Is a 'New Malicious Axis' Emerging Against the West?

The military support from North Korea, Iran, and China for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine raises the question of whether a 'new axis' of what has been termed 'increasing malicious partnerships' is emerging. American media reports suggest that the shared hostility of these countries towards Washington may increasingly drive them to collaborate with one another, simultaneously strengthening threats against the U.S. or its allies in multiple regions around the world. Reasons for North Korea, China, and Iran's support for Russia: U.S. intelligence services indicate that thousands of North Korean soldiers entered Russia for training in October, raising concerns that they will be deployed to bolster Russian fronts in its invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran has previously participated in the war by sending its drones to Russia, and last month the U.S. announced that Tehran had also sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. In this context, CNN reported that these collaborations have raised alarm bells from the U.S. and its allies, indicating that increasing coordination among anti-Western countries creates a much broader and more immediate security threat, and that their cooperation is becoming more overtly military. All three countries—North Korea, Iran, and China—have denied providing assistance to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, but a congressional-backed group assessing U.S. defense strategy labeled Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as an 'axis of increasing malicious partnerships' last summer. According to CNN, the main concern is that a shared enmity towards the U.S. increasingly drives these countries to collaborate, amplifying the threats each poses to Washington or its allies not just in one region, but perhaps across multiple areas of the world. The linkage of the war in Europe with Cold War tensions on the Korean Peninsula: U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed on October 24 the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, stating, 'If North Korea participates in belligerence, its intent to engage in war on behalf of Russia is a very serious matter, affecting not only Europe but also issues in the Pacific and Indian regions.' CNN noted that decades after the Axis powers of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan during World War II, and the staunch anti-Western coalition during the Cold War, as well as years after George W. Bush labeled Iran, Iraq, and North Korea as the 'Axis of Evil,' there is a perception that a dangerous new alignment is forming, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine acting as its catalyst. The alignment of two nuclear-armed powers, namely China and Russia, alongside North Korea—which is believed to have developed a significant stockpile of illegal nuclear warheads—and Iran, which the U.S. claims could potentially produce the materials for such a weapon within weeks, has brought them together around an axis. North Korea's military partnership with Russia in the invasion of Ukraine now links this intense conflict in Europe with Cold War tensions on the Korean Peninsula. In recent months, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has increased his threats against South Korea; the two countries remain technically at war. Following information about the deployment of North Korean forces in Russia, South Korea announced it might consider supplying weapons to Ukraine, although Seoul has not yet directly provided arms to Ukraine. What does North Korea expect from Russia? While the North Korean leader has recently called for the development of his country's illegal nuclear weapons program, from Pyongyang's perspective, sending millions of artillery shells, short-range ballistic missiles, and eventually military forces to Russia poses little risk for North Korea. This is because, in exchange for such military support, Pyongyang, which is isolated internationally, is likely to receive food and other services, and could also potentially benefit from Russian support for its space capabilities and assistance with its missile program. The New York Times also reported, citing military analysts, that North Korea's leader is likely to receive two types of assistance from Russia: first, short-term military capabilities, and second, long-term strategic guarantees that could strengthen North Korea's position against the U.S. and its neighbors. Victor Cha, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University and head of the Korea section at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, stated that there is no stronger signal a country can send to another than the deployment of troops to the battlefield. He added that sending troops to Russia gives the North Korean leader leverage for high demands from Russia. The New York Times reported that U.S. officials believe a recent signed document between North Korea and Russia, known as the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, paved the way for the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Ukraine and other collaborations. What do Iran and China expect? CNN added regarding the cooperation between Russia and Iran that the deepening security cooperation between the two countries dates back to 2015 and the Syrian civil war, where both supported Bashar al-Assad's regime, and the significance of drone warfare in Ukraine has made Russia look to Iran for drone purchases. The American media noted that for Tehran, which is under heavy Western sanctions and embroiled in Middle Eastern tensions, supplying arms to Russia could potentially strengthen its defense sector. Xi Jinping, the President of China, declared a 'limitless' cooperation between Russia and China weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, claiming neutrality in this war while largely prohibiting Chinese companies from providing direct lethal assistance to Russia. However, it has met Russia's severe needs for other goods, including products that the U.S. and others consider to have dual-use applications. In return for such support, China has benefited from cheap Russian energy. Furthermore, Beijing has continued to expand joint military exercises and diplomatic relations with Russia, viewing Moscow as a key partner in pushing back against the West in international forums. Will the new alignment last beyond the Ukraine war? CNN, based on observer analysis, stated that these four countries have different motivations for cooperating with one another and, especially regarding the Ukraine war, currently have clear limitations for broader coordination and mutual trust. Alex Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Eurasia Center in Berlin, told CNN that these collaborations are 'a set of bilateral relationships driven by each country's survival strategy, or geopolitical issues and crises they have faced over the past decade.' He added, 'These are authoritarian regimes, and they all see the U.S. as a common enemy. This is the glue that holds them together, but in response to whether we can speak of a degree of coordination among all four countries, I think we have not yet reached that stage.' CNN posed the question of whether this new alignment could endure beyond the Ukraine war and evolve into full coordination among the four countries. In response, the media noted that some analysts assess that the current cooperation among these four countries increases the risk of coordination in potential future conflicts— including those centered around China rather than Russia—among these four nations. Sydney Seiler: There is a risk of the U.S. potentially facing a conflict in the future involving multiple countries from this group. For instance, in a potential conflict in the South China Sea or over Taiwan, Beijing might use North Korea or Russia to create distractions in Northeast Asia. However, some experts warn that this axis or such an axis in the future should not be viewed as a predetermined outcome, as these relationships are opportunistic rather than based on deep ideological alignment or trust. According to Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, China may encourage 'some more moderate behaviors,' which could reduce the capacity of this axis. He added, however, that based on the current situation, there is a significant risk of the U.S. potentially facing a conflict in the future involving multiple countries from this group. Mr. Seiler also specifically referenced the relationship between North Korea and Russia, stating that the friendship between Kim and Putin could have lasting impacts on U.S. foreign policy and how countries interact globally.