ISPA Poll Results: 75% of Surveyed Population Dissatisfied with Current Situation in the Country

Results from a poll in Iran conducted in light of the nationwide protests in December indicate that 41% of those dissatisfied with the current situation expressed a willingness to participate in protests. The poll estimates the dissatisfied population at nearly 75%. This survey was conducted by the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), and its findings were discussed in a meeting at the Strategic Studies Center of the Presidency, attended by the President's advisor and several economists and sociologists. According to a report by the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), Mohammad Aghasi, head of ISPA, described part of the data from this survey, stating that 74.8% of respondents are dissatisfied with the country's conditions, with 41% indicating they would participate in protests if they were peaceful and legal. Conversely, 48% stated they would not participate in protests under any circumstances. The recent protests in Iran began on December 7 in Mashhad with economic slogans but quickly spread to other cities, affecting around 100 cities across Iran. The protesters' slogans eventually targeted the leadership of the Islamic Republic and the entire system. Aghasi noted that about 80% of survey participants identified economic problems as the primary reason for their dissatisfaction with the current situation. Additionally, 31% of participants believed the protests were spontaneous due to the adverse conditions in the country, while 26.4% thought the protests had foreign roots, and 23.7% believed they were organized by certain domestic forces. Iranian officials have repeatedly cited economic problems as the main cause of protests in Iran. Majid Mohammadi, a sociologist residing in the U.S., commented on the widespread protests in December, stating that the separation of politics and economics, which is also reflected in analyses produced by government institutions, is a futile and misleading distinction. In Iran, there is no free market economy to separate livelihood and politics; every protest is political because the government is involved in all areas. When commanders of the IRGC own restaurants and pastry shops, protests against them also become political. A government that controls most of the country's wealth and income cannot create a distinction between economic and political demands. Iranian officials have generally accused foreign countries, including Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel, of being involved in the recent protests. The Israeli Prime Minister called such accusations 'ridiculous,' while the U.S. attributed the protests to 'injustices' and 'widespread repression.' Meanwhile, some reformists have issued statements calling the attribution of these protests to foreign countries an insult to the people. Jalil Roshandel, a political science professor in the U.S., told Radio Farda that the projection of dissatisfaction onto foreign entities is not unprecedented; this 'paranoia' has always existed among the leaders of the Islamic Republic. It seems that no event occurs in Iran without foreign involvement. Aghasi stated that 60% of survey respondents believe the current situation can be corrected with certain actions, while a survey from 2014 showed that 63.4% agreed with this statement. Protesters have also targeted reformists in some of their slogans, with 'Reformist, Principalist, the story is over' being one of the most famous. ISNA reports that Hesamuddin Ashna, an advisor to the Iranian President and head of the Strategic Studies Center, warned during the meeting based on ISPA's survey data that if the current situation continues, everyone will likely lose. He also stated, 'People apparently have no voice, but when their voice reaches politicians, it is usually too late for reforms.' According to him, '60% of the Iranian society still believes that the conditions in the country are reformable, but on the other hand, 31% have lost this belief and consider reform only possible through fundamental changes.' These statements come as many protest gatherings have chanted slogans such as 'We do not want a clerical government' and in support of the Pahlavi family, including 'Return the Shah, return the Shah.' Ashna further stated, 'Based on the results of the ISPA survey, 37.5% of the people believe that protests will continue, which indicates a decrease in the psychological security of the people and an increase in investment risk in the country.' There are no independent polling centers in Iran, and Roshandel criticized this survey, asking, 'Can issues and problems be addressed solely through a single survey without considering the root issues raised during the protests, such as a 'referendum'?'. In conclusion, Ashna said, 'We must believe that these protests were a serious warning for decision-makers; it is unclear how many more serious warnings we will have, but what is clear is that if we do not take these warnings seriously, we will face a disaster.' ISNA also reported the remarks of Ahmad Tavakoli, a principlist figure, who stated that one of the characteristics of the recent protests was that the Iranian government explicitly recognized the people's right to protest for the first time. This comes amid reports from Iranian officials that at least 25 people were killed during the recent protests. A member of parliament stated on February 3 that 'five thousand people' were arrested during the protests in Iranian cities, and '500 people' remain in custody.