Israel's Hopes and Expectations from Trump in His Second Presidential Term

It was no secret in Israel, and perhaps even in Washington, that Benjamin Netanyahu and his government were openly eager and waiting for Donald Trump's return to power, even at the cost of potentially damaging relations with the United States should the Democratic candidate win. The main reason for this eagerness is apparently the fear that Trump's return amid the direct military crisis between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel, as noted by Israeli and Western commentators, instills in the Iranian regime and represents a new nightmare for the Islamic Republic, which is currently in one of the weakest periods of its 46-year existence. Israeli media acknowledge that the Trump-Netanyahu relationship is not as warm as it once was, and Trump apparently remembers some past grievances against Netanyahu. According to media outlets like Kan TV and Army Radio, to make the most of the opportunity, Netanyahu was the first world leader not to wait for Trump's victory to be confirmed and sent a congratulatory message with his preferred wording: "Your historic great return to the White House." While Israeli media emphasize that the expectation of the elected American president from Benjamin Netanyahu is to end the Gaza war before he takes office on January 20, Israel, for its part, hopes that Donald Trump will "settle accounts to the end" with Iran, especially regarding its military nuclear capabilities. Yoav Limor, a military and security commentator for the Netanyahu-supporting newspaper Israel Hayom, wrote on November 8 that Trump's return to power offers not insignificant opportunities for Israel, but it also raises many questions, the most central of which revolves around the elected president's policy towards Iran. According to him, Israel has largely neutralized Iran's regional capabilities in its recent wars and has put Tehran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon under pressure, but it has not neutralized Tehran's ambitions. Israel has stated that it will prevent the rebuilding of Iran's military capabilities in the region and for this purpose, it needs a stable foothold in Washington to keep its options open for offensive operations even after the current war. This commentator wrote that Iran's nuclear program requires a different approach; Trump and his associates have repeatedly stated in recent months that they no longer consider sanctions on Iran effective, and Israel is seeking a credible military threat on the table, and given the progress of Iran's nuclear program, this may be almost the last opportunity to confront it and Trump's legacy will be established as a leader who prevented the nuclearization of the Ayatollah regime. Meir Ben-Shabbat, a former national security advisor of Israel, also wrote on November 9 in Israel Hayom that with Trump's victory, the weights that had been tied to the Israeli army due to the potential of being dragged into international courts regarding the Gaza war have been lifted, and his approach, especially in this regard, that clear actions against Iran and its proxies must be taken quickly, helps achieve Israel's goals in the war. According to Mr. Ben-Shabbat, while the Biden administration's appeasement towards Iran has emboldened the Tehran regime and its proxies in the region and has effectively weakened America's position in the region, Trump's aggressive stance against Iran and its proxies, his commitment to Israel and key countries opposing the Iranian regime, his positions towards international institutions, and finally, his economic approach that demands tangible and clear results, all provide sufficient reasons for Tehran and its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza to be concerned. On the day of Trump's victory announcement, Michael Evans, one of Trump's advisors and responsible for his communications with the evangelical Christian community in America, told Israel Hayom that the elected president has already messaged Benjamin Netanyahu that the war must be finished before January 20 (the day of the inauguration and return to the White House), and in his new term, he wants to be "a messenger of peace, not war," and is eager to expand the Abraham Accords, including between Israel and Saudi Arabia and other countries. However, Mr. Evans added that the Trump administration believes that striking the "Iranian snake" is a necessity and Israel must bankrupt the Iranian government by hitting its economic capabilities, and this damage should be done by attacking refineries and oil ports to dry up its main source of income. According to this Trump advisor, once this is accomplished, "Tehran's proxies; Hamas, Hezbollah, and others will be crippled, and resolving their issues will be easy." Michael Evans also stated that Trump's experience from his first presidential term will open new windows of opportunity for Israel and the Middle East. He noted that David Friedman, who was the ambassador during Trump's first term and moved the embassy to Jerusalem, will