Is Mojtaba Khamenei Approaching Hereditary Succession?

Nearly three decades have passed, and the people have not even heard Mojtaba Khamenei's voice; only photos of him have been published in the Leader's residence, during rallies, and at mourning ceremonies in mosques. Until this political behind-the-scenes figure in Iran announced on October 23, 2024, in a low-quality video clip with a weak voice and tone, that he was ending his advanced jurisprudence classes in Qom seminary, and that his father was not aware of this decision. The reasons behind his abrupt cancellation of a class that reportedly had nearly 700 students just one day after the new academic year began remain unclear. What prompted this decision, and should it be seen as a pathway towards the hereditary succession of 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is struggling with old age and various illnesses? Mojtaba Khamenei is referred to as 'Mr.' rather than 'the son of the leader' by critics, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged them to use only the term 'Mr.' for his son. In 2005, defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi accused Ali Khamenei of allowing his son Mojtaba to support Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf during the elections. Karroubi revealed that when one of the 'elders' told Ayatollah Khamenei that 'your son is supporting such-and-such in the elections,' Khamenei responded: 'He is Mr., not the son of the leader!' This statement brought Mojtaba Khamenei into the political arena of Iran, not only as a potential successor to the future leader but also as a behind-the-scenes figure in political developments; a curtain that has occasionally been lifted since then to reveal this 'Mr.' more prominently. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has six children: sons Mustafa, Mojtaba, Masoud, Meysam, and daughters Bashari and Hedi; Mojtaba, born in 1969, is the second son of the Supreme Leader. Mojtaba wanted to become a cleric. When Mojtaba Khamenei proposed to Zahra Hadad Adel, daughter of Gholamali Hadad Adel, in 1999, he was not yet a cleric. The Supreme Leader's wife consulted a divination method after the first proposal in 1998, but the result was unfavorable, and the matter was halted. A year later, Mojtaba's mother consulted again, and this time the result was positive, and the proposal continued. Before the wedding ceremony, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Gholamali Hadad Adel: 'I have no money to buy a house. We have rented a house where Mustafa and Mojtaba each live on a different floor. Talk to your daughter so she does not think that being the leader's daughter-in-law means a special life. If she wants to enter this life, it is somewhat difficult. Mojtaba is not yet a cleric and wants to go to Qom, study, and become a cleric; tell her this so she knows.' Mojtaba became a cleric. Among the Supreme Leader's children, Mojtaba Khamenei is considered the most similar to Ali Khamenei in both appearance and thought. Mohammad Hossein Khushvakt, brother of Mustafa Khamenei's wife, states: 'It is well-known that among the sons of the Supreme Leader, Haj Agha Mojtaba is the most similar to him, both in appearance and personal and social characteristics. But this does not mean that he intervenes in the country's political matters. Of course, due to his position, he may be consulted by some. However, the claim by adversaries that he is the source of political events in the country is not true.' Khushvakt does not explain in what areas and from what position Mojtaba Khamenei is consulted by some, and why this position is not held by, for example, Mustafa Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's first son. What do we know about Khamenei's illnesses and surgeries? Fariduddin Hadad Adel, Mojtaba Khamenei's brother-in-law, also stated in an interview with the 'Mosalaseh' yearbook (March 2011) that Mojtaba Khamenei's views and insights are completely aligned and in harmony with those of the Supreme Leader, and that 'wherever there is a duty and a command from the leader, he fulfills his responsibility.' Mohammad Hossein Khushvakt also believes that the succession of Mojtaba is 'a fabrication of some circles and foreign media to create the suspicion of hereditary leadership.' However, this fabrication is not from foreign circles and media. Mehdi Tajzadeh, the Friday prayer leader of Baharestan, stated in September 2022: 'What is wrong with Mr. Mojtaba, who is a thorn in the eyes of enemies and possesses the qualities of leadership, taking charge of people's affairs... If Mojtaba Khamenei were to sit in his father's place, it would not mean that the government of Iran is hereditary at all.' Previously, Ayatollah Abdolkarim Farahani, a member of the Assembly of Experts at the time, stated: 'Enemies should know that Mr. is healthy, and God forbid, if he is not around, thank God he has raised children, one of whom has reached