Is Ayatollah Khamenei Opposed to a Final Nuclear Agreement?

As the deadline of June 30 approaches, in three weeks the Islamic Republic of Iran and world powers (in the 5+1 group including the United States, France, Germany, China, Russia, and Germany) will reach the end of a marathon of nuclear talks—one of the longest negotiations in history. The position and opinion of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, regarding the nuclear negotiations and the terms of the final nuclear agreement could be the most decisive factor in achieving or not achieving a final agreement by the end of June. Khamenei's recent statements—which indicate that a final agreement is unattainable by the end of June—are completely inconsistent with reality. There must always be a distinction between Khamenei's public statements to the media and what his office instructs senior officials of the IRGC, Quds Force, intelligence forces, and nuclear negotiators. Analyzing Khamenei's position regarding the marathon nuclear negotiations from the beginning of the negotiation process leads us to conclude that his public statements do not represent his will at all. Recent leaked information and Khamenei's statements indicate serious red lines and inflexibility in his position regarding the nuclear negotiations. However, the main question is whether he will show more flexibility as the deadline for negotiations approaches. Some leaked information suggests that he is indeed willing to overlook red lines and reach a final agreement. Recently, Khamenei stated: 'We will never succumb to pressure... We will never accept unreasonable demands... We will never allow access to our (nuclear) scientists.' He added: 'They have said that we must allow interviews with our nuclear scientists. This means interrogation... I will not allow foreigners to talk to our nuclear scientists and interrogate our dear children who have gathered valuable (nuclear) knowledge for us. We will not allow them to infringe on the private domain of our nuclear scientists.' Furthermore, he has clearly stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not allow foreign inspectors to review Iran's military facilities. However, when Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister and one of the Leader's advisors, Abbas Araqchi, was questioned alongside Mohammad Javad Zarif in a closed-door meeting in Parliament, he said something different. A hardline member of Parliament, Hamid Rasai, published Araqchi's statement regarding granting permission for inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities on his website. According to leaked information, Araqchi stated that he and the negotiating team have the authority to grant permission for inspections of Iran's military facilities. It should be noted that Araqchi and Zarif would not make such statements without permission from the Leader of Iran. This indicates that Khamenei has told the negotiating team to disregard the red lines he has drawn in public. The issue of inspections of nuclear facilities is a crucial point in the talks. If the Leader's statements regarding his opposition to inspections were true, the possibility of reaching a final nuclear agreement would be completely eliminated, and there would be no need for the Iranian team to go to Vienna. Because the United States and its Western allies would not accept any agreement that does not allow such inspections. Shortly after, Araqchi completely denied such statements. But why? It is likely that Araqchi should not have disclosed what the Leader had secretly instructed him. Khamenei is not willing to accept responsibility at all. Because Iranian politicians are aware that Araqchi and the Iranian negotiating team will not say anything without instructions from the Leader. Khamenei does not want the people and Parliament to know that the religious leader of Iran has taken a dual position; he does not want the people and Parliament to know that his public statements differ from his behind-the-scenes orders. Khamenei also does not want to publicly acknowledge his need to reach a nuclear agreement. By pretending that Iran does not need such an agreement, he is trying to create a stronger negotiating position for the nuclear negotiators so that they can extract concessions from the West. The Iranian nuclear negotiating team will not take any action without the Leader's approval. The Leader of Iran is the final decision-maker on the nuclear issue. Therefore, Araqchi and Zarif would not issue any statements regarding nuclear negotiations or continue the nuclear talks without his instructions. Continuing the nuclear negotiations, especially at a table with representatives of the United States, indicates a contradiction between the position of the Leader of Iran and his advisors in public and his green light to the negotiators and granting permission for inspections of nuclear facilities in private. Nevertheless, Khamenei continues to try to present himself in public as a powerful national and religious leader opposed to any foreign oversight of his country. The Leader of Iran's double standards and the difference between his public and behind-the-scenes positions indicate the reality that he truly needs a final nuclear agreement and is likely to allow inspections of nuclear facilities to achieve this agreement. Ayatollah Khamenei is aware that a nuclear agreement will bring him geopolitical, economic, and ideological victories. Iran's nuclear facilities will not disappear if this agreement is reached, the timeline for Iran's nuclearization will decrease from one year to zero in the coming years, Iran's economy will be strengthened, and the United States will likely overlook Iran's strengthening and the wars initiated by this country in the region due to the nuclear agreement. Khamenei's tactic has always been to show power in public while refusing to accept responsibility. He uses both hardline and moderate factions to achieve such goals. He also allows the presidential office to bear the responsibility to the nation and Parliament in case of any mistakes in the nuclear negotiations, domestic and foreign policy. If the nuclear negotiations succeed, the Leader of Iran will claim the credit for this victory and further consolidate his power.