Israel and Confrontation with Iranian Influence in Syria

The American magazine Foreign Policy, in a detailed report titled "Israel Goes to War in Syria to Counter Iran," emphasizes that Israeli officials, feeling isolated in this struggle, have recently been speaking more clearly about this confrontation. The report begins by noting the belief among Israeli officials that Iran's dominance in the Middle East is strengthening, prompting Israel to take military and political measures to counter the threat of Iran's foothold approaching its borders. The magazine refers to the repeated bombings of targets in Syria attributed to Israel, aimed at preventing the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah from Syrian territory; attacks that Israel has confirmed directly or indirectly. Among the actions Israel has taken to counter the strengthening military presence of Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah, is the airstrike three weeks ago against a factory linked to the Syrian military-industrial complex in the city of Masyaf in Hama province, as well as the downing of an Iranian drone in Hezbollah's possession, which was shot down by a Patriot missile from northern Israel in the Golan Heights. According to the magazine, Israel's frustration with the responses it has received from U.S. and Russian officials regarding countering "Iran's foothold in Syria" has encouraged it to escalate military attacks in Syria. However, since the mid-point of the Syrian civil war, as Bashar al-Assad's government became increasingly dependent on Iran and Hezbollah, Israel has expressed concern about the potential opening of a "second front" in the Golan Heights by Hezbollah and Iran, in addition to southern Lebanon. In January 2015, when Mohammad Ali Allahdadi, a senior commander of the Revolutionary Guards, along with Jihad Mughniyeh, the 18-year-old son of the slain Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, and five other Hezbollah members arrived at "Farm of Hope" in Quneitra near the occupied Golan Heights, they were looking at the Israeli side of the Golan with a camera in hand. In airstrikes attributed to Israel, both vehicles exploded, killing all seven. However, for some time now, as Bashar al-Assad's government, with the help of Iran and Russia and the extensive assistance of thousands of Hezbollah fighters, has achieved more victories in the nearly seven-year civil war, the alarm bells from Israel regarding the "increasing military presence of Iran and its allies" near the Syrian border with Israel have grown louder. According to Foreign Policy, the "Syria we once knew" no longer exists; it is a government whose strings are in the hands of Iranian and Russian rulers, and part of its territory is still beyond the control of Syrian government forces. Meanwhile, the Iranian-led camp, which openly speaks of destroying and erasing the existence of Israel, has gained the upper hand, and the remaining buffer zone between this camp and Israeli territory is diminishing. For some time now, current and former Israeli politicians, military commanders, and a dozen of the country's intelligence and security experts have been warning in their media and internationally about the "creation of a land corridor from Tehran to the Mediterranean coast in Syria," stating that Iran is establishing naval, aerial, and ground bases in Syria for itself and strengthening Hezbollah there. Israel's concerns intensified when Iranian-allied forces reached the Albu Kamal area on the Syrian-Iraqi border, heightening fears of a corridor from Iran to the Syrian coast or just a few kilometers from Israeli territory in the Golan Heights, which Israel has already expressed horror about. Syrian opposition groups report on Iranian activities and its allies in areas like Tal al-Shaar and Tal al-Ahmar and Brigade 90, all near the border with Israel. Israel also expresses deep concern about the strengthening of Iraqi Shiite groups allied with Iran, such as al-Nujaba, which have become powerful through unity with Iran and Hezbollah and internal developments in Iraq, and the possibility of their joining Hezbollah and aligning with Iran's objectives in the region. Foreign Policy also recalls that Israel's concerns particularly intensified when al-Nujaba introduced part of its forces under the name "Liberators of the Golan"; Israel fears that Iran could easily reach Syria from Iraqi territory and up to the port of Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. Al-Quds al-Arabi, a London-based Arabic newspaper, recently reported on Iran's plan to reduce the Sunni Arab population between Damascus and the Lebanese border and replace them with pro-Damascus Shiites, both domestic and foreign. On the other hand, the ceasefire that was brokered directly by the U.S. and Russia since mid-July this year, under the title of "de-escalation zones" in southwestern Syria near Israel, has increased security risks for Israel according to Israeli officials. Israeli media reported in recent weeks that the country sought guarantees in this ceasefire that Iranian forces would not come within 60 kilometers of the Syrian-Israeli border, but neither the U.S. nor Russia provided such guarantees. While Foreign Policy notes that although rapid airstrikes and other military actions attributed to Israel are one of the country's strategies to counter Iran and its proxy groups in Syria, Israel is also pursuing a second strategy of providing medical and food aid and other facilities to certain groups of Syrian opposition. Foreign Policy adds that these opposition groups, such as the Golan Knights, which still control most of the areas near the Syrian border with Israel, benefit from Israeli aid, although there is no evidence of Israeli weapon shipments to these opposition groups. General Gadi Eisenkot, the commander of the Israeli army, recently mentioned in an interview with his country's media on the occasion of the Hebrew New Year the motivations for