Is Iran Arming Bahraini Opponents?

The 'Arab Spring,' which might be better termed the 'Arab Suppression,' manifested in Bahrain in 2011. At that time, Bahrainis, having repeatedly witnessed Iran's claims of ownership over Bahrain for the past four decades, turned to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia for military assistance to suppress this 'spring.' The deployment of 1,500 military personnel and some tanks was sufficient to quell street protests within a few days. In 2011, thousands of protesters took to the streets demanding democracy and the rights of Shiites. Although Shiites are the majority in Bahrain, they lack political power, with Sunni rulers maintaining absolute control. Today, it is rare to find even ten people willing to protest in the streets, as those who do face five years in prison and torture to confess to any connections with outside forces. Underground opponents—China and Russia are not small islands in the Persian Gulf; they are governed by an authoritarian party and state; however, there are many dissenters and discontented individuals in those countries. The difference between China and Russia and Bahrain is that the authoritarian governments of China and Russia have experienced secret police and very strong security forces. Consequently, dissenters and opponents cannot easily organize protests or seek help and support from abroad. Bahrain, however, is a small island in the heart of the Persian Gulf that has benefited minimally from the vast oil resources of its neighbors. The Kingdom of Bahrain is a small country whose authoritarian government is dependent on larger neighboring Arab countries, while about 20% of Bahrain's population of 1.3 million are not considered citizens but rather traders, workers, or migrants residing there without full citizenship rights. However, 99.8% of Bahrain's citizens are Muslims, divided into two main branches: Sunni and Shiite. Political, military, and largely economic power is held by the Al Khalifa family. For instance, the uncle of the King of Bahrain has been the Prime Minister for 46 years, and the current 67-year-old king ascended to the throne after his father's death in 1999. The weaknesses of the regime—government power is ineffective against the structure and demographic divisions of Bahrain, and the rules applicable to larger countries like China and Russia do not apply to Bahrain. Naturally, when protests by dissenters were suppressed by Saudi and Emirati forces, the discontented Bahrainis quickly turned their gaze across the waters to neighboring countries, leading to the complete underground organization of dissenters and opponents. The overthrow of the Al Khalifa family through underground organization and the acquisition of weapons became a priority for dissenters. At one time, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince of Bahrain and Deputy Prime Minister, initiated a form of 'national dialogue' with dissenters. However, after the onset of repression and the imprisonment of dissenters, that opportunity for communication was also suspended. The Economist magazine, in its January 19 article, states that Bahrain's economic crisis is such that oil prices must double for the budget of this emirate to be balanced. In such conditions, Shiites in Bahrain are more affected by poverty and social and economic inequality than Sunnis. The magazine reports that while Shiites live in neighborhoods surrounded by barbed wire and fences, Sunnis and foreigners benefit from housing projects in towers and advanced areas. Considering such unequal economic and social conditions, one can easily understand the reasons for the existing tensions in the unequal society and realize how Shiites in Bahrain have their eyes turned towards Iran, while Iran may be seeking to exploit this situation to expand its regional influence and promote what is referred to as the 'Shia Crescent,' causing concern for many Sunni countries in the region. After the economy, the greatest weakness of Bahrain is the country's inability to achieve some form of consensus and national agreement with Shiites and reach an agreement for participation in national power. The result of this inability is the violation of the rights of a significant portion of the population and the weakness in upholding human rights through the repression of opponents. Since 2011, alongside severe repression and a decrease in street protests, the opposition movement has become underground and armed. Since then, there have been scattered arrests of Shiites and leaders of the Shiite community, often accompanied by the discovery of weapons. Recently, Bahraini officials have spoken of discovering weapons in underground hideouts and have pointed the finger at Iran as a supporter and source of arms transfers to Bahrain. Naturally, Bahrain's security issues cannot be resolved with scattered discoveries of weapons or the sporadic arrest of armed activists. Although the sentences issued against the charges are disproportionate, every time a Shiite cleric is brought to court, he emerges with heavy sentences. In the latest of these trials, according to a report by Al-Monitor, the Bahraini High Criminal Court accused Sheikh Isa Qassim, the spiritual leader of Bahrain's Shiites, of money laundering, but due to concerns about public reaction, the verdict has yet to be announced and has been delayed until May. Sheikh Qassim is accused of receiving approximately $10 million from Iranian and Iraqi sectarian groups and transferring it to his personal account in a Bahraini bank. The origin of this issue dates back to before the Arab Spring in 2009, but its developments have led to constitutional reforms and the granting of new powers to military courts. With this change in the constitution, military courts can now intervene in cases related to security disturbances. As a result, the situation for demonstrators and opponents of the Bahraini regime can lead to military trials. On the other hand, with the movement of significant amounts of weapons and equipment convertible to bombs in Bahrain, the issue of opponents and their connections with abroad takes on a new dimension. Recently, Bahraini