Iran's Government Threatens to Resume 20% Enrichment If Europe Exits JCPOA

The advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic on international affairs described the reform of the JCPOA as an 'American delusion,' and the spokesperson for President Hassan Rouhani threatened that Iran would resume 20% enrichment and higher if Europe exits the agreement. According to IRIB news agency, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht stated on Tuesday, May 15, that if Europe withdraws from the JCPOA, Iran will revert to the situation of 2013 and resume enrichment. He emphasized that Iran would increase its enrichment from 4% to 20% and above if it exits the JCPOA. Before the JCPOA, Iran enriched uranium up to 3.5% and at one point up to 20%. The International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed that Iran initially enriched uranium at the Fordow facility to 20% and had even raised it to 27% at one point. The Associated Press had previously reported that Iran's 20% uranium stockpile, estimated at about 200 kilograms until the Geneva agreement in 2013, was only one step away from being converted into the materials necessary to build at least one atomic bomb. Under the Vienna nuclear agreement, Iran committed to halting its enrichment activities above 3.5%. Meanwhile, Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, stated on Monday, May 29, that Tehran has the capability to pursue uranium enrichment even higher than pre-nuclear agreement levels. He had previously claimed that if the Vienna nuclear agreement collapses, the Islamic Republic could resume 20% enrichment at the Fordow site within four days. However, Behrouz Bayat, a nuclear physics expert in Vienna, described Salehi's statements as 'exaggeration.' According to Bayat, while 20% enrichment is technically not impossible, it cannot be achieved in five days. He emphasized that the malfunctioning devices must be prepared for operation again and undergo a testing period, which would take at least two years. Meanwhile, political analyst Reza Taghizadeh wrote on Tuesday in Radio Farda that if Iran announces its exit from the nuclear agreement, it would need more than a year to achieve the capacity for a nuclear test explosion (nuclear breakout). On November 29, 2017, over 90 American nuclear science experts stated in a letter that the nuclear agreement effectively blocked the Islamic Republic's path to a nuclear bomb. However, officials in Donald Trump's administration, including National Security Advisor John Bolton, believe that the JCPOA has 'fundamental flaws' in its current form and 'does not prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.' U.S. officials say they hope that by increasing pressure on the Islamic Republic, America's allies will bring Iran back to the negotiating table. Donald Trump also threatened the Islamic Republic again the day after exiting the JCPOA, stating that 'Iran must either negotiate or something else will happen.' However, Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to the Supreme Leader on international affairs, said on Tuesday that renegotiating and reforming the JCPOA is an 'American delusion.' He emphasized that 'European countries have a short window of opportunity' to 'accept and implement the JCPOA.' President Hassan Rouhani also mentioned the limited time for negotiations with European countries during a phone conversation with British Prime Minister Theresa May. Meanwhile, Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, stated that 'Europeans have 60 days to provide the necessary guarantees regarding Iran's interests and compensate for the damages caused by the U.S. withdrawal.' The foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany, the three countries that signed the nuclear agreement, reiterated their call for Tehran to remain in the agreement. In this context, Mogherini stated that European powers are seeking a practical solution to preserve the JCPOA.