Iran Says Response to Israel is 'Certain'; Axios: It Will Be from Iraqi Soil

Officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran, who have recently spoken of the 'preservation of the right to respond' to Israel, have intensified their verbal attacks, warning that this response will be 'certain' and 'devastating.' Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic has ordered preparations for another attack on Israel. At least three Iranian officials on Thursday, November 1, referred to the certainty of Iran's response to recent Israeli attacks. Hossein Salami, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), threatened Israel on Thursday that it would experience the consequences of its recent attacks on Iran 'in an unimaginable way.' Speaking at a ceremony in Shiraz, he stated, 'You saw how your sky was torn apart in the Promise of Truth 2; this time you have also made a mistake, and you will experience the response in an unimaginable way.' A few days earlier, the IRGC commander had also warned Israel of 'bitter consequences' in reference to militants in Gaza and Lebanon. On the same day, Ali Fadavi, the Deputy Commander of the IRGC, stated that the Islamic Republic's response to Israel is 'certain and inevitable.' Additionally, Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, the head of the Supreme Leader's office, threatened that Iran's response to Israel would be 'harsh, regretful, and devastating.' In recent days, Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister, emphasized the 'preservation of Iran's right to respond' and that this response would be 'proportional and appropriate.' Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing 'three Iranian officials,' that Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, has instructed the Supreme National Security Council of Iran to prepare for an attack on Israel. The newspaper quoted three officials 'familiar with war planning' stating that Khamenei communicated this decision to the Supreme National Security Council on Tuesday. According to the New York Times, the Supreme Leader made his decision after reviewing a detailed report from senior military commanders about the extent of damage to Iran's missile production capabilities and air defense systems around Tehran, as well as critical energy infrastructure and a major port in the south. The newspaper quoted three Iranian officials stating that the scale and casualties of the recent Israeli attack on Iran are 'so significant that they cannot be ignored' and that 'failure to respond would mean accepting defeat.' These three unnamed officials told the New York Times that the military commanders of the Islamic Republic are compiling a list of 'military targets' within Israel, 'but these attacks are likely to occur after the U.S. elections, as Iran is concerned that escalating tensions in the region would be 'beneficial to Donald Trump.' However, the newspaper noted that it is unclear how and when Iran's response will occur or whether these statements should be viewed as 'a means of gaining leverage in negotiations.' On the other hand, Axios reported, citing two informed sources, that Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from 'Iraqi soil in the coming days.' The report adds that the Iranian attack is likely to occur before the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. According to Axios, the Iranian attack is expected to involve 'a large number' of drones and missiles 'through its proxy groups in Iraq.' Barak Ravid, the author of the Axios report, cited the reason for the attack from Iraqi soil and by Iraqi militants, rather than a direct attack from within Iran, as the Islamic Republic's attempt to prevent a subsequent Israeli response to strategic targets in Iran. Iranian officials have yet to respond to the New York Times and Axios reports. Meanwhile, Reuters pointed to the Iraqi government's efforts to avoid entering into regional conflict and the opposition of Iranian-backed militants to Baghdad's decision. Reuters, citing six different sources, including two advisors to the Iraqi government and four Iranian-backed militants, reported that the government of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has so far been unsuccessful in convincing Tehran and these militants. In recent weeks, two senior Iraqi security officials traveled to Tehran to ask the Islamic Republic to rein in its allied groups in Iraq, but according to Reuters, these officials faced a lukewarm reception in Tehran. The news agency quoted a security source stating that Iranian officials merely said that the militia groups make their own decisions and that support for Lebanon and Gaza is their own demand. Iranian and Iraqi officials have not reacted to Reuters' report. Reuters also reported, citing 'four sources,' that the two groups 'Kata'ib Hezbollah Iraq' and 'Harakat al-Nujaba,' which lead the attacks on Israel, have warned the Iraqi Prime Minister not to pressure them to stop these attacks. The Islamic Republic of Iran carried out extensive missile attacks on Israel for the second time in six months on the evening of October 1, and in response, Israel announced in the early morning of November 1 that it had targeted military positions in various regions of Iran.