Is the Islamic Republic Sending 'Signals' to Trump?

Although the return of Donald Trump, the elected President of the United States, to the White House was a completely plausible option, the statements and behavior of leaders and senior officials of the Islamic Republic in recent days indicate that they are facing a serious challenge regarding the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has spoken out against Donald Trump many times in the past years, but in his first speech after the U.S. elections, he made no mention of the re-election of the country's elected president. Furthermore, after the U.S. elections, no official of the Islamic Republic has taken a clear stance against Trump or his future government, and an effort has been made to exercise caution in this regard. On Saturday, the French news agency reported on recent statements by officials of the Islamic Republic regarding Trump's future government, noting what it described as signs of the Islamic Republic's willingness for some form of 'opening' in the tense relations between Tehran and Washington. The first point in the statements of officials of the Islamic Republic regarding this round of the U.S. presidential election is the recognition of democracy in that country and the choice of its people. While Khamenei had referred to 'fraud' in the U.S. elections four years ago, officials of the Islamic Republic did not raise conspiracy theories this time, unlike the previous period. For example, Ismail Baghai, the spokesperson for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, said on November 7, 'The election of the President of the United States is up to the people of that country, and now the people of America have made their choice.' Even Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S., acknowledged the choice of the American people. However, some officials of the Islamic Republic are trying to focus their comments about the outcome of the U.S. election more on the defeat of Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, than on Trump's victory. Salami linked Harris's defeat to the claim that 'the Democrats fully supported the Palestinian war,' stating, 'But in practice, the American people did not vote for this party.' This group of officials claims that the current Iranian government is a supporter of peace in the region and that the American people have elected their next president in alignment with them. Moreover, the statements of officials of the Islamic Republic regarding Trump have been mostly limited to expressing hope. For instance, both Salami and Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former Foreign Minister who is now the strategic deputy to the President, have expressed hope that Trump will adopt new policies in the region and towards the Islamic Republic. This comes while a few months ago, Zarif, during the Iranian presidential election campaigns, warned in a fiery tone during a televised debate about Trump's election, stating that if Trump wins, Iran's oil sales will severely decline. The cautious statements of Iranian officials suggest that the Islamic Republic is currently in a state of suspension. Political analyst Reza Alijani in Paris responded to the question of what the cautious statements of Iranian officials mean, saying that the Islamic Republic is waiting to see what Trump's position will be. He pointed to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC during Trump's previous presidency, and the subsequent attempt by the Islamic Republic to assassinate Trump, adding that there is now 'severe pessimism' between Trump and the Islamic Republic. However, this political analyst noted that there is a 'theory of expediency' within the Islamic Republic, and Trump also prioritizes economy and trade, and 'these two elements could create flexibility in the relations between the two, although most obstacles in this regard are in Iran, especially the apocalyptic outlook of the Islamic Republic.' Jean-Pierre Perrin, a French writer and analyst, told Radio Farda that the Islamic Republic is currently in a position of weakness. According to him, this weakness can be observed in how Iran has reacted to Israeli attacks, the lack of support for Hezbollah in its war with Israel, and Tehran's efforts to reduce the pressures against itself. He stated, 'Iran is in a position of weakness. We saw that when Iran refrained from a strong reaction to the Israeli attack and decided to limit its attacks on Israel in a way that would leave no or minimal civilian casualties. Therefore, we feel that Iran is in a weak position and has been retreating incessantly in recent months. We see this retreat in Lebanon and in response to deadly Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, which has really seen no reaction from Iran. Iran is even trying to reduce the pressures surrounding it.' Perrin added, 'This position of weakness is also due to the fact that with Trump, there will no longer be a reduction in the pressures of economic sanctions. We know that Iran needs a reduction in these sanctions, and we know that the Biden administration turned a blind eye to Iran's illegal oil trade. In the future, we will see a stricter stance in this regard.' This French writer believes that Tehran's current message to Trump's victory is to enter into some form of negotiation with the U.S., 'probably not open negotiations but more secretive ones, which would also be seen as a weakness for Iran in the international arena despite its closeness to Russia and China.' It seems that what has somewhat encouraged the officials of the Islamic Republic regarding Trump's future policies are his statements on election day in response to a question about Iran. After casting his vote, Trump told reporters that his administration 'will not seek to harm Iran.' Trump emphasized that the Islamic Republic 'cannot have nuclear weapons.' He stated, 'I want them to have a very successful country, but they cannot have nuclear weapons.' Will negotiations between Tehran and Washington take shape? The Islamic Republic of Iran engaged in indirect negotiations with Washington regarding its nuclear file during Joe Biden's administration, which ended without results. There were also negotiations on other matters, and a few months ago, the Financial Times reported on a round of secret negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Oman to prevent Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic. But do the current statements of officials of the Islamic Republic and even Trump mean that a new round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington will take shape? Reza Alijani tells Radio Farda that ending the Gaza war is one of the preconditions for the success of potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Alijani believes that such negotiations face various 'ifs,' and the 'biggest if' relates to the decision of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic to adjust his policies. According to this political analyst, ending the Gaza war is also a precondition for the success of such negotiations, as in this case, 'moderate forces' and supporters of negotiation in Iran will be strengthened. Jean-Pierre Perrin also states that fundamentally, Trump 'does not have an unconditional will to strike Iran.' He told Radio Farda, 'I think Trump does not have an anti-Iran ideology. What is important for Trump is the slogan 'America First.' Therefore, if having a better relationship with Iran can help America, why not?' This French analyst emphasized that one cannot prejudge the future of relations between Israel and the U.S., stating, 'If Trump can employ diplomacy effectively, anything is possible.' Donald Trump returns to the White House amid the crises that the Islamic Republic is grappling with: Middle Eastern tensions, economic crisis, and recently, an energy crisis in Iran. In the coming months, as the new U.S. administration is established, speculation about how Trump will formulate a new U.S. policy towards the Islamic Republic will continue.