Iran and 'Blue Gold'

In the last seventy years, it is hard to find an event in Iran that has not been influenced, directly or indirectly, by oil and its ups and downs. Iranians, across several successive generations, have spent their days under the temptation of oil, entrusting their politics and livelihoods to the magic of 'black gold', and became so enchanted by it that they forgot other challenges. Today, however, at the beginning of a new era, the people of this ancient country are astonished to find that their fate is more intertwined with 'blue gold' than with 'black gold'. The increasing water scarcity, which should have been recognized as a fundamental issue on the national concerns of Iranians at least half a century ago, is only now being acknowledged as the 'discovery' of a major national tragedy within Iranian civil society. For all these years, Iranians have shouted in hundreds of gatherings and demonstrations about everything except the most precious substance that is the source of their lives. Today, they watch in horror and regret as their rivers and lakes disappear and the volume of their groundwater dangerously declines. On a global level, international organizations have been emphasizing the danger of water scarcity for decades. In a report released two days ago on the occasion of March 22, 'World Water Day', the United Nations warned that if water consumption and management continue as they are, the world will face a 40% shortage of this vital substance in about fifteen years. However, if the issue of water scarcity is raised in a general and global context, its dimensions are not specified as they should be. The geographical distribution of water in the world is extremely unequal. Ten countries (Russia, Brazil, Canada...) hold about sixty percent of the Earth's freshwater resources, while nearly eighty countries, especially in the Middle East and Africa, with forty percent of the world's population, suffer from water scarcity. Iran, due to its geographical position, belongs to the group of water-scarce countries and suffers from low precipitation. But within Iran, there is also inequality in the amount of rainfall. In desert areas, rainfall is less than fifty millimeters per year, while in Gilan province it exceeds 1350 millimeters per year and reaches 1800 millimeters per year in the Alborz foothills. However, the average rainfall across the country is below 230 millimeters per year. Total rainfall in Iran is about 375 cubic kilometers per year, of which about two-thirds evaporates before reaching waterways. In other words, the total renewable water resources do not exceed 137 cubic kilometers per year. This amount of renewable water, combined with the severe population growth over the past half-century, significant urban development, and lack of investment in the water sector, has dangerously reduced the available resources to meet the needs of Iranians in the water sector. According to United Nations calculations, the standard for renewable per capita water availability is 1700 cubic meters per year. A country whose renewable per capita water availability falls below this level is considered to be experiencing 'water stress'. In Iran, per capita water availability has decreased from 5500 cubic meters per year in 1961 to 1950 cubic meters in 1994, and is currently below 1500 cubic meters per year. It is predicted that this availability will drop to 1300 cubic meters per year in the next five years. We reiterate that this figure is an average, and in some areas, including cities around the desert, per capita water availability has fallen to dangerous levels, already creating internal tensions with areas that have higher water availability. At the same time, pressure on the country's groundwater resources, which should supply 55% of urban water and 80% of rural water, has significantly increased. According to expert assessments, the number of wells in the country has risen from 47,000 in 1973 to 650,000. This uncontrolled extraction, along with the spread of various pollutants, has increased the salinity of groundwater, especially in areas like Yazd, where salinity has even doubled. Over the past fifteen years, more than eighty billion cubic meters of Iran's groundwater reserves have been destroyed. In this context, warnings about the intensification of the water crisis in Iran and its consequences are increasing. The loudest among them comes from Isa Kalantari, former Minister of Agriculture and current Secretary of the 'Urmia Lake Revival Headquarters'. According to him, 600 lakes in Iran are on the verge of destruction, no inland wetland has water, and people may have to evacuate the Iranian plateau due to water shortages. The French newspaper 'Le Monde' reported on March 19 that, according to Mr. Kalantari, the most significant threat to Iran's security is not Israel, but water scarcity. The water crisis in Iran and the country's need for large investments in this area have created hope among some Western powers that with the signing of a final agreement on the nuclear issue and the beginning of the sanctions relief process, companies from these powers, which possess the most advanced technologies in water management, will be able to sign major contracts in this field in Tehran. The water crisis in Iran, in addition to its economic and environmental aspects, also has security dimensions and especially threatens the unity of the country. Hamid Chitchian, Minister of Energy, states that 'currently, the need for water in the country exceeds the available resources, and this limitation has created friction and conflicts of interest at the local and regional levels.' He adds that 'in past decades, water resources were sufficiently available to various sectors of agriculture, drinking, and industry. However, now due to limited water resources, tensions have arisen among stakeholders in a watershed, whether upstream or downstream, and everyone believes they have the right to extract and use water.' The most evident example of internal water tensions can be seen in Isfahan over the drying up of the Zayandeh Rud. Many Isfahanis believe that their Zayandeh Rud has been 'stolen' and its water diverted to other parts of the country. The image of the Si-o-se-pol bridge over the dry Zayandeh Rud is one of the most heartbreaking images that display the painful tragedy of the water crisis in Iran. About three months ago, the French newspaper 'Le Monde', in an article titled 'On the Bridges of Isfahan', wrote about the sorrow of Isfahanis who see their Zayandeh Rud dry and have no remedy for the wound this sight inflicts on their souls. To help French readers understand the depth of the tragedy, the writer asks them to imagine Paris without the Seine River.