Iran's Silence on US Military Presence in Salalah and Duqm

The silence of Iranian media and the ruling body regarding the recent strategic agreement between the US and Oman for the use of port facilities in Duqm and Salalah indicates the Islamic Republic's dissatisfaction with this agreement, while also reflecting a decision to avoid escalating tensions in Tehran's relations with Muscat. In the past, the Islamic Republic has challenged any increase in US military presence in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. The relationship between the Islamic Republic and Oman is considered much closer than with any other Arab country in the region, and Muscat was the host of secret talks between Tehran representatives and the Obama administration, which ultimately led to the July 2015 nuclear agreement. Due to the sensitivity and importance of maintaining political relations and cooperation between Tehran and Oman, the Islamic Republic refrained from making an official comment on Netanyahu's unexpected visit to Oman on October 26 last year, as well as on the discussions between Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the sidelines of the Middle East conference in Warsaw, which had previously provoked a strong reaction from Javad Zarif. In Warsaw, Netanyahu stated after his talks with the Omani Foreign Minister: 'The good relations between Israel and Oman have left their mark on other Arab leaders and are transforming the world.' Motivations for US Presence in Duqm The US has been negotiating with Oman since the Obama administration to secure access to port facilities in Duqm, and these discussions finally led to the signing of a contract between the two parties in Muscat on Sunday, March 24. The US military presence in Duqm and Salalah, which are located on the Arabian Sea and not far from the Gulf of Oman, facilitates access to the Strait of Hormuz, which the Islamic Republic has repeatedly threatened to block, and also allows for monitoring the route of Iranian-made missiles to the Houthis in Yemen due to Salalah's proximity to Yemen. Currently, the US has a large naval force stationed in the Persian Gulf, and vessels primarily based in Bahrain are regularly replaced with newly arrived units. The US military presence in Duqm reduces the cost of maintaining a naval presence in the Persian Gulf and provides rapid overland access to the Strait of Hormuz. To avoid US oil sale sanctions against Iran, the Islamic Republic sells oil through smuggling (overland to Iraqi Kurdistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) and via the sea by swapping oil tankers at sea. Last week, even the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have seized an oil tanker carrying smuggled oil in southern waters. The US can increase its oversight of Iranian oil smuggling by establishing a presence in Duqm and Salalah. The situation in Duqm also allows the US to unload heavy military cargo and quickly transfer it to the Strait of Hormuz, hosting aircraft carriers and enabling dispatched ships to bypass the Persian Gulf without needing to enter its waters. The Duqm port, which was previously considered a small village, can develop into an advanced industrial-commercial hub in the Arabian Sea with foreign investment. Two years ago, China committed to investing over $10 billion in the region, considering local potentials and the readiness of the Omani government, but there has not been significant progress in implementing related projects. The US presence in Duqm may encourage China to pursue its civilian presence projects in the area more rapidly, although the Chinese may not be particularly pleased with being neighbors to US military forces there. China has experienced military presence alongside US forces in Bab-el-Mandeb and Djibouti for the past two years, and the proximity of the two powers in Duqm is the latest development in this regard. With the signing of the military presence agreement in the ports of Duqm and Salalah, the US aims to achieve two goals with one move, with the oversight of the Islamic Republic's activities and provocations in the region being far more important than competition with China.