Is a War Between Israel and Hezbollah Imminent After the 'Third Phase' of the Gaza War?

The course of events, signs, and statements from some diplomats indicate that the likelihood of Israel declaring war on Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah forces from the south of the country is increasing day by day. However, some experts disagree and believe that tensions between Israel and Hezbollah will continue in their current form. Ashraf Rifi, a member of the Lebanese Parliament, describes the current state of tension: 'The tensions and threats that began on October 8 have reached their peak, raising concerns about the expansion of the current war, which has already claimed the lives of hundreds of Lebanese and led to the destruction of thousands of housing units. Additionally, the economic and environmental damages caused by Israel's daily incursions into the country have increased.' He continued: 'Based on our national duty to represent the Lebanese people, I emphasize that we are firmly opposed to dragging Lebanon into a war that has nothing to do with it.' Are Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of a large-scale war? Concerns about the onset of a large-scale war. The German newspaper Bild reported on Monday, July 2, citing diplomatic sources, that if Hezbollah's rocket and drone attacks continue, Israel will begin its assault on Lebanon in the second half of this month (July). Hezbollah states that as long as Israel continues its military operations in the Gaza Strip, its rocket and drone attacks on Israel will persist. The German airline Lufthansa also announced on Monday that due to concerns about the onset of a large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, it would suspend nighttime flights to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, until the end of July. 'The readiness of the United States' to evacuate its citizens in the event of war between Israel and Hezbollah. The United States, Russia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, and several European countries have also urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. Meanwhile, the question arises: with the onset of the third phase of Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip, has the groundwork been laid for a large-scale military operation by Israel in Lebanon? What are the possible scenarios at this stage? Since October 8, Hezbollah's rocket and drone attacks on Israel began; one day after the surprise attack by the extremist group Hamas on Israeli cities and settlements and the start of the war in the Gaza Strip; both groups are recognized as terrorist organizations by the U.S. and Europe. Hezbollah claims that its aim with the rocket and drone attacks on Israel is to alleviate pressure on the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, an area currently facing Israeli military operations aimed at destroying the extremist group Hamas. Israel's reactions to Hezbollah's attacks have so far resulted in approximately 480 deaths in Lebanon, most of whom are Hezbollah members. Regarding the Bild report, Israeli political expert Eli Nissan told the Al-Hurra network that this report may have been based on leaked information from Israeli sources. Nissan added: 'Tensions between the Israeli army and Hezbollah have continued for over nine months, encouraged by Iran. Israel cannot endure this situation for long.' During this time, thousands of residents in northern Israel have been forced to leave their homes and move to government-rented hotels in areas far from the conflict. Economic and industrial activities in these regions have also come to a halt. Eli Nissan states that September marks the beginning of the school year, and the Israeli government must resolve the issue before then. Contrary to Mr. Nissan, Israeli political analyst Yoav Stern believes that it is unlikely that the leaked information comes from diplomatic sources. He states that typically 'attacks do not occur in this manner and are not planned based on media statements. The party intending to initiate an attack tries to maintain the element of surprise.' He continued: 'I believe these reports are based on European assessments or diplomatic sources, and the Israeli side never announces the timing of its military operations.' He does not rule out the possibility of a large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah but emphasizes 'not at the time specified by the Bild newspaper.' A commander of one of Hezbollah's units in southern Lebanon has been killed. In addition to military drills and preparations by the Israeli army, hospitals in northern Israel have been put on alert. Reports have also emerged of increased sales of small power generators due to concerns about power outages in the event of war with Hezbollah. Yoav Galant, Israel's Defense Minister, stated on Friday that Israel 'is not seeking war [with Hezbollah]' and considers a diplomatic solution to the tensions appropriate. However, he emphasized that Israel is prepared for a large-scale conflict and 'the ball is now in Hezbollah's court.' The Israeli army also announced a few weeks ago that plans for an attack on Lebanon had been approved. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, has threatened that if a large-scale war begins, his group will fight 'without adhering to any rules.' Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, also expressed concern last week about the onset of a large-scale war, stating: 'I am very worried, very worried. Every day the crisis expands. Every day more attacks occur on both sides of the border between Lebanon and Israel. Unfortunately, I believe we are on the brink of war, on the brink of an expanded conflict.' However, Makram Rabah, a professor at the American University of Beirut, believes that Hezbollah and Iranian officials aim to unify aligned groups. He stated to Radio Farda: 'I think Hezbollah and Iran want to unify the fronts. In other words, they believe that a ceasefire in Gaza will lead to a ceasefire in Lebanon. But this is not true. Israel does not consider these fronts as one, and the northern front of Israel is managed differently. Now, talking about a ceasefire or, in other words, stopping military actions on the northern front of Israel is not accurate.' Mr. Rabah believes that Israel will not engage in a classic war with Hezbollah: 'In the next phase, it will be like a surgical operation, and we will not witness a classic military assault. I believe the Israeli military organization understands the threat Hezbollah poses to its security and will not retreat from its actions.'