Iran's Energy Minister: Electricity Shortage May Reach 25,000 Megawatts This Summer, Hopefully It Won't

Iran's Energy Minister, Abbas Ali-Abadi, stated that the country faced a 20,000 megawatt electricity deficit this summer, which is expected to peak at 25,000 megawatts next year. During a joint meeting with government ministers and parliament representatives on Sunday, January 6, he expressed hope that this situation would not occur. He claimed the government is preparing for a 'hard summer.' Iranian officials and media use the term 'disparity' to refer to the energy shortage problem in Iran. Over 90% of Iran's electricity is generated from thermal power plants that operate on gas, mazut, and diesel, and due to fuel shortages, electricity has been cut off from homes, offices, and industries even in the winter. Additionally, Iran's hydroelectric plants are operating at half capacity due to drought. The share of renewable and nuclear energy in Iran's electricity production is only 1% each. Iran has only achieved half of its electricity production growth targets in the past decade, with nearly all growth coming from thermal power plants. Ali-Abadi acknowledged the need for diversification in energy production but noted that 'achieving it requires time.' He also mentioned that electricity consumption in summer is 35,000 megawatts higher than in winter, equivalent to the electricity consumption of two countries, although he did not specify which countries. He did not explain why there are electricity cuts in winter when consumption is lower. Ali-Abadi expressed hope that by implementing smart control measures and load restrictions, electricity consumption could be reduced to 25,000 megawatts, which would allow the country to get through the summer, but this requires nationwide mobilization. His expectation for reduced consumption through 'control and restrictions' comes despite the fact that the annual per capita household electricity consumption in Iran is about 1,200 kilowatt-hours, which is 45% lower than that of European households and several times lower than that of households in Arab countries, the U.S., Japan, and others. Ali-Abadi also claimed that 300 megawatts have been added to the country's electricity production capacity in recent months, with an additional 500 megawatts expected by the end of the year. This modest increase in capacity comes as the government had aimed to launch 5,322 megawatts of new power plants this year. Last year, the goal was to launch over 6,000 megawatts, but only one-third of that was achieved. Ali-Abadi's statements indicate that this year's growth in electricity production will be even lower than last year's. This low growth occurs amid an annual electricity consumption growth rate of about 7%, or 5,000 megawatts. He also claimed that Iran is preparing to develop 30,000 megawatts of renewable power plants, a project that would require at least $20 to $25 billion in investment. Last year, Iran only launched 58 megawatts of renewable power plants, and recent statistics show that only 29 megawatts were launched in the spring of this year, figures that do not align with Ali-Abadi's ambitious claims. Concurrently, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, stated in a special meeting of the Energy Commission that 'today, 9% of energy production worldwide is from gas, but we use gas for 90% of our electricity production.' It is unclear on what basis Qalibaf made this statement, as international estimates indicate that last year, 23% of the world's electricity was generated from gas, 36% from coal, 3% from oil products, 10% from nuclear, 14% from hydropower, and 16% from solar and wind energy. Qalibaf's claim about the 90% gas share in Iran's electricity production is also incorrect, as this figure pertains to the share of all fossil fuels, including gas, mazut, and diesel. Iran consumes a significant amount of mazut and diesel in its power plants. Last year, Iran consumed 74 billion cubic meters of gas, 6 billion liters of mazut, and 10 billion liters of diesel in its power plants, and reports indicate that the consumption of mazut and diesel has intensified due to worsening gas shortages. The reason for the heavy reliance on fossil fuels in Iran's electricity production is the very low efficiency of the country's thermal power plants.