Iran and Saudi Arabia: From Cartoon to Reality

Recently, a Saudi "animation" circulated on social media showing how the Saudi army, under the command of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, attacked Iran and was welcomed by the people after occupying Iranian territory. This 3D, six-minute animation titled "Saudi Deterrent Force" is said to have been created by a Twitter user. In any case, this animation was published on YouTube as "Qowat al-Radd al-Saudi" and the Saudi publication "Al-Riyadh" described it as a "realistic depiction" of the war between Riyadh and Tehran. This pro-Saudi government publication believes that "the scenes depict this reality and showcase the prestige of the Saudi armed forces with their deterrent capability against foreign ambitions, especially Iranian threats." Additionally, the publication claims that the five-minute animation "presents the operational realities of the Saudi army regarding how it manages its system." A similar video was also released in Iran; the Iranian animation titled "Destruction of Key Targets in Saudi Arabia" was published on YouTube on January 5 (15th of Dey) last year and, according to the description below it, was produced by the Iranian company "Fatemeh Zahra." The Saudi release was met with a significant amount of reactions from viewers, not necessarily Iranian. Many social media users mocked Saudi Arabia and considered the content of the animation to stem from delusion. In many cases, the reactions reflected mutual intolerance from racial, linguistic, and ethnic angles, and in some instances, they went beyond the usual bounds of respect and civility, descending into insults and abuse. Interestingly, the reactions to this animation outside of Iran varied along political fault lines and the differing worldviews of groups, with each seeing what they preferred in the Saudi animation. "In an animated film, the Saudi army defeats the Revolutionary Guard" is a title used by the Kurdistan 24 channel (Erbil - Kurdistan Region), while the British Iranian site used the title "Saudi Arabia made a war animation against Iran, in which Saudi Arabia wins," which reflects the disbelief of Iranians abroad. The Qatari site, reflecting the views of the Sputnik Persian site, used the title "The Saudis published their wishes in the form of animation," and Sputnik itself used the title "Wishing is not a flaw for the youth," while the site "Alif" called it "ridiculous." Overall, the reactions of Iranians stem from a shared and similar sentiment: disbelief in Saudi Arabia's ability to wage war against Iran, let alone achieve victory as depicted in the animation. While the opposition in Iran and abroad is in irreconcilable conflict with the ruling political system, it does not seem that they desire to use military power to change the situation in a way that could harm "Iran" as an identity, cultural, and historical factor. This is a point that Iran's regional rivals have overlooked or perhaps think they can resolve the issue militarily with the coalition of great powers while also having support from within Iran. However, when looking at the rhetoric of Iranian military leaders, the same miscalculation can be seen in the opposite direction. That is, the commanders of the Revolutionary Guard also believe they can destroy any foreign enemy and then raise the flag of "true Islam" in Arab lands. While today, conflicts do not necessarily end with the destruction of one side and the military victory of the other. The new leadership of Saudi Arabia continues an aggressive and hostile approach toward Iran and seeks to disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of Saudi Arabia. Iran, in a reciprocal challenge, has warned Saudi Arabia to refrain from hostile behavior. The two countries are engaged in a proxy and exhausting war along four fundamental axes. This behavioral pattern has become a well-known feature in the Middle East in recent decades, where rebellions, civil wars, dysfunctional governments, and complex alliances are increasingly expanding. Currently, the two Islamic countries in the Middle East are in a multi-dimensional and permanent conflict with each other: Saudi Arabia with a Sunni majority and Iran with a Shia majority. Moreover, this duality is not limited to religion and is evident in all dimensions of social life, history, beliefs, governance style, and worldview of the two countries. For nearly 40 years, these two countries have been in an irreconcilable conflict in geopolitical, economic, and sectarian influence. Now, the new leadership in Saudi Arabia is rapidly moving toward an aggressive approach. President Trump's similar approach against Iran has encouraged Saudi Arabia, and conditions could escalate dramatically. The author believes that to understand the main reasons for the publication of this "animation," one must look at the existing and unresolved issues between the two countries. A perspective from this angle leads us to the existence and continuation of the proxy conflict between the two countries in four key points: Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Yemen has been within