Iran's Economic Growth Declines This Spring; Central Bank: Oil and Gas Sector Dropped by 7% Compared to Last Year

The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic has reported a downward trend in Iran's economic growth in its latest economic indicators report, stating that this figure was 3.2% in the spring of 1403, indicating a 1.3% decrease compared to the previous winter. According to the Central Bank's report, the economic growth excluding oil was 2.5% during the examined period. The report also indicates a decline in the oil and gas sector's growth, which has dropped from 16.5% in the spring of last year to 9.5% this spring. The newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad, in relation to this, analyzed the Central Bank's report and its signals to the country's economy, stating that the growth of the oil and gas sector, which had been bolstered by Joe Biden's presidency in the U.S. and following the agreement between the Iranian government and Saudi Arabia, has now distanced itself from its peak and is on a downward trend. Some experts have declared this trend as the beginning of a decrease in the economic growth rate, believing that the downward trend will continue in the coming months. An economic journalist, in an interview with VOA, discussed the reasons for the decline in economic growth, stating: 'The decrease in economic growth in the oil sector is influenced by new Western policies and the tightening of sanctions, the nature of Iran's oil exchanges with China as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and the bleak outlook of Iran's foreign relations.' Reza Ghaibi stated that the continuation of increasing economic growth in any country requires stability and calm, adding: 'Internally, industries are facing many small and large problems, including a shortage of foreign currency resources, power outages for three days a week for three consecutive months, and a lack of suitable conditions for economic activity, which has led to a decrease in economic growth.' Ghaibi considered the continuation of the declining economic growth trend as the most likely scenario for Iran's economy, stating: 'In the coming months, production will again be affected by power outages and simultaneous gas cuts, and given the persistent fundamental problems and challenges in Iran's economy, it cannot be imagined that economic growth will be on an upward path.' This economic journalist emphasized that in foreign policy, there are no signs of any openings, and rising tensions in the region, increased friction between the Iranian government and Israel, and even the potential outcome of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States have blocked any possibility of openings in international relations for the Iranian government. The newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad also wrote that without structural reforms, the country's economic growth will drop to below 2% in the long term, and the country will continue to be embroiled in multiple crises and imbalances. The imbalances mentioned by this newspaper are one of the factors contributing to the decline in the growth rate, which experts believe will be very difficult to address or reduce in Iran's economy within the framework of the Islamic Republic. One reason cited for the difficulty of this situation is the lack of sufficient resources for any fundamental reforms; according to Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of the Islamic Republic, to resolve current issues, the country needs $200 billion in investment, of which only $100 billion can be sourced domestically, and $100 billion must come from foreign investments. Accordingly, experts believe that given the economic behavior of the Islamic Republic, achieving $100 billion in domestic investment will never be realized, and foreign investment will also be out of reach due to regional and global disputes involving the Islamic Republic and unresolved issues such as 'FATF' in Iran. An analytical report: The highest 'misery index' rank in Ardabil province and the highest unemployment rate in Sistan and Baluchestan. Warning from the President of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce; recession of production units due to 'power outages' and lack of 'currency and liquidity.' A security media report on the increase of poverty among workers; the spread of poverty in Iran.