran-Azerbaijan border share a common culture and language. They speak almost identically. In fact, parts of the current territory of Azerbaijan were separated from Iran due to several imposed treaties (1918) after 20 years of war between Iran and Russia. Consequently, there are strong forces and sentiments for unity between these parts. In the past, the Azerbaijani government has supported some separatist and secessionist groups in the Azerbaijani provinces. The Iranian government is concerned that Azerbaijan, with the help of Israel and perhaps the U.S., may assist in a rebellion by the Azerbaijani people in Iran. 3- Both countries' governments are predominantly Shia, but the Azerbaijani government has always been careful to prevent Shia elements from entering power centers. Azerbaijan systematically eliminates Iran's opportunities for influence among Azerbaijani Muslims. Activities of Shia groups are seriously controlled in Azerbaijan, particularly preventing their relations with Iran. Some of these individuals have been arrested in the past. 4- Given Azerbaijan's hostility towards Armenia, especially over the Nagorno-Karabakh territories, the Islamic Republic of Iran has established good relations with Armenia to pressure Azerbaijan (to avoid adopting policies unfavorable from the Islamic Republic's perspective). Azerbaijan believes that Iran's political and economic support for Armenia is a declaration of war against Baku. 5- Iran is concerned about the presence of the West and Israel in Azerbaijan. In the past, the possibility of using Azerbaijani territory for a potential military attack on Iran (after obtaining implicit consent from the Russians, who have always welcomed the disintegration of Iran as it brings them closer to their national interests) has been raised. 6- The foreign policies of Iran and Azerbaijan cause serious disagreements between the two countries. Azerbaijan has close relations with the West, considers itself a European country, and seeks membership in the European Union and NATO. While Iran's relations with Western countries are not favorable (nuclear issue, Iran's interference in the Middle East, and Iran's support for terrorism), from the Islamic Republic's perspective, Azerbaijan is seen as a center for Western activities against Iran. 7- Azerbaijan's relations with Israel are perhaps the most significant issue for the Islamic Republic with this country. Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Israel has developed increasing relations with Azerbaijan. The Israeli government has sold significant amounts of weapons and ammunition to Baku, and in return, Israeli forces have established a base near Iran. From Israel's perspective, its presence in Azerbaijan is akin to Iran's presence in Lebanon and support for Hezbollah. 8- The deterioration of relations between Iran and Western countries, especially the U.S., has created a favorable atmosphere for closer relations between Iran and Russia, while also raising concerns for countries like Azerbaijan that closer Iran-Russia relations (especially considering the situations in Georgia and Ukraine) and the mild reactions of Western countries to these developments may have consequences for the regional situation. It can be said that the issue of disagreement between Iran and Azerbaijan over the Caspian Sea is not limited to these two countries, and Iran has similar issues with the other Caspian coastal states. The suppression of Shia or active religious groups in Azerbaijan is not a significant issue for Iran. The Islamic Republic has shown that when it comes to issues concerning its survival, the behavior of other countries towards Muslims or Shia does not matter to it. A prominent example of this is Iran's relations with Armenia and how the Iranian government and even religious circles in Iran deal with the problems of Muslims in Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan. Muslims in these areas are under Russian rule and believe that Russia treats them poorly. Even Iran's reaction to the issue of the underwater pipeline in the Caspian Sea known as the 'Trans-Caspian Pipeline' stems from other considerations. It can be concluded that the Islamic Republic's negative stance towards Azerbaijan is due to Azerbaijan's close relations with the West and Israel, which the Iranian government always perceives as a threat.