Iran and Trump's Presidency

Last week's victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has raised the question in Iranian media and political circles about what the policy of the elected president of the United States towards the Islamic Republic of Iran will be. Will the relations between Washington and Tehran undergo fundamental changes in the next four years or not? Observers who answer this question affirmatively point to Trump's statements about violating the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) if he wins the election, and the likelihood of a more prominent role for American neoconservatives in his administration, who have emphasized regime change in Iran in the past, as well as his closer relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, analysts who disagree and believe that there will not be a fundamental shift in future U.S.-Iran relations refer to the priority of defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) in Trump's previous statements and his lack of insistence on the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as his positive engagement with Russia, which is aligned with the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding Syria. We raised the question of what the implications of Trump's election as president of the United States will be for future relations between Tehran and Washington, including Iran's nuclear agreement with the 5+1 countries known as the JCPOA, with four guests on this program: Mohsen Milani, head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of South Florida in Tampa; Hooshang Amirahmadi, founder and president of the Iranian American Council and director of Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University; Shahryar Ahi, one of the founders of the Alliance for Democracy in Stockholm; and Alireza Namvar Haghighi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at the University of Toronto. Let's start with the Iran and 5+1 nuclear agreement. Before winning the election, Donald Trump emphasized that he would violate the JCPOA if he won. After his victory, Mike Pence, Trump's vice president, stated that the JCPOA needs to be reviewed. Mr. Milani, should we expect the Trump administration to violate the JCPOA or not? Mohsen Milani: We have two Trumps, one who participated in the election campaign and made a series of statements, and the Trump who won the U.S. presidential election. The Trump who was in the election campaign made statements that I believe he will either change or, as he puts it, modify. One of these issues will be the JCPOA. He previously said he would violate it, but one of his spokespeople stated in an interview that he would not violate it but would start negotiations with Iran again and would have a series of new demands. He also pointed out that the money Iran has will not be returned easily. I think it is very difficult to judge what he will do, not only because we have two different Trumps but also because Mr. Trump himself has made many contradictory statements regarding foreign policy, which are somewhat vague, and we need to wait and see. In my opinion, this is the key to this fundamental issue. We need to wait and see who his foreign policy team will be. That is, who will be the new Secretary of State, who will be the Secretary of Defense, and most importantly, who will be the head of the U.S. National Security Council. After that, we can make a judgment. However, it is very important that if Mr. Trump wants to improve his relationship with Russia and wants to resolve the ISIS issue, I think it will be somewhat difficult for him without cooperation with the Islamic Republic. Mr. Amirahmadi, as Mr. Milani mentioned, for diplomatic reasons, the Trump administration may not directly violate the JCPOA after the victory. Is there a possibility, as some observers have said, that indirectly through Congress and the Senate, where Republicans have a majority, they could create obstacles and restrictions in the implementation of the JCPOA? Hooshang Amirahmadi: I largely agree with Mr. Milani's view. Mr. Trump did not say during the election that he would discard the JCPOA. He said it is not a good agreement and was not negotiated well, and his constant talk was about renegotiating with Iran, which I do not think is a bad thing. From this perspective, it is not bad because if I were Iran, I would say we also do not think it was a good deal for us, and this itself will lead Iran to start talking with the Trump administration, which I think is very important. Because the dialogue that was established between Iran and the Obama administration could be cut off. But now, under the pretext of renegotiating the JCPOA, this dialogue could be reestablished. In any case, I am not too pessimistic about this process. However, one thing to know about Trump is that most of his focus will be on domestic policy, and foreign policy will be controlled by others. That is, I do not think he will have much power in foreign policy or want to intervene. People like Newt Gingrich [former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives] and especially Bob Corker [Republican Senator from Tennessee and current Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee] and others like them are people who may become Secretary of State, and Senator Jeff Sessions [Republican Senator from Alabama] could become Secretary of Defense, or General Michael Flynn [Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency during George W. Bush's presidency] could be the National Security Council head. These are very hardline individuals. Iran will have more problems with them than with Trump himself. That is, these people will control Trump's foreign policy, and it depends on how they will behave. I am concerned about this group. Mr. Ahi, the Iranian newspapers on Saturday were full of notes about the fate of the JCPOA. The Ebtekar newspaper wrote that Donald Trump will not tear up the JCPOA because, according to the author of the note, the elected president's background is more in business than politics. What is your opinion on this? Shahryar Ahi: First, it should be clarified that the JCPOA is not a contract with mutual obligations. It is a multilateral program. Each of the parties in the 1+5, if we include the European Union, can stop what they have done without having obligations towards the other parties. In fact, Mr. Khamenei is right that we did not make any commitments. Anyone in this JCPOA program says I will do this series of actions and can stop. Of course, by disregarding previous UN resolutions against Iran and considering the JCPOA as a basis for a new resolution that replaces it, it gains the credibility of being attached to an international law. The fact that Mr. Trump says that because I am a good negotiator, I can make