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Iran Update Special Report, May 3, 2026
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period.
NOTE: ISW-CTP will continue posting morning social media threads on an as-needed basis starting April 28, 2026, for the duration of the ceasefire. We will continue providing long-form analysis on the state of the Iran War in our daily Iran Update Special Reports.
Key Takeaways
Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war, guarantee no future combined force strikes on Iran, and address the Strait of Hormuz in the first phase, while delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program to a second phase.
Iran appears to be offering the possibility of discussing nuclear issues at a later date in order to push the United States to end the war and lift its naval blockade. Iran reportedly offered to discuss various options for pausing uranium enrichment, transferring or diluting its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, and other nuclear-related issues in the second phase of its proposal. Iran does not appear to have made any firm commitments to make concessions regarding its nuclear program in its latest proposal, however.
The United States has reportedly responded to Iran’s counterproposal, according to Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. US President Donald Trump previously stated on May 1 that he was “not satisfied” with the Iranian proposal.
Toplines
Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war, guarantee no future combined force strikes on Iran, and address the Strait of Hormuz in the first phase, while delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program to a second phase. US President Donald Trump expressed doubt on May 2 that the proposal “would be acceptable.”[1] Al Jazeera, citing unspecified sources, reported on May 3 that Iran’s counterproposal to the United States comprises three phases.[2] The first phase includes a “complete end to the war” within 30 days, a mutual “guarantee of non-aggression” between the United States, Israel, Iran, and the Axis of Resistance, anend to the US blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for the “reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for Iran “in a new and innovative format,” and the complete withdrawal of US forces from Iran’s “maritime perimeter.”[3] It is unclear whether the compensation clause refers to Iran’s demand for war reparations or Iran’s proposal to establish a toll scheme in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran included a plan to charge vessels that transit through the strait a fee in its previous proposal on April 26.[4] Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated on April 30 that Iran will impose a “new management” in the strait that will reap “economic benefits” for Iran, likely referring to the toll scheme.[5] An Iranian media outlet affiliated with former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani similarly reported on May 2 that Iran’s counterproposal includes “a new mechanism” for the Strait of Hormuz.[6] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media separately reported on May 2 that the Iranian Parliament plans to approve a 12-point plan that would place restrictions on which ships are allowed to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.[7] Ships belonging to “hostile countries” would be required to pay war reparations to Iran in order to pass through the strait under this plan.[8]
The second phase of Iran’s proposal reportedly includes negotiations between the United States and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program.[9] Iran appears to be offering the possibility of discussing nuclear issues at a later date in order to push the United States to end the war and lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Iran does not appear to have made any firm commitments to make concessions regarding its nuclear program in its latest proposal, however. Axios reported on May 2 that Iran would agree to conduct a month of nuclear negotiations if the United States and Iran reached an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the war in the next month, citing two sources briefed on the proposal.[10] Al Jazeera reported that Iran offered to “discuss the idea” of pausing uranium enrichment for “up to 15 years,” which is longer than previous Iranian proposals to pause enrichment for up to five years.[11] The Iranian proposal also posits that Iran could enrich up to 3.6 percent after the pause ends.[12] The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action previously allowed Iran to enrich up to 3.67 percent.[13] President Trump has previously indicated that he would not accept a pause in enrichment and instead seeks for Iran to permanently suspend enrichment.[14] The proposal also states that Iran would be willing to “discuss the fate of” Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, with possible options including transferring the stockpile abroad or diluting it.[15] The United States has demanded that Iran hand over its HEU stockpile.[16] The proposal also insists that Iran will not dismantle any of its nuclear facilities.[17] The proposal emphasizes the need for sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for Iran’s nuclear “concessions.”[18] The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on May 1 that Iran’s proposal “calls for discussing the issues around Iran’s nuclear file in exchange for US sanctions relief.”[19] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei insisted on May 3 that Iran’s 14-point counterproposal is exclusively focused on ending the war and does not address nuclear issues.[20]
Baghaei announced on May 3 that the United States has responded to Iran’s counterproposal and that the Iranian regime is reviewing the United States’ response.[21] President Trump previously stated on May 1 that he was “not satisfied” with the Iranian counterproposal.[22]
Maritime Development
The IRGC Navy likely attacked a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on May 3, likely to sustain high shipping costs and oil prices to pressure the United States to make concessions.[23] United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that multiple small craft attacked a vessel—likely the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned Minoan Falcon—11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Hormozgan Province, Iran.[24] The vessel sailed northbound through the Strait of Hormuz before it abruptly turned south, likely due to the attack.[25] UKMTO confirmed that the vessel’s crew members are safe.[26] The IRGC Navy previously attacked and likely redirected two Greek-owned vessels toward Iran on April 22.[27] CTP-ISW assessed on May 2 that some elements of the regime may be willing to endure the United States’ economic and military pressure while simultaneously imposing economic and political costs on the United States to try to pressure the United States to soften its negotiating demands.[28]
US and Israeli Air Campaign
Nothing significant to report.
