Is the Erosion of Support for the Islamic Republic and the Diminishing Ability of the Government to Suppress on the Horizon?

A wave of despair is evident among those who believed in the invincibility of the coalition led by the Islamic Republic in the Middle East, both inside and outside Iran. The fall of the Ba'ath regime in Syria, which was seen as a symbol of the power of the 'Resistance Front,' has not only reduced the influence of the Iranian government but has also emboldened its rivals. Followers of Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, are confronted with the bitter reality that their strategic calculations may have been overly optimistic, leading to a crisis of confidence in the ability and dominance of the 'leadership.' Furthermore, the repercussions could extend beyond Syria. The possibility of a semi-democratic or Sunni-led government could alter the balance of power in the region and further isolate the Islamic Republic, its proxy network, and its allies. In another scenario, concerns about the resurgence of Sunni extremism also exist, which could threaten stability within Iran. Following these developments, the social base of the Velayat-e Faqih institution is grappling with despair. Some supporters of this institution are questioning the effectiveness of Iran's foreign policy, leading to increased calls for reassessment. As the situation calms, it remains to be seen how Khamenei will rally his support base and respond to these growing concerns in the face of rapidly changing regional circumstances. The emergence of despair due to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the ousted president of Syria, may act as a catalyst for changes in both strategy and ideology among Khamenei's followers, as they confront the complex realities of the Middle East post-Assad's rule. The consequences of these developments extend beyond the realm of foreign policy and impact internal conflicts between the government and the majority of Iranian citizens seeking structural change in governance. After Assad's flight, psychological factors have shifted in favor of the people in their political struggle against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This variable could play a significant role in shaping behaviors and attitudes to overcome obstacles. The weakening of the Islamic Republic's power and its consecutive regional failures lead more individuals to conclude that the government is in a weaker position to impose intimidation and suppression and has suffered from cognitive and perceptual disruption. Additionally, opponents gain more confidence to strengthen resistance and promote collective identity to encourage individuals to act against the propaganda and misinformation disseminated by Khamenei's organization. This new wave of hope among opponents, along with passivity, tremors, and separation among some followers of the Velayat-e Faqih institution, enhances the possibility of a more powerful social movement in Iran that focuses on inspiration, hope, and collective action among the people to liberate themselves from an ineffective government that has placed Iran in a dangerous situation both internally and externally. The dimensions of instability, dissatisfaction, and despair among regime supporters are unclear and may also be at least partly transient and unsteady. Dissatisfaction also comes from two sides. Some see the hard core of power as the source of the problem, while others have doubts about the correctness of the fundamental policy. Unprecedented despair was first publicly expressed by the 'Beesimchi' media, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' intelligence unit, which accused Khamenei of passive behavior in response to Israel's attack on Iran. Although this post was quickly deleted and the editorial board apologized for publishing such unexpected criticism of Khamenei within the inner circle, it showed that dissatisfaction with the decisions of the Islamic Republic's leader is spreading among both extremist and moderate followers on one side and independent and opposing segments of society on the other. Another sign indicating the breaking of Khamenei's sanctity and status was a warning note from the Tasnim news agency, another media outlet linked to the Revolutionary Guards, which emphasized the importance of coordinating actions with the speed of the Islamic Republic's leader's orientation. This note suggests that 'neither from the right nor the left should they deviate from obedience to him!' Additionally, Hadi Zarei, a member of the Quds Force in Syria, spoke more explicitly in a video interview about the Iranian government's wrong actions in Syria and pointed out how the head of the IRGC has created problems for the country by exaggerating successes. In recent weeks, we have seen that major media outlets affiliated with the Velayat-e Faqih institution have made significant efforts to alleviate supporters' grief and, based on Khamenei's directives emphasizing the necessity of avoiding self-aggrandizement after victory and refraining from despair in the face of defeat, have sought to prevent the strengthening of opponents and critics. However, these efforts to prevent the social base of the Velayat-e Faqih institution from weakening seem to be fruitless. The accidents and, as they say, the frequent lucky breaks were among the main factors behind Khamenei's unstable success in the region, which seems to no longer be sustainable, and there may even be a reverse trend in the impact of random factors. Therefore, considering that psychological resilience plays a vital role in movements based on civil and collective resistance and the passivity of established power supporters, it is reasonable to expect that the process of weakening the government and the erosion of supporters due to rapid and surprising developments in the region will accelerate, ultimately leading to the erosion of its suppression capacity.