Iran and New Sanctions

The U.S. sanctions bill against Russia, Iran, and North Korea was passed by the House of Representatives on Tuesday, July 25, with a decisive majority (419 votes in favor and 3 against). This bill had previously been prepared by the Senate only regarding Russia and Iran, and now, after nearly a month of review in the House, sanctions against North Korea have also been added. The votes in favor of the previous bill, which started in the Senate, also had a decisive majority of 98 in favor and 2 against. It seems that despite the Democratic and Republican parties having significant disagreements on many policy issues, particularly domestic policies, they have reached a consensus regarding sanctions against Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The new bill targets Iran for its "destabilizing actions" and sanctions the entire Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) along with individuals and units involved in missile activities, human rights violations, and Iran's regional actions. Unlike previous sanctions that only targeted the Quds Force, this time the entire IRGC is under scrutiny. There are still steps remaining for this bill to become law, with the President's signature being the final stage, while the Trump administration has shown little agreement with the sanctions against Russia, which is part of this bill, believing it limits the executive power of the President. Nevertheless, President Trump has not yet commented on the possibility of vetoing this bill. The European Union is very concerned about the potential sanctions on European economic and industrial units interacting with Iran and Russia. Currently, the Germans have a contract with the Russians to create a new gas pipeline in the Baltic region. Most European countries have also signed economic agreements with Iran, some of which are in the implementation phase. The Germans believe that what has been approved in the U.S. Congress has unforeseen consequences that could threaten the economic interests and energy security of the European Union and negatively impact relations between Europe and the U.S. France views the congressional sanctions from a legal perspective. According to Reuters, on Wednesday, the French Foreign Minister stated that U.S. sanctions against Russia, Iran, and North Korea have extraterritorial nature and are thus illegal. The French Foreign Ministry's statement indicated that if these sanctions are enforced, they could have potential impacts on European institutions and citizens who have no relations with the United States; from this perspective, the congressional sanctions bill is considered extraterritorial and contrary to international law. The French Foreign Minister believes that in response to these sanctions, French and European laws should be adjusted, and this should be done at the EU level. One week before the approval of this bill, coinciding with the 90-day deadline for submitting a report on Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement, President Trump confirmed this compliance but stated that while Iran has adhered to the provisions of the agreement, it has acted contrary to its "spirit." He also promised to clarify the U.S. policy regarding the Iranian nuclear agreement within the next 90 days. Iran is accused of repeatedly conducting missile tests in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and has acted contrary to this resolution by mass-producing and correcting the range of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Additionally, Iran's regional actions have been assessed as contributing to instability and insecurity in the Middle East, directly threatening America's strategic ally, Israel, which has angered congressional representatives. On July 14, 2015, Iran signed the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) with China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, the EU's High Representative, and the United States. On July 20 of the same year, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2231, confirming the nuclear agreement and calling for a new relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran and achieving satisfactory results regarding this agreement. In Annex "B," paragraph 3 of this resolution, there is a statement addressing Iran's ballistic missiles. According to this clause, "Iran is called upon" not to engage in the production and launch of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The tone of this clause is written in such a way that it does not have a mandatory prohibition but rather requests that Iran refrain from entering the subject of producing and launching ballistic missiles. In practice, Iran has ignored this clause of the resolution and through provocative actions, including writing slogans for the destruction of Israel in Persian and Hebrew on the bodies of missiles, has led the U.S. Congress to take a more decisive action in sanctioning Iran. Both Iran and Russia have reacted strongly to the implementation of the congressional bill. Russia is considering retaliatory measures but has stated it will wait until the bill is finalized. In Iran, various individuals, newspapers, factions, and officials have expressed differing views. Abbas Araghchi, Deputy Foreign Minister and member of the nuclear negotiation team, stated at a conference in Tehran that the new bill contradicts several clauses of the nuclear agreement. In his view, no new sanctions have been added, but in practice, it could hinder the implementation of the nuclear agreement and reduce the Islamic Republic's benefits from the JCPOA. He did not provide specific information on which aspects of the bill contradict the text of the JCPOA. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is set to begin a new term in less than ten days, expressed doubt about the effectiveness of the threat tactic but promised that his government would respond and continue to strengthen the country's defense capabilities regardless of others' wishes. Meanwhile, just days earlier, Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, warned that "if America sanctions the IRGC, it must withdraw its bases up to a thousand kilometers around Iran." During the days and weeks that Congress was reviewing the Iran sanctions bill, Iranian officials, including the Foreign Minister, repeatedly stated that the extension of sanctions contradicts the spirit and text of the JCPOA. However, when on Friday, July 30, Iranian representatives, including Abbas Araghchi, attended the Joint Commission of the JCPOA, which meets every three months in Vienna, they refrained from filing a formal complaint regarding the U.S. violation of the JCPOA. It seems that despite the rhetoric, Iran's calculation is that filing any complaint would turn the nuclear agreement from a principle agreement that is being implemented and on which all members agree on Iran's compliance into an agreement where Iran itself would be the complainant of its violation. This situation opens the door for counterclaims by other members, especially the U.S.; and the unpredictable results of such an action could lead to a deadlock in the nuclear agreement. Abbas Araghchi stated in Vienna that Iran is "not satisfied with America's violations and reserves the right to respond to these breaches." If the sanctions bill becomes law, the government of Hassan Rouhani will be particularly targeted by fundamentalists and domestic opponents, while he is set to begin his second term after the Supreme Leader's approval in less than ten days. The implementation of the sanctions bill could make rapprochement between Iran and the United States impossible for a long time and impose greater financial and economic damages, affecting the political and social conditions within Iran. Although Iranian leaders believe sanctions have no effect on Iran, this view is not widely accepted, and certainly, pressures will increase on the poor and low-income classes, while those profiting from sanctions will find a suitable market for further financial corruption. Currently, North Korea is expected to conduct a new test. Military displays and new missile tests by Iran are not ruled out, and it seems that they may model their reactions after North Korea's. With the implementation of the new sanctions, the possibility of positive changes within the system is severely undermined, and what the President calls the "government with a gun" gains power. Thus, many of Iran's economic and social activities will come under the control of the government with a gun, which will likely manifest in a new tactical form in the political-administrative arena. The first signs of this change are already visible in the composition of Rouhani's upcoming cabinet and have already filled the headlines of hardline newspapers.