Israel's Difficult Choice: Iranian Bomb or Bombing Iran

Eliot Berhman, Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, examined the dimensions of escalating tensions in the Middle East in an article on the National Interest website on Friday, October 20. He noted that following the recent extensive missile attack by the Islamic Republic on Israel, Israel faces a difficult decision on how to effectively respond to this attack without triggering a large regional conflict. Berhman stated that the White House is calling for restraint to avoid disrupting global energy markets or provoking further hostilities, while Israeli analysts believe that the Iranian government may accelerate its nuclear weapons program. According to him, Israel is considering its options regarding the Iranian government, and meanwhile, the Middle East, and indeed the world, is anxiously awaiting Israel's response to the Islamic Republic's extensive missile attack on Israel. Berhman writes that the White House is concerned about a widespread regional war and has quietly pressured Jerusalem to limit its retaliatory actions to be 'proportional' to the Islamic Republic's attack and not target Iran's nuclear and energy facilities. He notes that Israel's calculations also have their own complexities, as the country is not seeking an option that would dangerously stabilize the status quo, allowing the Islamic Republic to carry out more direct attacks without fear of an Israeli response. Berhman states that a very weak response from Israel would also have this problem, as it would not sufficiently deter the Islamic Republic from further aggression. However, a more serious attempt to target Iran's oil infrastructure would lead to rising global energy prices, and on the other hand, an impactful action against the Islamic Republic's extensive nuclear program would also be very complex. He continues by mentioning that another factor may be decisive in shaping Israel's final response. According to Berhman, Israeli observers and analysts believe that the Islamic Republic is at a stage very close to building a nuclear bomb, and this issue could influence how Israel responds to the Islamic Republic's missile attack on the country. Berhman concludes that the significant increase in threats from the Islamic Republic, especially after recent developments - including the elimination of various leadership and command ranks of Hezbollah and Hamas - has convinced Israeli Hezbollah observers that Iranian leaders are on the verge of changing their long-term policy and this time they want to make a full-scale move to achieve a nuclear bomb. He states that such a policy change is a reason for the Islamic Republic's nuclear program to be included among Israel's attack targets. In this regard, he refers to a comment made by Nicolas Sarkozy, the former President of France, in 2007, regarding the options for confronting the Islamic Republic: either 'Iranian bomb or bombing Iran.' Reuters reported on Friday, October 20, citing two American officials, that the Iranian government has not yet made a decision to build a nuclear weapon. They told Reuters that the United States still believes that the Islamic Republic, despite recent strategic failures in Tehran, including the killing of Hezbollah leaders by Israel and two unsuccessful attempts to launch missile attacks on Israel, has not decided to build a nuclear weapon. This issue was raised by a senior Biden administration official and the spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), while William Burns, the head of the CIA, previously stated: 'There is no evidence that the Iranian government has decided to build a nuclear weapon, and if such a decision is made, the United States and its allies will likely know soon after that decision is made.' According to Reuters, based on statements from the spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has not currently made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003. It has been stated that intelligence assessments could help understand the reason behind the United States' opposition to Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program in the Islamic Republic's retaliatory missile attack on October 1. Earlier, Joe Biden, the President of the United States, stated that he would not support Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran's nuclear sites, remarks that faced severe criticism from Republicans. According to Reuters, American officials have long acknowledged that efforts to destroy the Iranian government's nuclear weapons program may only delay Tehran's attempts to produce a nuclear bomb and could even strengthen Tehran's resolve to do so. This article incorporates reports from the National Interest and Voice of America.