Iran and the Presidential Elections; From Political Blockage to Artists' Indifference

The fourteenth presidential election in Iran is being held while the country of 85 million faces multiple crises. The candidates have made various promises, but the extent to which the next president will be successful in resolving these crises remains questionable. Here, we take a general look at the situation in Iran regarding foreign policy, domestic politics, economy, society, and culture: 1. Crisis in Diplomacy Iran, which had close relations with the West and good relations with regional countries during the Pahlavi regime, faced a crisis in its diplomacy following the revolution. In addition to the severance of relations between Tehran and Israel and the U.S., which has a history almost as long as the Islamic Republic itself, Iran's diplomatic relations with several countries, including Canada, have also been cut off, and it has experienced tense periods in relations with other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Britain. Tensions in Iran's foreign relations have continued up to the days before the current election, and even the recent Gaza war has led to military tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel. A few months before the elections, the Islamic Republic took an unprecedented step by attacking inside Israeli territory. Canada, which recently listed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group, has not allowed the Islamic Republic to hold presidential elections for Iranians residing in Canada. In addition to Canada, Saudi Arabia has also made a similar decision regarding Iranian pilgrims in Mecca and Medina, indicating the continuation of tensions between Riyadh and Tehran, despite the reopening of embassies in both countries. The Islamic Republic has raised international concerns with its nuclear, missile, and drone programs, and a resolution against the Islamic Republic was passed a few weeks before the elections at the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors. Additionally, by supporting armed groups in the region, it has created deep discontent among its neighbors. The Islamic Republic has occasionally turned to a policy of 'de-escalation' in its diplomacy, but Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, especially in the years following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, has emphasized the continuation of regional activities, a policy of distancing from the West, and efforts to get closer to Russia and China. Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS group are part of the Islamic Republic's efforts to get closer to China and Russia, but Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a presidential candidate, acknowledged in election debates that Tehran's membership in these organizations under the influence of China and Russia has not brought specific benefits to the Islamic Republic. 2. Political Blockage and the Shadow of Khamenei's 'Imminent' Death The Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis domestically, and some former officials, including Masoumeh Ebtekar, have recently spoken of a 'political blockage' in Iran. This political blockage is largely due to the power structure in Iran and the excessive powers of the leader. The death of Ebrahim Raisi not only led to the holding of early presidential elections in Iran but also raised the issue of Ali Khamenei's succession again, as many analysts consider his death to be 'imminent.' Raisi was mentioned as one of the potential candidates for future leadership. The main power in the Islamic Republic is in the hands of the leader, who can determine the direction and outcome of any election in Iran using the tools and institutions under his control. For over three decades, the current leader of the Islamic Republic has relied heavily on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, his ideological military arm, and has expanded the influence of this institution, which is classified by the U.S. as a terrorist group, in various areas. The leader of the Islamic Republic also suppresses parties, arrests political activists, and deprives citizens of their rights to freedom of assembly and expression through the judiciary and security forces. Families of the victims and civil political activists have increasingly called for a boycott of the elections. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, former officials of the Islamic Republic and two candidates who contested the results of the 2009 elections, remain under house arrest. Several political activists and analysts, including Mostafa Tajzadeh and Sadegh Zibakalam, are in prison, and the qualifications of many prominent political figures for candidacy in the elections have been rejected by the Guardian Council. In the public sphere, the level of public participation in elections, based on statistics from the last elections held (the parliamentary elections last Esfand), has reached its lowest level during the Islamic Republic. The leader of the Islamic Republic stated in his speech ahead of the elections that public participation would bring 'glory' to the Islamic Republic. However, following these remarks, Mohammad Fazeli, a supporter of one of the candidates, wrote in a message that 'governments gain legitimacy by solving issues, not by votes.' He noted the failures of previous governments, stating, 'If votes do not solve issues, they do not bring legitimacy either. It is the government's responsibility to lead votes to solve issues; otherwise, tens of millions of votes will go up in smoke.' Despite the calls from the leader of the Islamic Republic and other officials for widespread participation in the elections, the campaign to boycott the current elections is serious and prominent. 3. Iran's Economy Under Severe Sanctions Iran's economy is currently under the most severe U.S. sanctions and other sanctions due to the behaviors and policies of the Islamic Republic. U.S. sanctions began in the first year of the Islamic Republic following the attack on the U.S. embassy in Tehran, and despite some reductions or lifting of certain sanctions at times, Iran's economy has always been affected by sanctions over the past four decades. The actual extent of the damages caused by these sanctions to the Iranian economy is not precisely known, but recently, former President Hassan Rouhani stated that a parliamentary law known as the 'Strategic Action Plan for the Lifting of Sanctions' has caused '300 billion dollars' in financial losses to the Iranian economy over the past three years. The existence of rampant inflation and the failure to increase wages according to inflation, severe increases in housing and rental prices, rising dollar prices, severe fluctuations in the stock market, problems related to the automotive industry, and ineffectiveness in addressing water and energy issues are among the current economic problems in Iran. Additionally, sanctions have severely impacted Iran's non-oil exports, including exports of carpets, pistachios, and saffron, leading to stagnation in these markets. 4. Mandatory Hijab, the Most Important Social Issue The strict control of citizens' clothing has become a defining feature of this government in the social sphere since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. Since the Islamic Republic was established in Iran, the government has imposed strict Islamic laws in various areas, especially against women's freedom of dress. Despite public protests, the government is seeking to intensify these laws and restrictions related to mandatory hijab and intends to deprive girls and women opposing it of their other social rights or impose heavy fines on them. 5. The Escape of Mohammad Rasoulof, a Symbol of Cultural Status Iranian cinema, despite restrictions and the banning of some actors and directors, has managed to maintain some of its vibrancy and shine on the international stage. Despite repression and imprisonment, Iranian films are often celebrated at international festivals such as Cannes, Venice, or Berlin. However, restrictions in the cultural sphere, especially in cinema, have significantly increased in recent years, and many artists have faced government harassment and repression following the 'Women, Life, Freedom' protests. Less than two months ago, Mohammad Rasoulof, a dissident Iranian filmmaker, fled the country to escape his prison sentence. After leaving Iran, he spoke of 'cultural Iran' and emphasized the effort to reclaim 'geographical Iran' through cultural struggles.