Iran's Regional Project in Syria: From Expansion Over 13 Years to Collapse in 11 Days

Senior American, European, and Arab officials say that the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been trying to project its power in the Middle East, has suffered painful and serious blows to this long-standing effort, withdrawing a large portion of its forces from Syria and losing control and influence in the region. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, January 8, that Iran's retreat from Syria marks the end of Tehran's years-long struggle to define Syria as its regional strategic center for coordinating allied governments and militias to expand its sphere of influence, using Syria, which was a strategic asset for it, to wage a proxy war against the U.S. and Israel. According to the report, Tehran viewed Syria as a military base adjacent to Israel and aimed to create a ring of fire around Israel, attacking American forces from Syria. Andrew Tabler, a former director for Syria at the National Security Council, considers the collapse of Iran's ally in Syria a "catastrophic failure" for the Islamic Republic. Mike Mulroy, a former U.S. Defense official, believes that the flight of Iranian forces and their allies from Syria, leaving behind large amounts of equipment, alongside the collapse of Assad's government, has diminished Iran's influence in the region and its ability to support "terrorist" organizations that once held power. The leader of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" called for a "reassessment" of Iran's regional interventions. The Wall Street Journal article was published coinciding with the first month of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government and his flight to Russia following the arrival of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" forces in Damascus, commanded by Ahmad al-Shara, after an 11-day movement of these former jihadist forces from Idlib province. The Islamic Republic of Iran, which has declared itself an ally of Syria since its establishment during Hafez al-Assad's era, increased its substantial assistance for the survival of the Damascus government after the outbreak of popular protests in 2011 against the rule of his son, Bashar al-Assad, and sent groups of fighters to fight alongside Bashar al-Assad's army. Hundreds of senior Revolutionary Guards forces, including commanders who had gained experience in the Iran-Iraq war, went to Syria as "advisors." Syria was a vital route for Iran in connection with its major proxy group in the region, Hezbollah, which was considered Tehran's main ally in the "resistance axis." A senior American official told the Wall Street Journal that now the Quds Forces of the Revolutionary Guards have returned to Iran, and the affiliated militias created for operations in Syria have been dissolved. An image of the Islamic Republic flag that fell in front of the Iranian embassy in Damascus the day after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria. When the "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" forces began their movement from Idlib and reached Damascus within 11 days, Iran took the opportunity to withdraw its personnel from Syria. According to the newspaper, before the movement of the "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" forces from Idlib and the "dramatic" collapse of Bashar al-Assad's army, Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets and their allies in the region had destabilized Iran's position in Syria, especially as it had become "frustrated" with Assad. Tehran's frustration with Assad stemmed from his unwillingness to intervene in the war against Israel and to participate actively in the "resistance axis." The report indicates that the network Iran had built in Syria once encompassed the entire country; from the east, where the Revolutionary Guards were busy bringing in weapons and personnel into Syria, to the western border with Lebanon, where it was involved in equipping Hezbollah with arms shipments. Western and Arab officials told the Wall Street Journal that following the collapse of Assad's government, there were still thousands of Iran-backed forces in Syria; mainly in the east of the country, with some in Damascus, Aleppo, and other areas. Most of these fleeing forces headed to eastern Syria, including hundreds of Revolutionary Guards officers, Shiite militias from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon, and Syrian forces fled from the al-Qaim border to Iraq. Some Iranians stationed in Damascus managed to return to Iran on the last flights, and Hezbollah forces took the highway from Syria towards Beirut, seeking an escape route to Lebanon. Putin: Russia has withdrawn four thousand Iranian forces from Syria. This article emphasizes that Iranian forces and their proxies fled Syria, leaving behind large amounts of weapons and equipment while Tehran had spent billions in this country over the years. According to the Wall Street Journal, in the days following Assad's downfall, the highway from Damascus to Beirut was filled with destroyed and abandoned military vehicles, including tanks and mobile rocket launchers; a situation that testified to a hasty retreat. In the early days after Assad's fall, Israel exploded the equipment left behind by Iran, and some of the abandoned weapons were seized by anti-Assad rebels. The newspaper compared the situation of Iranian forces with Russia, which still has a presence in Syria, and Moscow officials are negotiating with the rulers of Damascus to continue their base activities in Syria. Concerns about Iran's struggle to revive old networks and exploit instability. Barbara Leaf, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said that Iranian forces have largely exited Syria and this is "extraordinary," and Syria is now a hostile land for Iran. However, Ms. Leaf stated that this situation does not mean that Iran will not attempt to re-enter. Other American officials believe that Iran will try to restore a land connection with Lebanon, albeit not in the short term. The U.S. is concerned that Iran will take steps in the long term to regain its influence in Syria, revive and reactivate old networks, and exploit potential instability in a country still divided among various militia groups, plans, and conflicting ideologies. Andrew Tabler believes that the catastrophic dimensions of the defeat for Iran depend on the unity of Syria, as Tehran could find an opening for influence through sectarian disputes. However, according to an American official, the new rulers of Syria, who fought against Assad for years, have recognized the Islamic Republic of Iran as a threat and are unlikely to allow the Revolutionary Guards to revive their military presence in Syria in the near future. Ahmad al-Shara told Asharq Al-Awsat that by eliminating Iranian militias and closing Syria to Iranian influence, we served regional interests, achieving something that diplomacy and external pressure could not accomplish. He emphasized that Iran's exit from Syria has "set back" Iran's project "40 years." Direct money transfers for Hezbollah. With Assad's fall, Iran's ability to revive Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, two organizations that have suffered severe blows from Israel in the past year, has been significantly damaged, and the loss of the land bridge that Iran used to equip Hezbollah in Lebanon has special significance. This report indicates that Iran is now struggling to deliver cash shipments directly to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but this has obstacles; where last week there was a controversy surrounding two Iranian passenger flights at Beirut airport, and passengers and luggage were thoroughly inspected. Iranian officials are also trying to cope with the consequences of losing their influence in Syria. Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, stated that those who claim the blood shed in Syria was in vain are making a grave mistake; this blood was for "defending the shrine." According to this report, Iran's problems are not limited to Syria; Tehran has become more vulnerable in the wake of Israeli airstrikes two months ago that destroyed Iranian air defense systems, and the country's missile production sites have also been damaged. In addition to this, Iran's economic crisis has worsened, unrest in the country is rising due to increasing inflation, and with Donald Trump's potential return to the White House, a wave of tough sanctions awaits Iran. Severe government repression and the risk of "going underground" for protests.