assisting certain opposition groups and treating injured Syrian border residents in Israeli hospitals, describing it as an action to strengthen cooperation between Israel and local people in countering security threats posed by Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during the hot summer of this year when the Syria-Iran-Russia-Hezbollah axis was achieving more military victories, first sent Yossi Cohen, head of Mossad, with a delegation to Washington, and then went himself to the resort city of Sochi to raise these "threats" for Israel. Although Netanyahu had previously stated that "based on our experiences" Mr. Putin has a "listening ear" for understanding Israel's security needs and has always respected them, later Israeli media revealed that both Yossi Cohen in Washington and Netanyahu in Sochi did not receive very satisfactory responses. Foreign Policy notes that expressing concern about immediate threats is one of the strategic cultural traits of Israelis, but it also points out that the U.S. does not view regional issues exactly as Israel does, and thus Israel has come to believe that it must rely solely on its own capabilities. The recent "anti-terrorism" conference in Herzliya provided a new opportunity to show that Israeli officials in their think tanks and at military and political levels and in government meetings and media discussions divide the region into four spheres of influence: 1. Iran and its proxies, 2. the not-so-strong camp of Arab governments opposing Iran (except Qatar), which are practically allied with Egypt, Jordan, and Israel itself, 3. the camp of conservative Sunni forces such as Turkey, Qatar, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Sunni Arab rebels in Syria, and 4. the regional networks of Sunni Salafi jihadists, led by ISIS and al-Qaeda. However, Israeli officials acknowledge that in the influence of these four camps on changing the regional configuration, it is Iran and its allies that have the upper hand and possess the potential to further strengthen this space in their favor. Foreign Policy also writes that although Donald Trump and his associates share in Israeli assessments regarding the challenges posed by Iran's ambitions, the U.S., which is focused on fighting ISIS, has not taken any actions so far, either politically or militarily, to confront Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Yisrael Katz, Israel's Minister of Information, recently stated at the "anti-terrorism" conference in Herzliya that in a new war against Israel, Iran and Hezbollah want to pour tens of thousands of Shiite forces from around the world into the region. These remarks from this senior member of the ruling Likud party are not unfounded; Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, who has repeatedly stated that "money, weapons, and everything Hezbollah has comes from Iran," recently emphasized more explicitly that future wars will not only be between Hezbollah and Israel but that "tens of thousands of other forces" will also participate in this "jihad." Israel has kept the political solution for this confrontation open through repeated references to international mediators, and in this context, Netanyahu took advantage of his recent presence at the United Nations General Assembly to meet with Donald Trump and several other leaders to align them with Israel's concerns. The Russians have been militarily present in Syria since September 2015 and have never opposed Israeli attacks attributed to Israel in Syria, and only once summoned the Israeli ambassador in Moscow, which, according to Israeli media, did not affect Jerusalem-Moscow relations. Of course, Israel, with the approval of international military experts, considers its military force in the region unrivaled and, since it has not seen the necessary cooperation from Russia, let alone from the U.S., has made greater use of its military capabilities. At the same time, according to Foreign Policy, since Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has no ideological hostility towards Israel and does not show particular support for Tehran, Israel wants the Russians to allow it to operate freely in its attacks in Syria. While Foreign Policy assesses that Israel is going to war in Syria to confront Iran, Israeli military evaluations released to their media on the occasion of the Hebrew New Year and the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War again emphasized the "serious dangers" posed by Iran's military strengthening in Syria. However, contrary to Israeli assessments and Foreign Policy's evaluation that Russia has allowed Israel to attack Iranian and Hezbollah-affiliated targets in Syria, Tasnim, a news agency close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, recently wrote that "Russia supports the strengthening of Iran's influence in the region." Tasnim, relying on analyses from the Russian newspaper Pravda and the American Wall Street Journal, added that "in the event of a war between Iran and Israel, Russia will undoubtedly side with Iran" because "the expansion of Iran's influence throughout the Middle East has not only not worried Russia, but has been beneficial for Moscow" and that the "political-military alliance to support Damascus" that has developed between Iran and Russia in recent years "is still expanding and strengthening." Tasnim, which also referred to Iran's long-range missiles as "Israel-striking" last Saturday, posed the question, "Will Israel's attacks in Syria lead to confrontation with Iran?" and wrote, "The possibility of a dangerous geopolitical game between Israel and Iran has significantly increased." In this context, Israeli officials' assessments of a "fourfold increase" in Iran's annual assistance to Hezbollah, an Israeli general's comment on the similarity between Iranians and Israelis increasing their danger, and the Israeli defense minister's statement that they will take any action to counter the Shiite corridor from Tehran to Damascus.