Is Iran's Population Aging?

Following repeated statements by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic regarding the need to increase the country's population, officials and media have frequently discussed the aging population and the need for population growth. Beyond the ideological approach of the Islamic Republic's officials and Shia clergy to increase population (aimed at enhancing the power of the Islamic Republic in the region and increasing the number of Shia), do these statements have a realistic and scientific basis? Demographic statistics indicate a significant increase in the elderly population of Iran. A notable decrease in population growth (at a rate of about 1.3% annually) alongside factors such as improved healthcare and nutrition (in some segments) are gradually changing the demographic composition of the country. The elderly population is increasing as the average lifespan of individuals rises. This does not mean a reversal of the age pyramid with the elderly replacing the youth, but rather the population pyramid is taking on a tree-like shape with a large trunk. The population over 65 years old was about 3.5 million in 2011. In the next 20 years, 15 million will be added to the elderly population, as the population aged 40 to 60 in 2011 (which today is between 45 and 65) was about 15 million. Assuming the 3.5 million people aged 65 and older today pass away in twenty years and life expectancy in Iran rises to about 85 years in the next twenty years, the elderly population in 2036 will be about 15 million, which is about 11.5 million more than today. Given the life expectancy in Iran (72 to 75 years according to various reports), not all of the aforementioned 15 million will be alive in 2036, and the estimated population over 65 in that year will be less than 10 million. However, this figure does not imply an aging population, as it will still represent about 10% of the population at that time. Therefore, the country's population is not aging; rather, the number of elderly individuals is increasing. Islamic Republic officials intentionally or unintentionally conflate these two issues to advance the Supreme Leader's population policy (aiming for a country with 150 to 200 million people). Despite this significant growth, the country's population pyramid will not invert, as first, despite the decrease in population growth, about one million people will still be added to the population annually at the same 1.3% growth rate, making concerns about population decline unfounded. Second, in the next 20 years, the elderly population will not surpass the middle-aged and youth populations, thus concerns about a lack of young labor force are also unfounded. As much as the Iranian economy can create jobs, young job seekers will be present in the labor market. Concerns mainly relate to how to care for this elderly population and the costs that this population will impose on the government and social security organizations. The increase in the elderly segment of the population does not mean the population is aging, but it does have three implications for the elderly population. The first implication is the existence of a larger number of elderly individuals who must live independently. In times when there were fewer elderly, younger family members could take care of them. However, today the ratio of elderly to young people is increasing (such as in single-child families), making it difficult for young and middle-aged individuals to care for the elderly in the family. Additionally, elderly individuals are living longer, which increases the burden of care. The second implication is the greater dependency of the elderly on caregivers. Elderly care is becoming a widespread profession in Iran, evident in the increasing number of home caregivers and nursing homes. The third implication is the increased influence of the elderly on social policies. Elderly individuals are much more aware of news and societal developments than the youth and participate more in important decision-making processes like elections. This is observable in Iran just as in industrialized countries. As a result, politicians must keep their ears open to the demands of the elderly. The significant increase in the elderly population will have implications for the society as a whole in four aspects: employment, retirement and disability, family transformation, and health. First, young people will remain longer in the employment queue, as living on retirement benefits is difficult, and even retirees prefer to stay in the job market. However, with the increase in the elderly population due to more nursing homes and caregivers, new jobs will be created. There will also be an increasing need for centers that engage the leisure time of the elderly. The second implication is the increase in the number of retirees and disabled individuals. This will increase the financial burden of retirees on pension funds and insurance, resulting in a decrease in social security reserves in the country. The third implication is the increase in the number of two-person and single-person households. Many elderly individuals prefer to live in their own homes, and due to the small number of members in these households, the overall household size in the country decreases. The reduction in household size in Iran, of course, has other reasons besides this, such as declining birth rates and a significant portion of the population remaining single (according to the latest statistics, about 1.3 million). The fourth implication will be the increase in healthcare costs in the country. The elderly population, considering the rise in diseases that accompany individuals for a lifetime (cancer, diabetes, heart diseases), imposes a very high cost on societies, and as the elderly population increases, these costs will grow. The elderly population is generally more conservative than the young population. For this reason, conservative parties and governments welcome the increase in the elderly population. The concerns expressed about the aging population in Iran mainly come from socialist, militaristic, and messianic Islamists who need a young population for radicalizing society, territorial expansion, military intervention, and internal repression. However, Sharia-based Islamists and theocratic leaders, who wish to preserve the existing Islamic Republic and benefit from it, do not express concern over the increase in the elderly population.