Israeli Media: The Death of Raisi is 'Not Bad News for Israel'

About eight months after the extremist group Hamas attacked Israeli territory, leading to an unfinished war in Gaza, the incident of the helicopter crash carrying Ebrahim Raisi and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is the first global event that has distracted Israeli media from their relentless focus on the war and internal political turmoil. Although Israeli officials refer to the Islamic Republic of Iran as the 'Tehran Serpent' and the main supporter of Hamas and the establishment of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, they have repeatedly communicated to their media since Sunday night that Israel had no role in the Iranian helicopter crash. The news of the helicopter crash carrying the Iranian President and Foreign Minister occupied Israeli media during the hours when Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, was visiting Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, sidelining this event and many others in Israel. Experts on Iranian affairs and the region in Israeli media have examined the developments in Iran under the new conditions it faces, considering it a potentially strategically significant event in the region and beyond. The 'earthquake' in Iran's political system and the leadership crisis were discussed in Yedioth Ahronoth, which stated that the helicopter crash has destabilized both the Iranian political system in the near future and the preparation for the leadership succession struggle. Ebrahim Raisi, the President of the thirteenth government, and his entourage were killed in the helicopter crash. Contrary to many Iranian analysts who believe the president has little power in the Islamic Republic, Raz Tsimit, an expert on Iranian affairs, noted in this article that the president holds significant influence in managing the country, especially in domestic and economic matters, designs government policies, oversees their implementation, and chairs senior executive bodies like the Supreme National Security Council, which is responsible for formulating overarching strategies in foreign and security issues. Tsimit emphasized that Raisi's exit from the scene comes at a time when Iran is facing significant developments in domestic, regional, and international arenas and is grappling with a severe legitimacy crisis. After the suppression of protests from the 'Women, Life, Freedom' movement, all of Raisi's efforts to improve the situation and respond to the worsening economic and social problems of the country had failed. This article reminded that the very low public participation in the recent parliamentary elections clearly reflects the continuous decline in public trust in the institutions of this regime and the growing despair among large segments of society. Tsimit wrote that amid increasing criticism from the Iranian people, even from conservative government circles, Raisi was the only candidate the regime could endorse three years ago, and after reaching this position, he attempted to cleanse his name from the stain of participation in the mass executions of past decades and present a different persona, but he could not escape the image of a gray bureaucrat, which further fueled doubts about his chances of succeeding Khamenei. According to this Iranian affairs analyst, the absence of Raisi, who was the 'most loyal and unproblematic' president for Ali Khamenei among the five presidents during his leadership, is also 'a severe personal blow for the leader.' Tsimit discussed Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's record in Arab countries and his close ties to the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, noting that unlike Mohammad Javad Zarif's eight-year tenure as foreign minister, Amir-Abdollahian played a 'central role' in Iran's efforts to reduce tensions with Arab neighbors through his ability to speak Arabic and, alongside Raisi, promoted the government's policy of encouraging closer ties to the East based on deepening strategic partnerships with Russia and China. The article also highlighted Amir-Abdollahian's 'important role' in coordinating Iran's proxy groups in the region following the start of the Gaza war. (He was scheduled to travel to Beirut again this Thursday for talks with Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah.) Tsimit wrote that even if the crash of the helicopter carrying the Iranian president was due to adverse weather conditions, this event will join a long list of failures of the Islamic Republic in the memories of the Iranian people, such as the downing of the Ukrainian plane by a missile released from the air defense of the Revolutionary Guards, the regime's failed performance in dealing with disasters like COVID-19, and the security failures and sabotage attributed to Israel against Iran's nuclear and sensitive security facilities. The article emphasized that Iran's strategy will not change after Raisi's death, and the Islamic Republic is sufficiently prepared organizationally and legally to cope with such a situation. 