the level of ijtihad and, if necessary, will take on the leadership of the Shiite world with the majority vote of the Experts.' It was these discussions that prompted former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, leader of the 2009 election protestors, to warn from house arrest in August 2022 about the hereditary succession of leadership in Iran, writing: 'The scent of tyranny is in the air. They say that if the leader is not around, thank God he has raised children who will take on the leadership of the Shiite world with the majority vote of the Experts... God forbid, are we returning to the dynasties of 2500 years ago, where a child succeeds his father? ... For thirteen years, news of this conspiracy has been heard. If they are truly not pursuing this, why do they not deny such an intention even once?' Shortly thereafter, the Assembly of Experts issued a statement calling the discussions about succession and hereditary leadership 'spreading doubts' and stated that this body focuses on 'merit-based selection and the best choice.' Leadership after Khamenei; Is it only Mojtaba and Raisi in the mix? Mojtaba became an 'Ayatollah.' Almost two weeks after Mousavi's letter, the Qom seminary news agency (Rasa) introduced Mojtaba Khamenei as an 'Ayatollah' and wrote in September 2022 that he is set to teach 'advanced jurisprudence and principles' in this seminary, a course that, according to this news agency, 'Mojtaba Khamenei has 13 years of teaching experience in.' It seems that the Assembly of Experts has marked Mojtaba Khamenei with a 'green tick' instead of crossing his name out; as Mahmoud Mohammadi-Iraqi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, stated, Mojtaba Khamenei's succession has been raised at least twice in the Assembly. Although it was said that permission was sought from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to discuss Mojtaba's name in the Assembly, and he responded: 'No; draw a line around this issue.' However, Ayatollah Khamenei's apparent opposition to his son's succession seems to stem more from a sense of 'shame'; shame from being accused of hereditary power; the same criticism that the rulers of the Islamic Republic, including Ayatollah Khamenei himself, have against the Pahlavi monarchy: 'We had one of the most reactionary governments, a hereditary monarchy; when one person dies, people must accept his child, regardless of age, conditions, or characteristics, to have absolute power over them; no criteria, no scientific, pious, or rational standards are considered.' According to Mahmoud Mohammadi-Iraqi, once Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, former head of the Assembly of Experts and a member of the leadership selection commission, raised a discussion about the scientific qualifications of one of the leader's children, the Supreme Leader, upon hearing this, rejected it, saying: 'Your actions create suspicion about the hereditary nature of leadership.' Despite this, Ayatollah Khamenei believes in another view that: 'Governance based on guardianship in Islam is incompatible with tyrannical and dictatorial governments or hereditary monarchies and legacies that are formed without virtues; if someone without a connection to the people, through inheritance and familial succession—minus the virtues and qualities that are required in governance—comes to power, this is not guardianship.' It seems that from Ayatollah Khamenei's perspective, if a person possesses true virtues and qualities, hereditary succession is not an obstacle to leadership. The conclusion is that Mojtaba must enhance his true virtues and qualities for succession. How did Mojtaba Khamenei come off the U.S. sanctions list? Mojtaba became a 'mysterious and behind-the-scenes political figure.' Throughout these years, Mojtaba Khamenei did not only study in the classrooms and chambers of the seminary but also became one of the most mysterious figures behind the scenes of politics and the 'Leader's House.' Although Mahmoud Mohammadi-Iraqi, a member of the Assembly of Experts and son-in-law of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, states that 'the leader's sons hold no responsibilities in the country,' guiding behind the political scenes without holding an official responsibility is more influential than any responsibility. Mohammad Sarafraz, the former head of the Islamic Republic's broadcasting organization, is the only official who has most notably referred to Mojtaba Khamenei's behind-the-scenes and mysterious role in the power structure and political decision-making. He mentions the direct connection between Mojtaba and Hossein Taeb, the former head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, and states that Mojtaba was interested in Taeb's security reports. In an interview with Shahrzad Mirgholikhani, a former inspector of the broadcasting organization, he also refers to meetings that took place after Mohammad Khatami's victory in the 1997 presidential election; these meetings were about how to deal with Khatami and his allies, with whom the establishment was not compatible; Mojtaba Khamenei also participated in those meetings and conveyed the results to the Supreme Leader. 