Israeli Media Analysis of Nasrallah's Death: Warnings and Possible Consequences for Iran

The Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army wrote minutes after the Israeli Army's tweet about the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on Hezbollah's command center, "This is not our last arrow in the quiver." Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi added: "This is a message to all those who threaten the citizens of Israel; they must know that our hand can reach them too." According to commentators in Israeli media, the statements of the Chief of Staff on the day of Nasrallah's death reflect the country's policy in operations in the region in the post-Nasrallah era. Hezbollah Lebanon is both a militia group and a political party and controls a large part of southern Lebanon. Israeli media emphasize that a week and a half ago, when the cabinet added the goal of "safely returning residents of the north" to the ongoing war objectives in the region, it communicated general approval for striking Hezbollah leaders to the army and set aside considerations from the past three decades of refraining from targeting them. Meanwhile, a former official from the security circles of Mossad warned about Netanyahu's warning to Iran, saying, "If Tehran does not understand it, this warning will be implemented." He also pointed to the importance of Khark Island for Iran, stating that a strike on it "is entirely feasible for Israel, similar to Israel's severe strikes on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen." Following a series of explosions of pagers and communication equipment of Hezbollah forces on the 27th and 28th of Shahrivar, Israeli officials, without accepting responsibility, stated that Hezbollah should avoid tying its fate to Hamas in Gaza. The United States and the European Union consider Hamas a terrorist organization. Daniel Hagari, the army spokesman, stated that Hezbollah joined the war against Israel on the 16th of Mehr last year (one day after the extremist group Hamas attacked Israel) and plunged Lebanon and the entire region into crisis. The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but the European Union has placed its military wing on the blacklist and does not consider its political wing to be terrorist, while Hezbollah's political party also has representatives in the Lebanese parliament. However, in his last speech from his hideout on the 29th of Shahrivar, Hassan Nasrallah vowed that as long as the Israeli army is present in Gaza and continues the war, his group will not cease attacking Israel. That speech was Nasrallah's last address, and he has not been seen or heard from in the past eight days. Details of the Israeli attack report that 80 tons of explosives were used in the destruction of Hezbollah's underground tunnel. Yoav Galant, the Minister of Defense, was present on Friday evening alongside Herzi Halevi, the Chief of Staff, at the fortified underground headquarters of the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv. After receiving a phone approval from Benjamin Netanyahu for the attack and seizing the opportunity, they ordered General Tomer Bar, the commander of the air force, to send the fighter pilots flying over Lebanon to the operation. At that moment, Benjamin Netanyahu had just left the podium of the United Nations in New York and was aware that the fighter jets were in flight during his speech. The success of the Israeli army's operation in striking Hezbollah's command center, carried out under the title "New Order," has created a joyous atmosphere in Israel. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israelis around the world celebrated Nasrallah's death and interpreted this operation as a response "to decades of suffering and concern from Nasrallah's threats." Yedioth Ahronoth quoted "a senior military official" from Israel as saying: "But if Hashem Safi al-Din is alive and replaces Nasrallah in leading Hezbollah, he will be a more radical figure who is more loyal to the Iranian leader than Nasrallah." Commentators in Israeli media have raised the question of how the success of this operation can achieve Israel's strategic goal of safely returning refugees from the north. Some Israeli commentators and former military personnel have emphasized in media discussions the necessity of continuing military operations and even escalating them to ensure a safe environment for the return of tens of thousands of residents from the north of the country. A group of Israeli politicians and military and security analysts in these interviews emphasized that Israel, by leveraging the successes of recent days, should also intensify its confrontations with other hostile factors from Yemen to Tehran to realize the "New Order," which is the elimination of the threat environment in the region. A question that has been repeatedly asked of Israeli military analysts in media programs on Saturday, the 7th of Mehr, is why Israel did not target the leader of Hezbollah in the past and if it had this capability, why it allowed tens of thousands of Israelis to be displaced from