'Not bad news for Israel,' but the speed of developments in Iran is different. Amos Harel, a commentator for Haaretz, also believes that Raisi's death will plunge the Iranian regime into a leadership succession crisis and further damage the already very weak public trust in the government. The newspaper highlighted Karim Sajadpour's assessment from the Carnegie Endowment in the U.S., who recently stated in an interview that such a development could accelerate the transition of the government to a fully military regime or, conversely, even its collapse. According to Harel, 'Iran's strategic success and that of its proxy groups' in the Gaza war has created significant despair in Israel, and it is not surprising if Israel always has the true face of the regime in Tehran before its eyes, which is 'a murderous, oppressive, and corrupt group of clerics to the despised forces of the Revolutionary Guards,' a collection that actively encourages terrorism outside Iran while brutally suppressing its own people domestically. The article noted that in a regime where a group of very elderly men make important decisions, there is no free process for discovering and examining the facts, even regarding the helicopter crash of the president. The article reminded that Iran's support for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah has come at the cost of thousands of Israeli and Jewish lives worldwide – even if Hamas's internal leadership launched the Gaza war last October without coordinating with Tehran regarding the timing of the attack. According to Harel, Raisi's exit from the scene is 'not bad news for Israel,' but the situation in Iran is likely to evolve at a different pace than the surrounding developments in Israel. With an optimistic view, it is possible that Iran will be more preoccupied with its own affairs in the near future and exert less pressure on Hezbollah to continue its military front against Israel, but to say that the mysterious crash of a helicopter in the high mountains of Iran will end the bloody war close to Israel is nothing but optimism. 'The wear and tear of the Iranian Air Force' is likely one of the main factors behind the crash. Maariv reported that the news of the helicopter crash carrying the Iranian president has sparked a wave of speculation in Iran and across the Middle East, raising the question among conspiracy-loving people in the region about who wants the Iranian president gone. However, Colonel Moshe Allad, a Middle East expert from the Galilee Institute and a specialist in Lebanon and Syria, told Maariv that the wear and tear of the helicopter that Raisi was flying, in a country where a large part of its air fleet still belongs to the previous regime, could be one of the main reasons for this event, as a significant portion of daily or operational flights in Iran always carries a high risk of crashing. Moshe Allad examined two other possibilities: political rivals and internal enemies, in ending Raisi's term, but wrote that the succession war could be one of the possibilities for this event, as the power struggle among government officials has been ignited for some time with Ali Khamenei aging, and it is not unlikely that one of Raisi's rivals considered him an obstacle to reaching leadership. Retired Colonel Moshe Allad added that in the Middle Eastern world, immediate suspects for such events also enter people's imaginations, which is why from the moment the first news of the disappearance of the helicopter carrying Raisi was released, both Israel and Ukraine were mentioned as two countries that have been harmed by the Iranian regime. The absence of Amir-Abdollahian and the 'vacuum' in Iran's close relations with proxy groups. Channel 12 of Israeli television introduced Mohammad Mokhber, Raisi's first deputy, to the people of Israel, who is likely to assume temporary presidency in the next seven weeks, pending the leader's approval, and must prepare the conditions for early presidential elections in Iran. The Makor site emphasized that Raisi's absence is a blow to Iran's domestic policy in that he had been a potential candidate for the leader. However, the absence of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who was the coordinator with terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas and spoke Arabic with their leaders, will create a vacuum for the Tehran regime, at least in the short term. This article reminded that Amir-Abdollahian had made consecutive trips to Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, and other countries since the start of the Gaza war, and unlike previous foreign ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, he focused on the Middle East and had very close relations with many terrorist elements. 'A grim end' for Raisi like all other presidents of Iran, except Khamenei. The Israeli Hayom newspaper, a supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu's government, interviewed Ayelet Savion, an Iranian affairs expert at the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) in Jerusalem, who reminded that the only person who advanced in the presidency of Iran was Ali Khamenei, who became the leader after eight years in office, but for the rest of Iran's presidents, holding this position had a grim end. Ms. Savion believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran's approach regarding Israel will not change in the absence of Ebrahim Raisi, and Tehran and its proxy groups in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Jordan, and Yemen will not deviate from their positions and actions. This article indicates that the exit of an individual, even in a position like the presidency, which seems important, is not something that will deter the Islamic Republic of Iran from its perspective of expanding its influence and establishing a regional and global order based on the principles of the Islamic Revolution.