Iran's Oil Exports Have Decreased to Less Than Half

Reuters reports that last week, Iran's daily oil exports fell to an average of 1.1 million barrels. According to the report, based on shipping statistics and industrial sources, Iran's average daily oil exports in September were 1.6 million barrels. A month before the U.S. exited the JCPOA in May, Iran was exporting 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily. It remains unclear how Iran's oil exports will fare in the upcoming weeks of October, but reports suggest that they may drop to around one million barrels per day in November when U.S. oil sanctions against Iran are implemented. An industrial source told Reuters that Iran's total oil exports have fallen below one million barrels in the past month (the last 10 days). Despite the decline in Iran's oil exports, global oil prices did not rise on Wednesday, October 10, and even decreased by 20 cents compared to the previous day, with Brent crude trading at $84.81 per barrel. However, current oil prices have significantly increased compared to last month, attributed to the continued decline in oil production from Venezuela and Iran. Simultaneously, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia announced it would raise its daily production to 10.7 million barrels. Before the U.S. exited the JCPOA, Saudi Arabia was producing about 10 million barrels daily. Recently, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia have privately agreed to collectively produce an additional 500,000 barrels of oil per day. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, called on OPEC and other oil-producing countries to increase their production, as the oil market is approaching a 'red line' in terms of energy security (demand exceeding supply). Reuters notes that the market is skeptical about Saudi Arabia's ability to compensate for the decline in Iranian oil production. Recently, Bijan Zangeneh, Iran's oil minister, stated that 'neither Saudi Arabia nor any other producer can replace Iranian oil.' On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Iran has begun storing its unsold oil not only in its own tankers but also in facilities in China. According to the report, a large Iranian tanker recently unloaded 2 million barrels of oil at the Dalian storage facilities in China. During the last round of sanctions, Iran was allowed to store tens of millions of barrels of oil in tankers. Iran also stored 10 million barrels of oil in China, all of which were sold after the sanctions were lifted.