Saudi Arabia's sphere of influence for years, and despite being divided into northern and southern parts until the collapse of the Soviet Union, it rejoined quietly during that collapse, becoming Saudi Arabia's sphere of influence. After the terrorist events of September 11, the U.S. and the U.K. became interested in Yemen in pursuit of terrorism, as Yemen, led by Ali Abdullah Saleh, was also a hideout for Al-Qaeda. Social division in Yemen along two main Sunni and Shia axes paved the way for Iran's influence in support of the Zaydi Shia and competition with Saudi Arabia, which supports Sunnis. After the Arab Spring began in 2012, political power shifted from Ali Abdullah Saleh to Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, and in 2015, the Houthis, a Shia group opposing Mansur Hadi, entered the political competition and advanced towards Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, following a series of military operations. Iran declared its support for the Houthis against Mansur Hadi, who was backed by the Saudis. During the two-year war, over 10,000 civilians were killed, and a dire situation of hunger and epidemics, including cholera, was imposed on the country. In recent weeks, following the death of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was a Houthi ally but had decided to reconcile with the Saudis, the Houthis changed their military strategy and began launching ballistic missiles at important centers in Saudi Arabia, making the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran more sensitive and, in some ways, more dangerous. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. accuse Iran of supplying missiles to the Houthis, which Iran vehemently denies, stating that its relationship is limited to "advisory" support. Historical memory of Iran's advisory support equates it with support for Bashar al-Assad. Iran has been a very important ally for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a long time, a leader who rules over a Sunni majority from the "Alawite Shia" minority. In the civil war that erupted since the Arab Spring, the Saudis supported Sunni rebels while Iran backed the official government of Bashar al-Assad. Even if we do not consider factors such as the presence of Russians pursuing different goals and interests, and only consider Iran and its regional ally, Hezbollah, alongside the regime-supporting forces of Bashar al-Assad, a combination emerges that conflicts with the goals of the Saudi government, thus placing Iran against Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia wants Assad to be ousted, while Iran, by providing military and security support to Assad, prevents the realization of Saudi goals. The result has been half a million deaths and seven years of war and the displacement of millions of Syrian citizens. With the relative stabilization of Assad's power, Saudi Arabia now seeks to invest its power factors in other areas to somehow change the balance of power in its favor. The Shia government of Iraq is the next target of Saudi Arabia, where Iran has been able to establish undeniable influence for religious reasons despite a history of eight years of war. The Iraqi government has only recently managed to defeat the Sunni occupation forces, which had occupied strategic parts of the country for over three years under the name of the "Islamic Caliphate" and were supported by some Sunni governments in the region, with the help of international forces and Iran, regaining its national sovereignty over the occupied territories. Iraq is one of the few countries in the region that has good relations with both the United States and Iran. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia want to distance Iraq from Iran. Iran has used its influence within the Shia government in Iraq and has so far prevented the realization of Saudi and U.S. demands. However, it is unclear how long this will continue, given the performance-oriented nature of the Shia government in Iraq. In fact, within this relationship, a secondary power balance war is forming, which the survival of Iraq depends on. In Lebanon, a political crisis with the unexpected resignation of Saad Hariri and his suspiciously short stay in Saudi Arabia has shown that despite Iran's historical influence among Shia in Lebanon and its very complex relations with the armed group Hezbollah, there is another power struggle in that very sensitive region that cannot be easily overlooked. The fact that Hezbollah is fed by Iran and that Hariri is influenced by Saudi Arabia are just layers of a more complex puzzle in the war for power balance in this region. Lebanon, as an important piece in this relationship, easily brings Israel into the picture, just as even the slightest tactical error in Syria could provoke a military response from Israel. The chess game of power balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues with these complexities. In this game, the pieces that burn, contrary to the rules of chess, quickly revive and re-enter the living chessboard; this chess game has more than two sets of pieces and more than two kings and two queens.