'Thank Mojtaba.' The former head of the broadcasting organization also speaks of other circles and meetings that he, Mojtaba Khamenei, Hossein Taeb, and Hossein Fadaei (current head of the Supreme Leader's inspection office) attended. The political issues of the country, parliamentary or presidential elections, proposed individuals for these positions, and how to organize them for winning votes, along with security reports from Taeb, were the main subjects of these meetings. In Mojtaba Khamenei's circle, in addition to security, military, and political figures like Hossein Taeb, other figures like Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (current Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly) are also present; the same figure that Mehdi Karroubi first mentioned in 2005, stating that Mojtaba Khamenei was working for Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in the elections. Despite this, the efforts of this circle to bring Qalibaf to the presidency have repeatedly failed, with their latest attempt in the 2024 presidential elections ending in failure. Hossein Taeb was unexpectedly dismissed from his important position in July 2022 but remains a player behind the scenes of politics and in Mojtaba Khamenei's circle. A highly mysterious and sharp figure, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president, stated about him in September 2018 that he is 'unstable' and 'his job is to fabricate cases.' The Assembly of Experts labeled reports about Mojtaba Khamenei's 'hereditary succession' as 'spreading doubts.' The 'Mojtaba' rivalry has been eliminated. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 85 years old; alongside his old age, he is struggling with various illnesses, and in recent years, discussions about his succession have repeatedly arisen. In less than a decade, potential rivals to Mojtaba Khamenei have been eliminated one after another from the competition for the future leadership: Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi and Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi died after a period of illness; there are controversies regarding the cause of death of some, such as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; or their deaths are suspicious, like that of Ebrahim Raisi, while others like Hassan Rouhani are still alive and are political players who are undermined daily. Similarly, there are figures who do not have influence in the political and security layers of the country, such as Mohsen Qomi, a senior member of the Supreme Leader's office, and Alireza A'arafi and Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, the two current vice presidents of the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba's 'appearance' and 'disappearance.' Nearly three decades have passed, and the people have not even heard Mojtaba Khamenei's voice. Only photos of him have been published in the Leader's residence, during rallies, and at mourning ceremonies in mosques. Until this political behind-the-scenes figure in Iran announced on October 23, 2024, in a low-quality video clip with a weak voice and tone, that he was ending his advanced jurisprudence classes in Qom seminary, and that his father was not aware of this decision. How he canceled his class, which reportedly had nearly 700 students, just one day after the new academic year began, remains unclear! The explosion of pagers of Hezbollah members and electronic-intelligence control by Israel has made some Iranian officials very concerned for their safety. Some others believe that Mojtaba Khamenei's class cancellation is not political or protest-related but due to 'personal spiritual development.' Hojjatoleslam Saeed Solh Mirzaei, a member of the Assembly of Experts, states: 'The true reason for his (Mojtaba Khamenei's) decision could be his following the path of the scholars of the past. Ethical scholars sometimes canceled their classes when they saw their lessons thriving to train their souls unless they found a justification to oppose their ethical caution.' Beyond Mojtaba Khamenei's unexpected class cancellation reasons and motivations, what is important is that the successor to the current leader, if not met with serious and impactful opposition from the people, will emerge from within the 'Leader's House' of the Islamic Republic; a house that has a very large structure with military, security, media power, and abundant economic and financial resources. The 'hidden government' of the Islamic Republic, which has a main leg within the 'Leader's House,' currently has no more suitable candidate for the future leader of Iran than Mojtaba Khamenei, unless the power and perspective of the people decide otherwise in due time.