police discovered an underground complex where approximately 20,000 hydraulic presses and metal machining devices for producing parts that could be launched at tanks were stored. Additionally, several packages of military explosives of the type (S-4) were discovered, which, according to the Washington Post, are sufficient to sink a military ship. According to the Washington Post, Bahraini experts submitted a report of their assessment regarding the discovered items to American and European officials, stating that these items are primarily of a type that had not previously been recorded in Bahrain. The firepower of this equipment could change the rules of the game and be used against the poorly equipped Bahraini police. Signs of the growth of armed resistance against the Bahraini regime have been observed in various forms for several years. So far, bombs and roadside explosive traps, explosives, and weapons have been discovered from hideouts, and it has been said that they are mainly smuggled by sea. Until recently, Westerners avoided accusing Iran of direct intervention in Bahrain's unrest for two reasons: first, they considered the evidence and reasons insufficient; and second, they were concerned that raising the issue would imply recognizing Iran's ability to escalate conflict. One experienced intelligence expert told the Washington Post, 'We are observing more evidence of destabilizing actions by Iran.' Of course, the Washington Post report emphasizes that Western security experts typically speak with media on the condition of anonymity, while statements from Bahraini officials are often 'exaggerated'—but both groups point to realities. However, Bahraini officials have repeatedly directed such accusations at Iran and have used them as a pretext to suppress their Shiite opponents. Western disinterest is decreasing, and as time goes on, more documents and evidence of Iranian intervention in Bahrain are emerging. Among these is a training program provided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which trains various groups, including Bahrainis, in guerrilla warfare and bomb-making. Over the past three years, a wide range of weapons has increasingly been presented as evidence that Iran is the source of their production or shipment. According to American intelligence and security officials, it seems that Iran is seeking to establish pro-Iranian militia groups in Bahrain, similar to those in other parts of the Middle East such as Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, and to train them to begin operations. One experienced intelligence expert told the Washington Post, 'We are observing more evidence of destabilizing actions by Iran.' Of course, the Washington Post report emphasizes that Western security experts typically speak with media on the condition of anonymity, while statements from Bahraini officials are often 'exaggerated'—but both groups point to realities. On March 16 of this year, German security officials in Berlin issued an arrest warrant for a Bahraini Shiite asylum seeker. He was accused by Interpol of participating in an armed Shiite Bahraini group known as the 'AASHTR Brigade.' This group has claimed responsibility for attacks against the Bahraini police. The next day, on March 17, the U.S. State Department, completing a report that had been prepared since President Obama’s time, imposed sanctions on two leaders of the same group (AASHTR Brigade). These two, named Ahmad Hassan Youssef and Al-Sayed Murtaza Majid Ramadan Al-Alawi, were recognized as global terrorists, and their financial resources and assets were sanctioned by the U.S. According to the U.S. State Department, this action followed increased military and financial support from Iran and operational training of Bahraini fighters by Iran. Bahrain's poor human rights record—one reason that has hindered attention to Bahrain's claims of Iranian intervention is its very poor human rights record. In fact, Bahrain's claims of Iranian intervention are often seen among dissidents and opponents as an attempt to use this issue as a protective shield to hide its human rights problems. Matthew Levitt, a former counter-terrorism analyst at the FBI, met with Bahraini officials and investigated the arms shipments that Bahrain claims Iran provides to its opponents. He believes that due to Bahrain's very poor human rights record, it has not been possible to determine whether Iran has indeed supplied weapons and ammunition to Bahrain's opponents. As he puts it, it was impossible to determine whether Bahrain's cries are 'the howl of a howling wolf or the howl of a wolf outside the door.' He notes the lack of credibility of Bahrain's claims and states that distinguishing reality from claims has been difficult for this reason. However, over the past year, Bahraini officials have cooperated more and allowed foreign officials, including Americans, to test and examine documents and evidence. As a result of these investigations, evidence has been prepared that the Washington Post also used in its article. This file includes technical reports from a small mountain of weapons and explosives discovered from Bahraini fighters after 2013. This collection includes various small arms, grenades, explosives, and detonators that clearly show signs of Iranian manufacture. The report mentions 418 pounds (approximately 200 kilograms) of explosives of the type (S-4), which is equivalent in quantity to the explosives used by Al-Qaeda in 2000 to blow up the USS Cole off the coast of Yemen. U.S. actions—In the last days of March, the new U.S. government announced that it would lift the ban on the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Bahrain and resume the sale of this type of military aircraft. Last year, after the Bahraini government declared the activities of the Shiite group Al-Wefaq illegal, the sale of F-16s to Bahrain was halted at the direction of President Obama. The new action by the White House emphasizes the issue of human rights in Bahrain and believes it should be scrutinized, while also being concerned about the expansion of Iranian influence in the region and explicitly accusing Iran of...