Middle East & AfricaPremium analysis
Iran–Israel War Escalates as U.S. Senate Blocks Bid to Halt American Airstrikes
By Sana Khan
By Sana Khan
March 5, 2026
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Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, February 28, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
The war between Iran and Israel intensified early Thursday as Iran launched a fresh wave of missiles toward Israeli cities, sending millions of residents rushing into bomb shelters and marking the sixth day of a rapidly widening regional conflict.
The escalation came just hours after lawmakers in the United States Senate blocked an effort to halt the American air campaign against Iran. The failed measure would have required congressional authorization for further military action, but Republican senators voted it down, effectively preserving President Donald Trump’s authority to continue directing U.S. operations.
The procedural vote failed 53 to 47, largely along party lines. Nearly all Republicans opposed advancing the resolution, while most Democrats supported it, reflecting deep political divisions in Washington over the expanding conflict.
Missile Barrage and Expanding Battlefield
Iran’s missile barrage triggered air raid sirens across Israel, forcing civilians into shelters as missile defence systems scrambled to intercept incoming projectiles. The strikes formed part of an increasingly complex confrontation involving not only Israel and Iran but also the United States and several regional actors.
In one of the most dramatic developments of the war so far, a U.S. submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka on Wednesday, killing at least 80 people. At the same time, air defences linked to North Atlantic Treaty Organization intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkey.
The incident marked the first time Turkey which borders Iran and maintains NATO’s second-largest military has been directly drawn into the crisis. U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said there was no immediate indication that the event would trigger NATO’s collective defence clause, which obligates members to respond if one is attacked.
Nevertheless, the widening geographic scope of the conflict has raised fears that the war could spiral into a much larger regional confrontation.
Global Energy Routes Under Pressure
The fighting has already begun to disrupt global energy markets. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes remains largely paralysed as tankers hesitate to enter the conflict zone.
At least 200 vessels are currently anchored offshore awaiting safer conditions, according to estimates. The disruption threatens vital Middle Eastern oil and gas exports and has pushed energy prices higher in global markets.
The United States has indicated it may eventually provide naval escorts for commercial shipping in the Gulf, though officials say military resources remain focused on combat operations. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers “as soon as it can,” once operational priorities allow.
President Trump has also pledged insurance support for shipping companies facing soaring costs from war-related risks.
Political Turmoil in Iran
The conflict has been further complicated by a major leadership crisis in Iran following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli strike earlier in the war. The unprecedented assassination of Iran’s top authority has triggered a succession process inside the country’s clerical leadership.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts is expected to select the next supreme leader, a decision that will shape Tehran’s political direction and war strategy. Among those emerging as potential successors is Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s influential son.
Funeral arrangements for Ali Khamenei have been thrown into uncertainty amid security concerns. Plans for public mourning ceremonies in Tehran were postponed indefinitely, reflecting the volatile environment created by the ongoing war.
Another possible contender for the leadership is Hassan Khomeini, a figure associated with the reformist camp that has been marginalised in Iranian politics in recent years.
Markets and Global Economic Concerns
Despite the intensifying conflict, financial markets showed signs of cautious optimism. Asian shares rebounded after several days of sharp losses, while U.S. stocks rose on hopes that diplomatic channels could eventually bring the fighting to an end.
Those hopes were partly fuelled by reports that Iranian intelligence may have quietly contacted U.S. officials through intermediaries about potential pathways toward de-escalation. Iranian authorities, however, dismissed the reports as psychological warfare.
Meanwhile, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that a prolonged conflict could test the resilience of the global economy. Higher energy prices, volatile markets and disrupted trade routes could affect growth and inflation worldwide.
A War Reshaping the Region
The conflict is rapidly transforming the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. What began as direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran has evolved into a broader confrontation involving global powers, energy markets and strategic maritime corridors.
The death of Iran’s supreme leader adds another unpredictable layer to the crisis. Leadership transitions in revolutionary states often produce internal power struggles, and the individual chosen to succeed Khamenei will likely determine whether Tehran escalates further or seeks a negotiated exit from the conflict.
For the United States, the Senate vote highlights how domestic politics intersect with global conflict. By rejecting limits on presidential war powers, lawmakers effectively allowed the administration to continue its military campaign without immediate legislative constraint.
Taken together, these developments suggest the war is entering a more volatile phase one where military escalation, leadership uncertainty in Iran and global economic disruption are becoming increasingly intertwined.
With information from Reuters.
TagsIranIsraelSecurity Sana KhanSana Khan is the News Editor at Modern Diplomacy. She is a political analyst and researcher focusing on global security, foreign policy, and power politics, driven by a passion for evidence-based analysis. Her work explores how strategic and technological shifts shape the international order.
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