Iran's Advisory Presence in Yemen: A Repeat of the Syrian Experience?

Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced last Thursday the presence of Iranian advisors in Yemen. Is the Islamic Republic of Iran willing to invest in Yemen as much as it has to preserve Bashar al-Assad's regime? What kind of assistance is Iran reportedly providing to the Ansar Allah movement in Yemen, and to what extent is Iran involved in this assistance? How are these aids sent to Yemen? Hussein Aryan, a military expert residing in England, answers these questions. Jafari stated that Iran's advisory presence in Yemen was announced last Thursday. Previously, Iran also claimed to have only an advisory presence in Syria, but over time, Iran's military presence in Syria became public. Do you think we will witness a similar situation in Yemen? Will the Islamic Republic of Iran move towards extensive military actions and troop deployments in Yemen? Overall, Iran has made limited investments in Yemen compared to Syria. In total, Iran's political support in Yemen is greater than its military assistance. For Iran, Syria is significantly more important. In Yemen, despite some media exaggeration, Iran is not the source of the civil war, but it is part of the Islamic Republic's strategy to continue proxy warfare and confront Saudi Arabia. In fact, the Islamic Republic of Iran is making the most of what is happening in Yemen at a low cost. Therefore, in your opinion, Iran is not moving towards troop deployments and broader military activities in Yemen, and its assistance remains limited to advisory support. Generally, what does this advisory assistance entail? Is it limited to advising and training military forces, or does it go beyond that? In the literature of the Islamic Republic of Iran, advisory assistance is synonymous with sending forces, weapons, and equipment. Iran acted similarly in Syria. In the past, Iran always emphasized that it provides political assistance to Yemen, but there is substantial evidence indicating that Iran provides military assistance to the Ansar Allah movement, although this assistance is not comparable to that in Syria. For instance, in the past two years, 44 members of the IRGC and Hezbollah have been killed or captured in Yemen. Of these, 23 were IRGC members and 21 were Hezbollah members. Has the Islamic Republic of Iran confirmed the deaths of this number of IRGC members? No, this number is based on reports from American media sourced from reports of Arab countries. Iran conceals this information, and unlike Syria, where it occasionally reported casualties of Iranian forces, it has never published casualty figures for Yemen. This data is from two months ago, and the numbers have significantly increased since then. How specifically does Iran assist the Ansar Allah movement? To what extent does this assistance go? I will mention some examples of Iran's assistance to the Houthis. This includes sending military advisors and Hezbollah members for weapon maintenance and training, assisting the Houthi missile units, providing guidance and advice on operations and combat tactics against Saudi forces, helping to optimize previous missiles, and training in sea mine laying, which they have done. Launching coastal missiles at sea, which has also been done against American ships. The use of drones, which in several instances fell into the hands of Emirati forces, and after necessary investigations, it was confirmed by Western experts that these drones were sent from Iran. The use of remote-controlled boats filled with explosives, which have been effective in several attacks. For example, in one case, severe damage was inflicted on an Emirati ship. Sending weapons by sea, for instance, in February and March 2016, American and French ships seized three vessels loaded with weapons and equipment in the Arabian Sea, and investigations showed that all these weapons belonged to Iran, and these vessels were manufactured by a company called 'Al-Mansour,' which is located in the port of Konarak in the Chabahar Gulf and belongs to the IRGC. However, I reiterate that overall, this assistance is not comparable to that in Syria. For Iran, Syria is a priority. Given that, unlike Syria, in Yemen, Iran is directly confronting Saudi Arabia, do you think this confrontation could lead to an all-out war? This possibility exists, but Iranian forces are not there. Iran is focusing on sending weapons and equipment to coastal provinces such as Al-Hudaydah and Taiz in the Red Sea or coastal provinces in the Gulf of Aden. For this reason, Saudi forces, which began their operations under the name 'Decisive Storm' and are now called 'Restoring Hope,' are trying to establish a buffer zone along the border to prevent the advance of Houthi forces and their infiltration into Saudi territory. About three weeks ago, a missile was fired from Yemen towards Riyadh Airport. After that, some accused Iran of being involved in the missile launch, an accusation that was denied by Jafari. What is your opinion on this? After the ballistic missile launch and prior to that, a missile was fired towards the Red Sea and the port of Jeddah by the Houthis, media reports created the illusion that these missiles were sent by Iran. In my opinion, this is unlikely. These Scud B, Scud C, and Scud D missiles existed in the Yemeni army's arsenal before the government fell and were subsequently captured by the Houthis. However, it is likely that the IRGC helped them improve guidance and increase the range of these missiles, for example, extending their range from 700 kilometers to 1000 kilometers to hit Riyadh. You mentioned that Iran sends weapons and equipment to Yemen. Through which transportation lines does it do this? It is expected that one of these routes is through Oman. Although Oman is not directly involved in this issue, it seems to be overlooking it. These weapons enter through eastern Yemen and then reach areas where the Ansar Allah movement is present. What actions has the opposing side taken to prevent the delivery of these supplies? Some of this equipment is sent via the Red Sea. Saudi and Emirati ships patrol these coasts, and in most cases, American ships assist them in blocking these infiltration routes. These ships control the port of Al-Hudaydah and Mocha and some islands in the Red Sea to block Iran's supply routes for sending weapons and equipment to the Ansar Allah movement, and they have been somewhat successful.