Iran in the Economic Power Hierarchy; A Look at the Latest World Bank Statistics

The latest statistics from the World Bank regarding macroeconomic data of countries once again show that the process of transformation in the power relations within the international economy continues, and the boundary between emerging powers and large industrial economies of the West is rapidly shifting. According to this data, India's GDP ranked sixth in the world for the first time in 2017, pushing France to seventh place. Given India's growth rate, it is highly likely that in 2018, India will rank fifth in GDP, replacing the UK. Thus, the largest former British colony is taking the place of its colonial power in terms of economic weight. GDP, in very simple terms, is the value of all goods and services produced within a country in a year. If this variable is divided by the total population of a country, the average GDP per capita is obtained. The World Bank's statistics show that in 2017, the total global GDP was $80 trillion and 638 billion. Among the countries, the USA ranks first with $19 trillion and 390 billion, followed by China, Japan, Germany, the UK, India, and France in second to seventh places respectively. Considering the comparable populations of the two countries, the wealth produced by each Turk is currently twice that of each Iranian. The significance of this gap increases when we consider the vast difference in energy resources between the two countries. Iran is one of the most important fuel supply hubs in the world, while Turkey imports its oil and gas at high costs. Over the past forty years, the economic geography of the world has dramatically changed, and some countries that were categorized as 'third world' have pulled themselves up. In addition to China and India, new powers such as Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey are now among the top 20 countries in the world in terms of GDP. During these four decades, Iran has undergone a painful economic decline. Those who portray the costly military presence of the Islamic Republic in several regional countries as a sign of Iran's rising power deliberately or ignorantly overlook the collapse of the national economy, which is the foundation of the country's authority. The latest statistics from the World Bank estimate Iran's total GDP last year at $439 billion. If we take this figure as a benchmark, Iran's economic weight in the global economy has fallen from 17th to 27th place over the past four decades. In comparison, Turkey's economy has risen from 17th to 17th in the world GDP rankings during the same period. According to the same statistics, Turkey's GDP, which was significantly lower than Iran's in the early 1980s, is now about twice that of Iran. Given the comparable populations of the two countries, the wealth produced by each Turk is currently twice that of each Iranian. The significance of this gap increases when we consider the vast difference in energy resources between the two countries. Iran is one of the most important fuel supply hubs in the world, while Turkey imports its oil and gas at high costs. Another criterion that showcases the dimensions of Iran's economic decline is the comparison with Saudi Arabia. The World Bank estimates the GDP of this 32 million population country at $683 billion, which is $244 billion more than Iran's 81 million population. Let us not forget that Iran's total fossil energy resources, consisting of oil and gas, are at a higher level than those of Saudi Arabia. In the half-century preceding the Islamic Revolution, Iran experienced a dynamic period economically, peaking during the 'Golden 15 Years' from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s. During this period, efforts for development and progress continued unabated, thanks to men and women who believed in modernity and understood their contemporary world. The most tangible consequence of this economic decline is the fall in the living standards of Iranians. The World Bank's assessment of the average GDP per capita of Iranians in constant rials (accounting for inflation and considering real purchasing power) between 1976 and 2017 shows that over these four decades, each Iranian has become, on average, 32% poorer. The World Bank's assessment is more or less equivalent to the calculations of Iranian experts. Dr. Masoud Nili, the economic advisor to Hassan Rouhani (his resignation or continuation in this position is still unclear), states that the per capita income of Iranians is currently 70% of the per capita income in 1976. In other words, he also confirms that over the past four decades, Iranians have become 30% poorer. Various factors are cited to explain the reasons for Iran's significant economic decline over the past forty years, ranging from war and economic sanctions to corruption and the brain drain of capital. Among these, ignorance stands out as a source of many of the calamities. In contrast, the Islamic Revolution handed over the administration of the country to those who were hostile to modernity and did not understand their contemporary world. Iran's economic decline is one of the most important manifestations of this tragedy.