Iran's Leader's Military Advisor Expresses Concern Over Potential Results of Iraq's 2018 Elections

The senior military advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Republic expressed concern over the potential outcomes of Iraq's 2018 elections, stating that a decrease in the power of Shia in the government and parliament of the country would create "problems" for the Islamic Republic. According to ISNA news agency, Yahya Rahim Safavi said in a speech on Tuesday, December 19, that we should be "worried about the 2018 elections in Iraq." He pointed out that "soon oil production in Iraq will exceed seven million barrels," adding that if the number of Shia in the composition of the Iraqi parliament and government decreases, "problems will arise for us." The senior advisor to the Iranian leader and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards did not provide further details about his statements or the reasons for his concerns regarding the increase in Iraq's oil production. His remarks come at a time when some Shia groups and figures in Iraq have distanced themselves from the Islamic Republic and have engaged in negotiations with Saudi officials. Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Shia Sadr movement in Iraq, met with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia during an official visit to Saudi Arabia after 11 years, and described Saudi Arabia as the "powerful father" of Arab nations striving for "peace in the region." Al-Sadr, who was previously fully supported by Iran, has gradually distanced himself from the Islamic Republic, and last year his supporters protested against the presence of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards in Iraq. Al-Sadr also stated in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper on August 20 that he might form an alliance with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Ammar al-Hakim in the upcoming Iraqi elections. Ammar al-Hakim, the former secretary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, separated from this organization in September to form a new movement called "National Wisdom." Internal disputes within the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a Shia organization that has been aligned with Iran for over three decades, particularly over Iran's role in Iraq, have led to this recent split. The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, previously known as the Islamic Revolution Supreme Council of Iraq, was formed in Iran in 1982 and had very close relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran for many years. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister and the Islamic Republic's ambassador in Baghdad have stated that the Shia's relations with other countries, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, do not affect their relations with the Islamic Republic. Osama al-Nujaifi, the Vice President of Iraq, announced on November 7 that "a new coalition party consisting of Sunni, Shia, Kurdish, and Christian groups" has the best chance to confront the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The Associated Press interpreted this statement as a reference to the upcoming general elections in Iraq in 2018. Previously, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had also emphasized that the PMF should not play a role in the 2018 elections. The upcoming elections in Iraq are taking place while ISIS still holds power in parts of the country. Meanwhile, the Kurdish region's independence referendum has also caused conflicts between the region's officials and the central government of Iraq. According to the power-sharing system in Iraq, the president must be Kurdish, the prime minister must be Shia, and the speaker of parliament must be Sunni. However, the main power rests with the prime minister. In the Iraqi elections, the people elect the members of parliament, and the president is elected by the parliament. The president then holds the prime minister accountable for forming the cabinet.