their homes for about a year due to fears of Hezbollah attacks. The opinion of a politically opposing general to Netanyahu, reserve general Gadi Shamni, a former commander of the army forces, told Channel 13 that the difference between the current situation and the 2006 war is that Israel has gathered a large bank of precise information over the 18 years since that war about Hezbollah's structure, key and middle figures, and their weapons and headquarters, which has now been used for targeting. General Shamni, who is considered a political opponent of Benjamin Netanyahu, added: "The credit for the current operation should go to the army and intelligence and security agencies. He said Benjamin Netanyahu has been the main responsible party over the years who convinced the people of Israel that Hezbollah and Hamas were afraid of engaging with Israel, and he preferred a shaky security silence to decisive operations against these groups. He added that Israel should not become intoxicated by the recent stunning successes; the possibility of further attacks by Hezbollah still exists, and that group can carry out multiple other operations. However, General Shamni is among those former security and military forces who emphasize that killing Nasrallah and Hezbollah's leadership is not enough; the Israeli army must enter Lebanese territory with ground forces to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to assure displaced Israelis that their security is guaranteed. Warnings to the Iranian government regarding the possible Iranian reaction to Hassan Nasrallah's death is another main topic that has occupied Israeli media and analysts. These media emphasize that Netanyahu's warning in his speech on Friday evening at the United Nations, which told Iran that if you attack us, we will attack you in Iran, was meant to deter the Iranian leader from responding to Nasrallah's death. Oded Ilam, a former official in the security circles of Mossad, told Channel 13 that Netanyahu's warning to Iran is clear, and if Tehran does not understand it, this warning will be implemented. Mr. Ilam also speculated that the Islamic Republic of Iran would not show a direct military reaction to Israel because Tehran's leaders are aware of their "limitations in capability" against the "military capability and efficiency of Israel." Mr. Ilam stated that Tehran is aware that a large part of its economy depends on oil exports, for example from Khark Island, a "small island" that a strike on it, "like Israel's severe strikes on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen, is entirely feasible for Israel." Reserve Air Force General Ram Shmueli, a former head of the intelligence section in the Israeli Air Force, also told Channel 13 that Israel's operation in the port of Hodeidah in Yemen two months ago in response to a deadly drone attack showed that Israel has the capability to strike oil and industrial facilities in enemy territories. He also expressed hope that the Iranian government would act cautiously and consider Israel's military capabilities; Israel still has many capabilities that it has not yet employed. With that said, a senior Israeli military officer told Yedioth Ahronoth that the Iranian government will try to respond practically to this event after the initial shock of Nasrallah's death and will not sit idly by. Other reactions: Adi Kohan, an Israeli expert on Lebanon and the Middle East, who was born in Beirut, expressed confidence that "in Iran and the entire Arab world," people are happy about Hassan Nasrallah's death. According to this expert, leaders of the Arab world, such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and a large part of Lebanese officials and the people of that neighboring country appreciate a country like Israel that powerfully implements their desired goals because they know they themselves do not have the capacity to confront these factors. Reserve General Yisrael Ziv, a former senior commander of the Israeli army, wrote on the website of Channel 12 that Nasrallah's removal brings Israel closer to what it really needs: freeing Lebanon from Hezbollah. He wrote that in a series of recent successful strikes, Israel demonstrated the apparent misery and paralysis of Hezbollah's apparent glory, which the Islamic Republic of Iran was proud of; this is while not a single Israeli soldier has entered Lebanese territory. According to General Ziv, the restoration of Israel's deterrence (after failing to predict Hamas's attack on Israel) may lead to significant movements in the region and the world. However, these steps must be based on a plan, and the government must set it on a path that also achieves Israel's political goals. This former military figure emphasized that to achieve these goals, Israel must have the United States by its side, avoid irritating the Washington government, keep that country informed of its operations, and utilize the upcoming U.S. elections to create extraordinary regional achievements against the Iran, Russia, and China axis to neutralize the "Iranian octopus" and its allies, the Houthis and Iraqi militias.