Iran's Foreign Policy in 1404; The Year of 'Super Crises'

The year 1403 was filled with events, many of which occurred for the first time, leading to developments that surprised or shocked observers. From exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel to the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. Even Iran's actions in the nuclear field recorded firsts, including a significant increase in enriched uranium reserves at the 60% level. Such developments have brought Iran and Iranians into the year 1404; a year that international relations and foreign policy observers view with a mix of hope and perhaps more 'fear'. The final days of 1403 were filled with countless speculations about the future of Tehran-Washington relations, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump wrote a letter to Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, for the first time, requesting to start negotiations with Tehran to possibly find a way to limit Iran's nuclear program. While the U.S. President expresses a willingness to engage in dialogue and peacefully resolve the disputes between the two countries instead of opting for military action, the leader of the Islamic Republic, in contrast, speaks of distrust towards the counterpart and somewhat rejects the negotiation proposal. This approach, along with several other characteristics, has led analysts interviewed by Radio Farda to assess 1404 as a complex year for Iran. Among them, Ali Vaez, the Iran program director at the International Crisis Group in Washington, states that the upcoming year, given the diplomatic deadlock with the U.S., could be a year of 'super crises' for Iran. This radio report shows that analysts' assessments of foreign policy indicate why the situation in Iran in 1404 is complicated and sensitive. A situation that, considering the economic context, legitimacy crisis, and level of discontent in Iranian society, could lead to diplomatic openings. However, the other side of the coin may result in military conflict, withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and further isolation of Iran.