Iranian Response
Nothing significant to report.
Iranian Internal Dynamics
Nothing significant to report.
Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response
Hezbollah has continued to claim attacks, including first-person view (FPV) drone attacks, against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has claimed 11 attacks using FPV and non-FPV drones, rockets, and mortars targeting Israeli forces operating in southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on May 2.[29] This is the highest number of attacks that Hezbollah has claimed in a 24-hour period since the ceasefire went into effect on April 16. Hezbollah has continued to target Israel Defense Forces (IDF) forces operating in Biyyadah, southwestern Lebanon.[30] Hezbollah used FPV drones in two out of its five claimed attacks targeting IDF forces in Biyyadah.[31] Biyyadah is an operationally significant town located along a major coastal highway leading to the city of Tyre.[32] Hezbollah has frequently used FPV drones to target small groups and individual Israeli soldiers since April 22 (see graphic below). FPV drones are difficult to intercept and can strike targets with high precision.[33] The IDF also confirmed on May 3 that it identified and intercepted Hezbollah rockets and drones targeting IDF forces in southern Lebanon, which caused no casualties.[34] No Hezbollah projectiles crossed into northern Israel.
Two Hezbollah officials told Reuters on May 3 that the IDF has killed “several thousand” Hezbollah fighters since the IDF started its campaign in Lebanon on March 2.[35] The IDF previously stated on April 19 that it had killed over 1,800 Hezbollah fighters during its operations in Lebanon.[36] Hezbollah’s media office rejected the two Hezbollah officials’ casualty estimate, claiming that the group has not calculated casualty figures during the current conflict.[37]
Other Axis of Resistance Response
Nothing significant to report.
Endnotes
[1] https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116507414650995614
[2] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[3] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/world/middleeast/iran-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz-nuclear.html
[5] https://t.me/rahbar_enghelab_ir/313
[6] https://t.me/Nournews_ir/353200
[7] https://www.tasnimnews dot ir/fa/news/1405/02/13/3581564/
[8] https://www.tasnimnews dot ir/fa/news/1405/02/13/3581564/
[9] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[10] https://www.axios.com/2026/05/02/trump-iran-strikes
[11] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952 ; https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2026/4/14/why-are-the-us-iran-arguing-over-duration-of-uranium-enrichment-ban
[12] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[13] https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/joint-comprehensive-plan-action-jcpoa-glance
[14] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/16/trump-iran-nuclear/ ; https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/4520185/trump-insists-no-enrichment-uranium-after-iran-said-us-ceasefire-deal-accepted-it/
[15] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear.html
[17] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[18] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/liveblog/2026/5/2/حرب-إيران-مباشر-رسالة-من-ترمب-إلى?update=9192952
[19] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-softens-conditions-for-resuming-peace-talks-with-the-u-s-450622fa?mod=mhp
[20] http://www.tasnimnews dot ir/fa/news/1405/02/13/3581920/
[21] http://www.tasnimnews dot ir/fa/news/1405/02/13/3581920/
[22] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/uae-says-iran-cannot-be-trusted-over-hormuz-peace-efforts-an-impasse-2026-05-01/
[23] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/2050951599057514824?s=20
[24] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/2050951599057514824?s=20
[25] Starboard Maritime Intelligence, available by subscription.
[26] https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/2050951599057514824?s=20
[27] https://x.com/Tasnimnews_Fa/status/2046889851283218537?s=20
; Starboard Maritime Intelligence, available by subscription ; https://x.com/MarineTraffic/status/2046942263540949485
[28] https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-may-2-2026/
[29] https://t.me/mmirleb/15686 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15687 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15695 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15696 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15701 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15705 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15706 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15707 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15708 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15709
[30] https://t.me/mmirleb/15686 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15709 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/15708 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/15705 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15701
[31] https://t.me/mmirleb/15686 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15709 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/15708 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/15705 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/15701
[32] https://alquds dot com/en/posts/142445 ; https://www.washingtonjewishweek.com/idf-fighting-against-hezbollah-in-lebanon-ongoing/
[33] https://www.armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia-ukraine-war-2022/electronic-warfare-how-fiber-optic-fpv-drones-are-redefining-the-ukrainian-battlefield ; https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-april-10-2026/
[34] https://x.com/idfonline/status/2050905794300821511?s=20; https://x.com/idfonline/status/2050963521035178494
[35] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hezbollah-pays-steep-price-battle-reverse-its-fortunes-2026-05-03/
[36] https://www.i24news dot tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-idf-says-over-150-hezbollah-operatives-killed-in-final-strikes-before-ceasefire
[37] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hezbollah-pays-steep-price-battle-reverse-its-fortunes-2026-05-03/
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