Iran's Oil Exports Surge Ahead of Trump's Return to the White House

In the first half of December, Iran delivered 1.886 million barrels of oil per day to China, the highest level since 2018. Despite fluctuations in recent months, Iranian oil exports have revived ahead of Donald Trump's administration and the potential reimplementation of the 'maximum pressure' policy against the Islamic Republic. In November, Iran's daily oil exports to China fell by half a million barrels compared to the end of summer, dropping to about 1.31 million barrels, but data from commodity information company, Kpler, shows that oil deliveries to China have surged again in December. In the first half of this month, Iran delivered 1.886 million barrels of oil per day to China, the highest since 2018. The loading of Iranian oil to Chinese markets during this period was also 1.713 million barrels per day. Typically, it takes two to three weeks for Iranian oil shipments to reach Chinese markets. Thus, if the loaded shipments are purchased, Iran's oil delivery to China in December will exceed 1.8 million barrels per day. Overall, according to Kpler's statistics, Iran is projected to deliver an average of 1.512 million barrels of oil per day to China in 2024, which is 34% more than last year and double that of 2022. Iranian oil exports in 2017, before the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and the imposition of oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic, were about 2.5 million barrels, but in the last year of Donald Trump's presidency in 2020, they fell below 340,000 barrels. With the Biden administration coming to power, Iranian oil exports have significantly increased each year. The total Iranian oil exports to China, Syria, and unknown destinations; source: Kpler. Iranian oil exports to Chinese and Syrian markets have faced severe turbulence since the beginning of October this year due to the Islamic Republic's extensive missile attack on Israel and the potential for Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities; however, in December, Iranian oil exports to China were finally revived, but deliveries to Syria have stopped following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Kpler's statistics show that in the first 11 months of this year, Iran delivered an average of 56,000 barrels (a total of 18.5 million barrels) of oil to Syria, and no Iranian oil shipments have been delivered to this country this month. Tanker Trackers, a company active in tracking oil tankers, states that the last Iranian tanker with a shipment of 750,000 barrels returned to Iranian waters just before the fall of Bashar al-Assad, not reaching the Suez Canal. Disruptions in Iranian oil exports in the final months of this year have caused the volume of oil on Iranian waters in mid-December to reach 17 million barrels, four times that of September and before Iran's missile attack on Israel. However, data from energy consulting company, Vortexa, indicates that the total oil on Iranian waters in its own waters and East Asia, particularly Singapore, is 48 million barrels, which is 12 million barrels more than in October. In any case, despite the turbulence in Iranian oil exports over the past few months, Iran has revived exports to China in December, but it remains unclear whether it will be able to maintain its export levels to this country with the return of Donald Trump's administration. Small and independent Chinese refineries, known as 'teapot' refineries, are the only customers for Iranian oil, and they purchase Iranian oil through intermediaries and under the guise of oil from Iraq, Oman, the UAE, and especially Malaysia. A significant portion of Iran's oil revenues is lost in the process of circumventing sanctions and changing the oil's branding. The government of Masoud Pezeshkian has projected in the budget bill for the coming year that daily oil exports will reach 1.850 million barrels, one-third of which will be allocated to military forces (the IRGC) for 'strengthening defensive capabilities,' while the remainder will go to the government, the National Iranian Oil Company, and the National Development Fund.