Iranian Government's Confusion in Response to Environmental Protests

Reports from various governmental bodies regarding the recent protests in Khuzestan indicate a strange confusion: the government removes two non-key officials to quell tensions, the Friday prayer leader wants to ride the wave of protests (apparently against Rouhani's government) but is warned that he is playing with fire and denies calls for protests after Friday prayers; state radio and television completely ignore the protests, which were met with the slogan "Our shame, our shame, our radio and television" from the protesters; to prevent the protests from escalating, the police prohibit any unauthorized gatherings (in Iran, only Ansar Hezbollah and Basij can hold demonstrations with police support, and even they do not obtain permits). Ultimately, in Shadgan, alongside the protests, the police have secured the city after killing one person and injuring two others. The government's propaganda apparatus has linked this incident to drug-related issues, and the news is framed in such a way as to avoid any connection to environmental protests and the interruption of water and electricity to prevent further unrest. Following this incident, government officials have turned to a totalitarian control of cyberspace to hunt down individuals. According to the deputy governor of Shadgan, a committee focused on cyberspace has been formed with the governor's office, prosecutor's office, cyber police, and social security, telecommunications, and other relevant cultural departments as members (Mahr 1, Esfand 1395) to prevent any social mobilization and identify organizing elements. What is the cause of this confusion in the face of protests? The widespread and systemic environmental crisis. The management of water, soil, and natural resources in the country has been such that today millions of people have fled waterless villages and live on the outskirts of cities; the waters of wetlands, rivers, and large lakes in the country are drying up or have dried up; the level of groundwater in agricultural and residential areas has severely decreased, and the aquifers are in a condition where they cannot rejuvenate themselves. Western cities, especially in Ilam and Khuzestan provinces, are constantly under dust storms, resulting in water and electricity outages and the closure of schools and offices. These four phenomena disrupt the lives of every individual. The government's response? The government attributes all these problems to three factors (all except the policies and decisions of the rulers): 1. Neighboring countries: Officials attribute most of the dust and sandstorms that have reached lethal levels for the people of Khuzestan and Ilam to the arid and desert regions of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa, but they do not mention that since the onset of the war, they have stopped the mulching of dried marshes. They do not explain why this phenomenon has intensified and what role the decisions of government officials have played in this regard. The external origin of a significant portion of the dust storms would only be valid if the marshes and wetlands of Khuzestan had not dried up due to the decisions of the Islamic Republic officials. Some marshes were dried during the war (to facilitate military attacks on Iraq), and some after the war due to government decisions regarding regional water resources; 2. Illegal wells. Officials use this term to place all responsibility for the decline of groundwater levels on farmers, while every farmer needs a permit to dig a well. Furthermore, the population policies of the Islamic Republic in the 1980s have played an undeniable role in population growth and urban expansion, something that Khamenei is trying to repeat in the 1990s. A government that can revoke thousands of publication and newspaper licenses cannot prevent illegal wells? The government also has the necessary law enforcement capabilities to prevent illegal well digging, provided that the police are not busy collecting satellite dishes, raiding parties, arresting fashion models and beauticians, and engaging in thousands of unrelated tasks; 3. Climate change. Climate change is an issue that is currently of concern to environmental activists worldwide. Officials use this term to evade responsibility and to present themselves as environmental activists aligned with the concerns of activists, thereby sending them on a wild goose chase. Climate change exists everywhere in the world, but managers and social institutions have had different responses to it. However, there are issues that reveal the truth: 1. Transferring water from one region to another without considering the dire consequences for the climate and environment of the area from which the water is sent. The central government in Iran decides overnight to pump the Karun or Zayandeh Rud rivers to politically important areas (like Qom, which must provide facilities like Europe for tens of thousands of foreign students and about three times that number of Iranian students to expand the "Shia empire" in the world and promote Shia totalitarianism in Iran) without regard for the wishes and welfare of the people of a region. A city that can support less than 100,000 people now has over a million residents, solely because it is the capital of religious bureaucracy in Iran. 2. The policy of dam construction is not for flood control and management but to create projects for contractors of the IRGC and to spend oil money on notable projects, thereby earning the title of "Sardar of Construction" for the president. Of the dams built in the past 37 years, about eighty are completely empty, and those that have water are about 50% empty. The money spent has mostly gone to waste. These dams have played a significant role in the drying up of rivers, lakes, and wetlands. 3. Irresponsible export policies. Iran is fundamentally a dry and water-scarce land. In this dry land, they do not plant watermelons, which experts say require 250 liters of water to produce one kilogram, and then export them. In 1390, about one million tons of watermelon were exported, meaning billions of liters of water were exported from the country at a very low price, with the profits not going to the farmers of Servestan or Zabol but to the pockets of exporters, most of whom are children of influential families and managers. Tolerance or suppression? The confusion in dealing with environmental protests is partly due to the different and relative roles of officials in distorting the above realities and justifying interventions in the ecosystem, and partly due to political reasons. That part of the government that wants to tolerate environmental protests does not see these protests as political and believes that it is impossible to prevent people from protesting against water and air pollution because those who take to the streets on these issues are a mix of insiders and outsiders, and they cannot be suppressed with political justifications, as suppression would lead to greater mobilization against the government; 2) they see these protests as a tool to pressure a government they do not want to continue; and 3) they want to manage environmental protests themselves so that they are not co-opted by regime opponents. However, that part of the government that opposes environmental protests believes that 1) these protests, given the serious crises, could lead to protests of hundreds of thousands in major cities like Ahvaz, Isfahan, Arak, and Tehran, which would be difficult to control and engineer for any government, including the Islamic Republic, even with a relatively agile suppression organization "in the short term and quickly"; the government faced a series of urban revolts (focused on urban services) in the 1990s in Islamshahr, Mashhad, Arak, and several other cities, which ultimately ended with suppression; 2) environmental protests, like other protests, indicate the inefficacy of the government and must be prevented from being portrayed negatively on a large scale. For this reason, security institutions arrested hundreds of people in West Azerbaijan during the protests against the drying of Lake Urmia; and 3) the organizers of environmental protests are mostly the same social and political activists who have turned to this area due to the lack of freedom and suppression in other areas. They must be discouraged in this area as well. With this mindset, the police create a security atmosphere in cities where the potential for widespread protests exists. If you look at Ali Khamenei's statements in the 1990s regarding urban revolts, he conveys this same mindset with insults and derogatory remarks. Based on Khamenei's character and the appointed commanders of the IRGC, one can expect that if protests continue, many individuals in the streets will fall victim to the anger of officials. However, the problem with the second part is that environmental crises have become ongoing crises in Iran, and they cannot be dealt with like political or social crises that are few and limited in scope. The argument of the first part is mainly about this issue. The first and second parts are in conflict with each other, but as evidenced by the situation in Shadgan, the suppression machine, which has effectively silenced dissent, quickly comes into action. Ultimately, people who cannot survive in their hometowns become marginalized in the centers and larger cities that face fewer crises of dust storms and water and electricity outages. Thus, the cycle of poverty, misery, crime, and recruitment of suppressive forces from among the unemployed and poor continues.