a better deal with Iran is not correct because the other parties must also enter negotiations, and it will not be acceptable for Russia and China, let alone Germany, to fully agree with Mr. Trump. But what Mr. Trump can do is unilateral actions. According to many legal experts, there have been violations in the implementation of the JCPOA by Iran, such as Iran's missile activities or the volume of heavy water that Iran has. In all these cases, the U.S. can impose stricter measures on trade and financial channels, which the U.S. can still do due to the position of the dollar in international transactions, which can anger Iran. However, if it does this, it will no longer have the paralyzing sanctions that previously existed based on the UN program with the agreement of China, Russia, and other countries, which even China blocked Iran's money from selling oil in China; these will no longer exist. The result will be that if Obama and Bush, with the help of Ahmadinejad, were able to isolate Iran and impose paralyzing sanctions, this time it will be the U.S. that will be isolated, not Iran. Mr. Haghighi, I want to ask the same question but also want to ask whether you think the factor of negotiation will be more decisive in future relations between Washington and Tehran (as the Ebtekar newspaper pointed out) or the factor of ideology? Because some observers also believe that the neoconservative inclination that played an important role during George W. Bush's eight years in office may again become prominent in Donald Trump's administration. Alireza Namvar Haghighi: The problem Mr. Trump has is partly due to his character and traits, which I think Ms. Barbara Corcoran from CNN expressed very well five or six months ago, saying that you can never trust any promise that Mr. Trump has made. He can change it. Because the logic of real estate transactions, which is the logic of exaggerating the sale of goods, is that you succeed at any cost. This type of policy, if it is to be implemented in relation to international relations, will face serious problems. The problem Mr. Trump has is that he has made promises to improve the domestic economy that contradict interventionist policies. The policy that George Bush had regarding whether someone wants to make a military attack and confront various countries. Such a policy, from an economic perspective, will prevent Mr. Trump's promises in the domestic sphere from being realized. However, the problem Mr. Trump has, as you and Dr. Milani and Dr. Amirahmadi said, is that the groups that drive foreign policy may do things that contradict Mr. Trump's views and practically face problems. In such a situation, I believe that overall, Iran's winning cards compared to the period when Bush came to power are much greater. The first point is that from an international perspective, Iran is now in a better position. This means that Iran is now at the forefront of the fight against the most important issue that the West is facing, which is terrorism, and Europeans are relying on this to combat ISIS and Al-Qaeda, who consider Shiites their main enemy. The second point is that Iran has greater defensive capabilities. Iran's air defense has now been strengthened compared to the past. The third point is that some sanctions have now been lifted. The fourth point is that the regional order has faced serious problems, and the U.S. must establish a new order. This new order sees Iran as a stable actor compared to actors like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, all of which are experiencing much more fragile crises than Iran. Overall, it seems that slogans may be given and words may be spoken. But experience shows that all these hardline currents give slogans and practically hit a wall and a dead end, then they are forced to come and deal. Mr. Milani, Donald Trump has emphasized defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) and has not insisted on the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad and has had a positive approach towards Russia. To what extent is it likely that these three common positions of his with the Islamic Republic of Iran will lead to the U.S. and Iran at least being on the same page regarding the Syrian crisis? Mohsen Milani: Let me point out one thing about what was said. Regarding Mr. Trump, one important issue that should be noted is that until today he has not been briefed more than once by U.S. intelligence agencies regarding various issues. Mr. Trump will soon receive complete information from all U.S. intelligence agencies, and this is information that only he and perhaps one or two others in the U.S. do not have. Therefore, many of his positions, when he receives the secret information of the U.S., may be adjusted, especially regarding the JCPOA. However, regarding Syria, he thinks he can have a good relationship with Mr. Putin, and Putin was one of the first people to congratulate him when he was elected. Trump believes that with Russia's help, he can solve the ISIS issue. Because one of the most important promises he made was that I can quickly eliminate ISIS from the region. However, if he wants to do this and if he wants to work with Russia to eliminate the ISIS organization in the region, he must work much closer with the Iraqi government, and in my opinion, it will be difficult without cooperation with the Islamic Republic. Because in any case, the Islamic Republic and Syria are working together in the region. This is also one of the issues that will make Mr. Trump's job difficult if he wants to destroy the JCPOA. Just yesterday, Mr. Assad stated in an interview with a British newspaper that he is willing to work with Mr. Trump to resolve the ISIS issue, and I think this could be a very good point for cooperation between Russia, the U.S., and perhaps Iran. Mr. Amirahmadi, I would like to expand on the previous question from Mr. Haghighi. Some of Donald Trump's supporters in the election campaign are prominent neoconservatives who are known for showing coldness towards the Iranian government. Alongside this, some of Trump's supporters during the campaign included figures like Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York, and John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations during George W. Bush's presidency, all of whom participated in annual gatherings of the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization outside of Iran. Can these be seen as signs of the likelihood of the Trump administration leaning towards regime change policies that were considered by George W. Bush's administration? Hooshang Amirahmadi: Yes, it can be seen that way. In the U.S., there are two schools of thought. This has been the case for years, perhaps for thirty years. One thought is that the behavior of the Islamic Republic must be changed.