play a central role in the second Trump administration's policy towards Israel and the region, whether in an official capacity or not. In another interview with the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth published on November 9, he spoke even more explicitly, stating that Trump sees Israel as a good force and its enemies as bad forces, "unlike Biden, who viewed Israel's enemies as victims." This Trump advisor added that Trump wants Israel to complete its work by January 20; eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah and attack Iran's oil facilities to collapse the Islamic Republic's economy, after which a historic peace agreement with Saudi Arabia and the Sunni world awaits Israel. Bloomberg reported that in light of the war in Gaza and Lebanon, Trump told Netanyahu in a phone conversation last month that "do whatever is necessary." The newspaper Maariv on November 7 recalled this Bloomberg report, adding that the two-and-a-half-month period until Trump's entry into the White House serves as a "blank check" for Israel to have freedom of action in the region, including regarding Iran's nuclear program. According to this newspaper, Israel views Trump's victory as an opportunity for a targeted attack to disrupt Iran's nuclear program. Nadao Shtraichler, a former advisor to Netanyahu, stated that with Trump's victory, the chances of an attack on Iran's nuclear sites have increased. He said, "Bibi is a historian and the son of a historian, and he knows how to identify important events to use them as a suitable opportunity." Bloomberg on the day of Trump's victory stated that Netanyahu and Trump know each other well and have worked together, but the elected president and his vice president have emphasized that they oppose long and costly wars, and JD Vance specifically stated in the election campaign that America will not go to war with Iran, and Trump also told American Muslim and Arab communities in his campaign that he would bring peace and seek a quick end to regional and non-regional wars. However, according to Paul Wallace, Iran is the only country Trump does not like, and Israel will try to perhaps draw his administration into having a share in striking Iran's nuclear facilities. However, Tal Schneider wrote on the Israeli site Zeit that Trump's return does not give Netanyahu a green light, and the prime minister himself is aware that Trump's decisive victory is a reason for a short celebration in Israel. Ms. Schneider wrote that there is no certainty that the joy of Israelis and Netanyahu will be long-lasting, and considering Trump's relations with Vladimir Putin and his numerous statements in his campaign regarding the Russian president, American promises to Israel in confronting Iran may be sidelined. This commentator also referred to Trump and his vice president JD Vance's statements in the election campaign opposing dragging America into war or any new war in the region and the world, which contradicts Israel's hopes for freedom of action in attacking Iran's nuclear sites. According to Ms. Schneider, it is unclear how Trump will be able to achieve all the plans he has promised regarding Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza in practice, but for Israel, expanding the Abraham Accords and steering Saudi Arabia towards signing a historic agreement with Israel will also suffice. Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and a politician close to Benjamin Netanyahu who is still tasked by him with carrying out some sensitive diplomatic matters regarding America, also told the Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic is extremely worried about Trump's return due to his willingness to take strong steps against Tehran, but it is possible that in the few weeks remaining until Biden's term ends, he, who calls himself a "Zionist," may want to leave a legacy and attack Iran regardless of electoral concerns. The Israeli economic newspaper Globes also reported on November 9 that under Biden's orders and as a serious warning to Tehran, new American forces have been dispatched to the Middle East, and B-52 bombers have been stationed in the region, prepared for any eventuality in defense of Israel. Amos Harel, a commentator for Haaretz, a media outlet opposing Benjamin Netanyahu's power and his government, also reminded on November 9 that Netanyahu encouraged Trump to withdraw from the JCPOA during his first term, bringing Tehran closer than ever to producing a nuclear bomb, but the celebrations in Israel for Trump's victory have come too early. According to this commentator, Mr. Trump thinks of his own interests first and foremost, and this will not always align with Netanyahu's government's interests, even though Trump "often publicly identifies with Israel and expresses sympathy for Netanyahu." However, Mr. Harel wrote: one thing is clear; the Islamic Republic of Iran fears Trump and his unpredictability, and this fear may reflect in Tehran's future strategic review, and in the short term, Iran must weigh whether it is worth it to attack Israel again or not.